The role of information efficiency in exchange rate forecasts: evidence from survey data

La previsione \ue8 un atteggiamento naturale di uomini e donne: si fanno previsioni perch\ue9 per prendere determinate decisioni oggi, bisogna sapere come sar\ue0 il mondo domani, e quindi come il futuro stato del mondo influenzer\ue0 il risultato delle scelte. In finanza, il termine "previsione" si riferisce alle aspettative degli individui sulla tendenza futura delle variabili studiate, sulla base di informazioni o intuizioni, a partire dal presupposto che gli individui abbiano una buona conoscenza del sistema in cui operano e dell'economia politica. Questa tesi, sviluppata in tre capitoli, ha come tema principale l'irrazionalit\ue0 degli investitori generata dall'inefficienza delle informazioni. L'analisi \ue8 stata effettuata sulle previsioni in valuta euro-dollaro presentate da varie istituzioni come banche, divisioni di ricerca di banche e centri di ricerca. I dati disponibili provengono dalla piattaforma Bloomberg. Nel primo capitolo \ue8 stato sviluppato un modello che stima gli errori di previsione come parametri per la valutazione della capacit\ue0 predittiva di ciascun predittore, mostrando se la differenza di valore assoluto tra il tasso spot e la previsione o revisione emessa aumenta, diminuisce o rimane invariata nel tempo per valutare la capacit\ue0 degli istituti finanziari di incorporare nuove informazioni in modo completo e tempestivo nel percorso temporale che porta alla data terminale per la quale \ue8 stata emessa la previsione. I risultati in accordo con la letteratura esistente hanno mostrato che le revisioni peggiorano le previsioni precedentemente emesse anzich\ue9 migliorarle, in tutti gli orizzonti considerati. Ci\uf2 significa che i predittori non riescono a imparare dai propri errori e quindi non riescono a incorporare nuove informazioni in modo efficiente. Inoltre, \ue8 stato dimostrato che i predittori avrebbero ottenuto un errore di previsione in un valore assoluto inferiore, utilizzando il modello di camminata casuale o emettendo una previsione pari al tasso spot noto al momento della previsione. Inoltre, al fine di rafforzare i risultati raggiunti nel primo capitolo, le previsioni dei predittori disponibili sono state analizzate attraverso il test di Hurst. L'applicazione di un coefficiente di memoria a lungo termine permette di capire in che misura le previsioni passate influenzano le previsioni future. Maggiore \ue8 il valore del coefficiente in un intervallo compreso tra 0 e 1, maggiore sar\ue0 la memoria lunga della serie storica. I risultati hanno mostrato valori quasi sempre maggiori di 0,5, punto in cui si pu\uf2 affermare l'efficienza delle variabili analizzate. Infine, nel terzo capitolo di questo documento, \ue8 stato applicato il test statistico di Toda e Yamamoto (1995) con l'obiettivo di mostrare che i predittori, sebbene chiaramente inefficienti, come dimostrato dall'analisi del camminare casuale (primo capitolo) e dai test di Hurst (secondo capitolo) sono collegati da un meccanismo di causa ed effetto, che mostra l'esistenza di un'inefficienza di massa. L'idea \ue8 stata quella di analizzare se l'inefficienza dei predittori a lungo termine sia generata o meno da un meccanismo di causa ed effetto, che spinge le banche pi\uf9 importanti ad agire come leader del mercato, influenzando le scelte e le previsioni di tutti gli altri istituti finanziari

Role of cerium oxide in bioactive glasses during catalytic dissociation of hydrogen peroxide

The addition of cerium oxide to bioactive glasses, important materials for bone tissue regeneration, has been shown to induce multifunctionality, combining a significant bioactivity with antioxidant properties. We provide a real time investigation of the evolution of the electronic properties of highly diluted cerium ions in a liquid environment containing hydrogen peroxide - the most abundant reactive oxygen species in living cells. This challenging task is undertaken by means of high-energy resolution fluorescence detected by X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy at the Ce L-3 edge. We investigate samples with variable compositions and different morphologies. We relate the observed spectroscopic changes not only to variations in the concentration of the two Ce oxidation states in the samples, but also to changes in the local atomic environment of Ce ions, providing a clear picture of the role of cerium ions in the dissociation of hydrogen peroxide. The obtained results contribute to the understanding of the mechanisms that come into play in the process and provide a basis for the optimization of the functionalities of this class of materials

CMR T2* Technique for Segmental and Global Quantification of Myocardial Iron: Multicentre Transferability and Healthcare Impact Evaluation

The multislice multiecho T2* technique is transferable among scanners with good reproducibility. The network seems to be a robust and scalable system in which T2* CMR based cardiac iron overload assessment is available, accessible and reachable for a significant and increasing number of thalassemia patients, reducing the mean distance from the patients\u27 locations to the CMR sites

Early disruption of photoreceptor cell architecture and loss of vision in a humanized pig model of usher syndromes

Usher syndrome (USH) is the most common form of monogenic deaf-blindness. Loss of vision is untreatable and there are no suitable animal models for testing therapeutic strategies of the ocular constituent of USH, so far. By introducing a human mutation into the harmonin-encoding USH1C gene in pigs, we generated the first translational animal model for USH type 1 with characteristic hearing defect, vestibular dysfunction, and visual impairment. Changes in photoreceptor architecture, quantitative motion analysis, and electroretinography were characteristics of the reduced retinal virtue in USH1C pigs. Fibroblasts from USH1C pigs or USH1C patients showed significantly elongated primary cilia, confirming USH as a true and general ciliopathy. Primary cells also proved their capacity for assessing the therapeutic potential of CRISPR/Cas-mediated gene repair or gene therapy in vitro. AAV-based delivery of harmonin into the eye of USH1C pigs indicated therapeutic efficacy in vivo

Deep phenotyping of the neuroimaging and skeletal features in KBG syndrome: a study of 53 patients and review of the literature

Background: KBG syndrome is caused by haploinsufficiency of ANKRD11and is characterised by macrodontia of upper central incisors, distinctive facial features, short stature, skeletal anomalies, developmental delay, brain malformations and seizures. The central nervous system (CNS) and skeletal features remain poorly defined. Methods: CNS and/or skeletal imaging were collected from molecularly confirmed individuals with KBG syndrome through an international network. We evaluated the original imaging and compared our results with data in the literature. Results: We identified 53 individuals, 44 with CNS and 40 with skeletal imaging. Common CNS findings included incomplete hippocampal inversion and posterior fossa malformations; these were significantly more common than previously reported (63.4% and 65.9% vs 1.1% and 24.7%, respectively). Additional features included patulous internal auditory canal, never described before in KBG syndrome, and the recurrence of ventriculomegaly, encephalic cysts, empty sella and low-lying conus medullaris. We found no correlation between these structural anomalies and epilepsy or intellectual disability. Prevalent skeletal findings comprised abnormalities of the spine including scoliosis, coccygeal anomalies and cervical ribs. Hand X-rays revealed frequent abnormalities of carpal bone morphology and maturation, including a greater delay in ossification compared with metacarpal/phalanx bones. Conclusion: This cohort enabled us to describe the prevalence of very heterogeneous neuroradiological and skeletal anomalies in KBG syndrome. Knowledge of the spectrum of such anomalies will aid diagnostic accuracy, improve patient care and provide a reference for future research on the effects ofANKRD11variants in skeletal and brain development

Chromosomes 4 and 8 implicated in a genome wide SNP linkage scan of 762 prostate cancer families collected by the ICPCG

BACKGROUND In spite of intensive efforts, understanding of the genetic aspects of familial prostate cancer (PC) remains largely incomplete. In a previous microsatellite‐based linkage scan of 1,233 PC families, we identified suggestive evidence for linkage (i.e., LOD ≥ 1.86) at 5q12, 15q11, 17q21, 22q12, and two loci on 8p, with additional regions implicated in subsets of families defined by age at diagnosis, disease aggressiveness, or number of affected members. METHODS In an attempt to replicate these findings and increase linkage resolution, we used the Illumina 6000 SNP linkage panel to perform a genome‐wide linkage scan of an independent set of 762 multiplex PC families, collected by 11 International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics (ICPCG) groups. RESULTS Of the regions identified previously, modest evidence of replication was observed only on the short arm of chromosome 8, where HLOD scores of 1.63 and 3.60 were observed in the complete set of families and families with young average age at diagnosis, respectively. The most significant linkage signals found in the complete set of families were observed across a broad, 37 cM interval on 4q13–25, with LOD scores ranging from 2.02 to 2.62, increasing to 4.50 in families with older average age at diagnosis. In families with multiple cases presenting with more aggressive disease, LOD scores over 3.0 were observed at 8q24 in the vicinity of previously identified common PC risk variants, as well as MYC , an important gene in PC biology. CONCLUSIONS These results will be useful in prioritizing future susceptibility gene discovery efforts in this common cancer. Prostate 72:410–426, 2012. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90245/1/21443_ftp.pd

Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) treatment: an Italian nationwide propensity score-matched cohort study investigating laparoscopic vs open approach

BackgroundPerforated peptic ulcer (PPU) remain a surgical emergency accounting for 37% of all peptic ulcer-related deaths. Surgery remains the standard of care. The benefits of laparoscopic approach have been well-established even in the elderly. However, because of inconsistent results with specific regard to some technical aspects of such technique surgeons questioned the adoption of laparoscopic approach. This leads to choose the type of approach based on personal experience. The aim of our study was to critically appraise the use of the laparoscopic approach in PPU treatment comparing it with open procedure.MethodsA retrospective study with propensity score matching analysis of patients underwent surgical procedure for PPU was performed. Patients undergoing PPU repair were divided into: Laparoscopic approach (LapA) and Open approach (OpenA) groups and clinical-pathological features of patients in the both groups were compared.ResultsA total of 453 patients underwent PPU simple repair. Among these, a LapA was adopted in 49% (222/453 patients). After propensity score matching, 172 patients were included in each group (the LapA and the OpenA). Analysis demonstrated increased operative times in the OpenA [OpenA: 96.4 +/- 37.2 vs LapA 88.47 +/- 33 min, p = 0.035], with shorter overall length of stay in the LapA group [OpenA 13 +/- 12 vs LapA 10.3 +/- 11.4 days p = 0.038]. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality [OpenA 26 (15.1%) vs LapA 18 (10.5%), p = 0.258]. Focusing on morbidity, the overall rate of 30-day postoperative morbidity was significantly lower in the LapA group [OpenA 67 patients (39.0%) vs LapA 37 patients (21.5%) p = 0.002]. When stratified using the Clavien-Dindo classification, the severity of postoperative complications was statistically different only for C-D 1-2.ConclusionsBased on the present study, we can support that laparoscopic suturing of perforated peptic ulcers, apart from being a safe technique, could provide significant advantages in terms of postoperative complications and hospital stay

Gastro-intestinal emergency surgery: Evaluation of morbidity and mortality. Protocol of a prospective, multicenter study in Italy for evaluating the burden of abdominal emergency surgery in different age groups. (The GESEMM study)

Gastrointestinal emergencies (GE) are frequently encountered in emergency department (ED), and patients can present with wide-ranging symptoms. more than 3 million patients admitted to US hospitals each year for EGS diagnoses, more than the sum of all new cancer diagnoses. In addition to the complexity of the urgent surgical patient (often suffering from multiple co-morbidities), there is the unpredictability and the severity of the event. In the light of this, these patients need a rapid decision-making process that allows a correct diagnosis and an adequate and timely treatment. The primary endpoint of this Italian nationwide study is to analyze the clinicopathological findings, management strategies and short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal emergency procedures performed in patients over 18. Secondary endpoints will be to evaluate to analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores to define the most suitable scoring system for gastro-intestinal surgical emergency. The primary outcomes are 30-day overall postoperative morbidity and mortality rates. Secondary outcomes are 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality rates, stratified for each procedure or cause of intervention, length of hospital stay, admission and length of stay in ICU, and place of discharge (home or rehabilitation or care facility). In conclusion, to improve the level of care that should be reserved for these patients, we aim to analyze the clinicopathological findings, management strategies and short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal emergency procedures performed in patients over 18, to analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores and to define new tools suitable for EGS. This process could ameliorate outcomes and avoid futile treatments. These results may potentially influence the survival of many high-risk EGS procedure

Analysis of Xq27-28 linkage in the international consortium for prostate cancer genetics (ICPCG) families.

BACKGROUND: Genetic variants are likely to contribute to a portion of prostate cancer risk. Full elucidation of the genetic etiology of prostate cancer is difficult because of incomplete penetrance and genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity. Current evidence suggests that genetic linkage to prostate cancer has been found on several chromosomes including the X; however, identification of causative genes has been elusive. METHODS: Parametric and non-parametric linkage analyses were performed using 26 microsatellite markers in each of 11 groups of multiple-case prostate cancer families from the International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics (ICPCG). Meta-analyses of the resultant family-specific linkage statistics across the entire 1,323 families and in several predefined subsets were then performed. RESULTS: Meta-analyses of linkage statistics resulted in a maximum parametric heterogeneity lod score (HLOD) of 1.28, and an allele-sharing lod score (LOD) of 2.0 in favor of linkage to Xq27-q28 at 138 cM. In subset analyses, families with average age at onset less than 65 years exhibited a maximum HLOD of 1.8 (at 138 cM) versus a maximum regional HLOD of only 0.32 in families with average age at onset of 65 years or older. Surprisingly, the subset of families with only 2-3 affected men and some evidence of male-to-male transmission of prostate cancer gave the strongest evidence of linkage to the region (HLOD = 3.24, 134 cM). For this subset, the HLOD was slightly increased (HLOD = 3.47 at 134 cM) when families used in the original published report of linkage to Xq27-28 were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was not strong support for linkage to the Xq27-28 region in the complete set of families, the subset of families with earlier age at onset exhibited more evidence of linkage than families with later onset of disease. A subset of families with 2-3 affected individuals and with some evidence of male to male disease transmission showed stronger linkage signals. Our results suggest that the genetic basis for prostate cancer in our families is much more complex than a single susceptibility locus on the X chromosome, and that future explorations of the Xq27-28 region should focus on the subset of families identified here with the strongest evidence of linkage to this region.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are