Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by −4% (−16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%

Multibranch modelling of flow and water quality in the Dhaka river system, Bangladesh: impacts of future development plans and climate change

Long-term development and pollution clean-up plans are a continuing feature of megacities such as Dhaka, Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs to deal with a legacy of past pollution and manage current pollution from a rapidly expanding economy. Surveys in the rivers around Dhaka show extremely high pollution and very low dissolved oxygen levels, with subsequent ecological impacts. Millions of people are not on public treatment of effluents and thousands of factories discharge into the rivers. The Bangladesh Government is planning to install over 12 large Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs) over the next 20 years. To assess the efficacy of these, a water quality model has been applied to the Dhaka River System. Results show that the proposed plan has beneficial effects in the short term for the most densely populated areas of Dhaka, along the Turag and Buriganga Rivers, and in the medium term in other parts of the city (Tongi Khal). However, in several reaches dissolved oxygen levels will remain low or very low due to the lack of STP capacity, remaining misconnections of untreated sewage and large effluent loads. The proposed STPs, while certainly beneficial, will need to be upgraded in the future if the predicted rates of population growth are confirmed and industrial pollution is not significantly reduced alongside. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the Dhaka River System water quality, with increased monsoon flows and lower summer flows, but these changes will not greatly affect the extremes of water quality to any great extent due to the overwhelming impact of pollutant discharges into the system

Assessing heavy metal contamination using biosensors and a multi-branch integrated catchment model in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Metal pollution in rivers from untreated industrial and domestic wastewater is a major issue in economically developing countries worldwide. The Awash River Basin in Ethiopia is one of those rivers that faces rising heavy metal concentrations due to poor wastewater management and loose law enforcement controlling effluent discharge into rivers. In this study, surface water and wastewater samples were collected within the Awash River Basin, with metals analysis using ICP-MS techniques. Acute toxicity of water was determined using new molecular biosensor technology based on engineered luminescent bacteria. A multi-branch Integrated Catchment Model (INCA) for metals, including Arsenic, Cadmium, Chromium, Copper, Lead, Manganese, and Zinc was applied to the Awash River Basin to simulate the impact of tannery discharge on the river water pollution levels and to evaluate a set of treatment scenarios for pollution control. Results show that all samples from tannery wastewater have high levels of metals, such as Chromium and Manganese with high levels of toxicities. River water samples from upper Awash near Addis Ababa showed elevated concentrations of heavy metals due to the untreated wastewater from the dense population and a large number of industries in that area. The modeling scenarios indicate that improved wastewater management will reduce the metal concentration significantly. With a 50% reduction in effluent concentrations, the mean concentrations of heavy metals (such as Chromium) over two years would be able to reach 20 to 50% reduction in river water samples

Dynamic response of land use and river nutrient concentration to long-term climatic changes

The combined indirect and direct impacts of land use change and climate change on river water quality were assessed. A land use allocation model was used to evaluate the response of the catchment land use to long-term climatic changes. Its results were used to drive a water quality model and assess the impact of climatic alterations on freshwater nitrate and phosphorus concentrations. Climatic projections were employed to estimate the likelihood of such response. The River Thames catchment (UK) was used as a case-study. If land use is considered as static parameter, according to the model results, climate change alone should reduce the average nitrate concentration, although just by a small amount, by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to reduced runoff (and lower export of nitrate from agricultural soils) and increased instream denitrification, and should increase the average phosphorus concentration by 12% by the 2050s in the Lower Thames, due to a reduction of the effluent dilution capacity of the river flow. However, the results of this study also show that these long-term climatic alterations are likely to lead to a reduction in the arable land in the Thames, replaced by improved grassland, due to a decrease in agriculture profitability in the UK. Taking into account the dynamic co-evolution of land use with climate, the average nitrate concentration is expected to be decreased by around 6% by the 2050s in both the upper and the lower Thames, following the model results, and the average phosphorus concentration increased by 13% in the upper Thames and 5% in the lower Thames. On the long term (2080s), nitrate is expected to decrease by 9% and 8% (upper and lower Thames respectively) and phosphorus not to change in the upper thames and increase by 5% in the lower Thames

Modelling the potential for local management practices to offset climate change impacts on freshwater macroinvertebrate communities

A robust understanding of the interactions between global and local anthropogenic stressors is crucial for ecosystem management in the Anthropocene. Manipulative experiments in the laboratory or in the field can be used to build knowledge about the physiological and ecological effects of stressors, but predicting the combined landscape-scale effects of global stressors such as climate change, and local stressors such as land-use change requires a different approach. Here we used water quality and hydrology process-based models of entire river catchments in combination with a large biomonitoring dataset to predict the responses of macroinvertebrate communities under different climate change and land-use change scenarios. Using the River Thames in the U.K. as a model system, we predicted changes in water quality (temperature, flow, phosphorus [P], nitrogen, dissolved oxygen [DO]) and subsequent changes in macroinvertebrate communities for two climate change scenarios, individually and in combination with intensified agriculture and reduced P pollution (representing improved wastewater treatment). Our models predicted that water-quality changes associated with climate change may not influence total species richness, but that community composition will shift towards more pollution-tolerant and common taxa based on responses of community indices and taxon-specific responses. We also found that the negative impacts of climate change on water quality (e.g., increased P concentration, decreased DO concentration) accumulate through the catchment, but that local land-use practices influencing P dynamics can modify this trend. Furthermore, although the intensified agriculture scenario was predicted to have minimal impacts on macroinvertebrate communities (a result potentially related to shifting baselines as the Thames is already heavily polluted), we found that reduced P pollution resulting from improved wastewater treatment was able to mostly offset the negative impacts of climate change on macroinvertebrate communities. Our results demonstrate that using process-based models to study networks of interacting stressors at a landscape scale can provide useful insights into the ecological impacts of anthropogenic global change, and adds support to the idea that management of local stressors has the potential to mitigate some of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems

Assessment of risks to public water supply from low flows and harmful water quality in a changing climate

Water resources planning and management by water utilities have traditionally been based on consideration of water availability. However, the reliability of public water supplies can also be influenced by the quality of water bodies. In this study, we proposed a framework that integrates the analysis of risks of inadequate water quality and risks of insufficient water availability. We have developed a coupled modeling system that combines hydrological modeling of river water quantity and quality, rules for water withdrawals from rivers into storage reservoirs, and dynamical simulation of harmful algal blooms in storage reservoirs. We use this framework to assess the impact of climate change, demand growth, and land‐use change on the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method is tested on the River Thames catchment in the south of England. The results show that alongside the well‐known risks of rising water demand in the south of England and uncertain impacts of climate change, diffuse pollution from agriculture and effluent from upstream waste water treatment works potentially represent a threat to the reliability of public water supplies in London. We quantify the steps that could be taken to ameliorate these threats, though even a vigorous pollution‐prevention strategy would not be sufficient to offset the projected effects of climate change on water quality and the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method can help water utilities to recognize their system vulnerability and evaluate the potential solutions to achieve more reliable water supplies. supplie

During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient

This paper presents the hydrological and water quality response from a series of extreme storm events that passed across the UK during the winter of 2013/2014, in an experimental catchment with a strong rural-urban gradient across four nested sub-catchment areas. The Ray catchment in the upper Thames basin, UK, was extensively monitored using in-situ, high-resolution (15 minute) flow and water quality instrumentation. Dissolved oxygen, ammonium, turbidity and specific conductivity are used to characterise the water quality dynamics. The impact of the Swindon sewage treatment works (SSTW) on water chemistry at the catchment outlet is considerable. Hydrological and water-quality response varies considerably during the events, with the rural catchments exhibiting a much slower hydrological response compared to urban areas. A simple hydrological model (TETIS) was developed to provide insight into water sources in nested subcatchments, highlighting the disparity of the hydrological dynamics across contrasting land-uses during events. The variation in stormwater runoff sources impacts water quality signals with urban sites contributing to dilution dynamics in ammonium, whereas the more rural site experiences a peak in ammonium during the same event. Dissolved oxygen concentrations vary on a rural-urban gradient and experience a notable sag at the Water Eaton outlet (4.4mg/l) during the events, that would have resulted in significant ecological harm had they occurred during the summer in warmer temperatures. The water-quality legacy of these storms in the wider context of the hydrological year is somewhat negligible, with markedly poorer water quality signals being observed during the summer months of 2014. Although ammonium concentrations during the events are elevated (above the ‘good’ status threshold under the WFD), higher values are observed during spring and summer months. The high flows actually appear to flush contaminants out of the Ray and its subcatchments, though the urban sites demonstrate a resupply dynamic during interim dry periods. Data suggest winter storms following dry spells in urban catchments cause some short-lived and spatially extensive deteriorations in water quality. More chronic effects, although prolonged, are only seen downstream of SSTW. These are indicative of capacity of infrastructure being reached, and from the data do not appear to be severe enough to cause ecological harm

Using post-flood surveys and geomorphologic mapping to evaluate hydrological and hydraulic models: The flash flood of the Girona River (Spain) in 2007

This paper analyzes the Girona River (Spain) flash flood, occurred on the 12th of October 2007, combining hydrological and hydraulic modeling with geomorphologic mapping and post-flood survey information. This research aims to reproduce the flood event in order to understand and decipher the flood processes and dynamics on a system of prograding alluvial fans. The hydrological model TETIS was used to characterize the shape and dimension of the October 2007 Girona River hydrograph. Subsequently, the flood event was reproduced using the free surface flow module of the model RiverFlow2D. The combination of hydrological and hydraulic models was evaluated using post-flood surveys defining maximum flooded area and flood depths. Then, simulations with different peak discharges were carried out to estimate the hydro-geomorphologic response of the Girona River floodplain, through the identification of the activation thresholds in different geomorphic elements. Results showed that the unit peak discharge of the October 2007 flood event (5 m3 s−1 km−2) was among the largest ever recorded in the area, according to the existing literature. Likewise, the hydraulic model showed a good performance in reproducing the flood event (FitA = 76%, RMSE = 0.65 m and NSE = 0.6), despite the complexity of the case, an ephemeral and ungauged river. The model simulation revealed the existence of an activation pattern of paleochannels and alluvial fans, which was altered by the presence of some anthropogenic disturbances. This multidisciplinary approach proved to be a useful strategy for understanding flash flood processes in ungauged catchments. It allowed understanding the mechanisms governing floods in alluvial fans systems and it represented a solid contribution for early warning plans and risk mitigation policies.This collaborative research was financed with the projects CGL2013-44917-R and SLWAMED CGL2014-58127-C3-2, of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of the Spanish Government. Both projects were co-financed with FEDER funds. The observed rainfall and water discharge records were provided by "Sistema Automatic de Information Hidrologica (SAIH)", which belongs to the CHJ (Spain). This work was also possible due to the kind cooperation of the members of the Plataforma Ciutadana Riu Girona and several anonymous farmers interviewed during the field works. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their useful and thought-provoking comments.Segura-Beltrán, F.; Sanchis Ibor, C.; Morales-Hernández, M.; González-Sanchis, MDC.; Bussi, G.; Ortiz, E. (2016). Using post-flood surveys and geomorphologic mapping to evaluate hydrological and hydraulic models: The flash flood of the Girona River (Spain) in 2007. Journal of Hydrology. 541(Part A):310-329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.039S310329541Part

Impacts of climate change, land-use change and phosphorus reduction on phytoplankton in the River Thames (UK)

Potential increases of phytoplankton concentrations in river systems due to global warming and changing climate could pose a serious threat to the anthropogenic use of surface waters. Nevertheless, the extent of the effect of climatic alterations on phytoplankton concentrations in river systems has not yet been analysed in detail. In this study, we assess the impact of a change in precipitation and temperature on river phytoplankton concentration by means of a physically-based model. A scenario-neutral methodology has been employed to evaluate the effects of climate alterations on flow, phosphorus concentration and phytoplankton concentration of the River Thames (southern England). In particular, five groups of phytoplankton are considered, representing a range of size classes and pigment phenotypes, under three different land-use/land-management scenarios to assess their impact on phytoplankton population levels. The model results are evaluated within the framework of future climate projections, using the UK Climate Projections 09 (UKCP09) for the 2030s. The results of the model demonstrate that an increase in average phytoplankton concentration due to climate change is highly likely to occur, with the magnitude varying depending on the location along the River Thames. Cyanobacteria show significant increases under future climate change and land use change. An expansion of intensive agriculture accentuates the growth in phytoplankton, especially in the upper reaches of the River Thames. However, an optimal phosphorus removal mitigation strategy, which combines reduction of fertiliser application and phosphorus removal from wastewater, can help to reduce this increas