Trade-off between cost and accuracy in large-scale surface water dynamic modeling

Recent efforts have led to the development of the local inertia formulation (INER) for anaccurate but still cost-efficient representation of surface water dynamics, compared to the widely used kinematic wave equation (KINE). In this study, both formulations are evaluated over the Amazon basin in terms of computational costs and accuracy in simulating streamflows and water levels through synthetic experiments and comparisons against ground-based observations. Varying time steps are considered as part of the evaluation and INER at 60-second time step is adopted as the reference for synthetic experiments. Five hybrid (HYBR) realizations are performed based on maps representing the spatial distribution of the two formulations that physically represent river reach flow dynamics within the domain. Maps have fractions of KINE varying from 35.6% to 82.8%. KINE runs show clear deterioration along the Amazon river andmain tributaries, with maximum RMSE values for streamflow and water level reaching7827m(exp 3).s(exp -1) and 1379 cm near the basins outlet. However, KINE 20 is at least 25%more efficient than INER with low model sensitivity to longer time steps. A significant improvement is achieved with HYBR, resulting in maximum RMSE values of 3.9-292 m(exp 3).s(exp -1) for streamflows and 1.1-28.5 cm for water levels, and cost reduction of 6-16%, depending on the map used. Optimal results using HYBR are obtained when the local inertia formulation is used in about one third of the Amazon basin, reducing computational costs in simulations while preserving accuracy. However, that threshold may vary when applied to different regions, according to their hydrodynamics and geomorphological characteristics

Matriz de covariância corrigida para os modelos não-lineares da família exponencial

Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro Tecnológico. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia de ProduçãoOs modelos nao-lineares da familia exponencial e uma extensao dos modelos lineares generalizados, permitindo que o preditor da media seja nao-linear. Esses modelos, por serem menos restritivos, tem sido utilizados para modelar sistemas produtivos como mais uma ferramenta na tomada de decisao. Usualmente, os parametros desses modelos sao estimados pelo metodo de maxima verossimilhanca, que tem propriedades assintoticas de O(n-1), onde n e o tamanho da amostra. Portanto, para tamanhos de amostras pequenos, pode haver erros consideraveis, nas inferencias. Essa Tese tem como objetivo obter uma expressao analitica para a matriz de covariancia de segunda ordem do estimador de maxima verossimilhanca para os parametros dos modelos nao-lineares da familia exponencial que contribuira no procedimento de inferencia da verossimilhanca, quando o tamanho da amostra e pequeno. Esse estimador, que nada mais e do que uma correcao do que vem sendo utilizado, tem propriedades assint´oticas de O(n-2). A metodologia adotada consistiu em obter os cumulantes desses modelos e substitui-los na funcao geratriz dos cumulantes, que, pela propriedade de invariancia sob permutacao de indices nos modelos nao-lineares da familia exponencial, pode ser simplificada e expressa em termos de matrizes. A expressao obtida e de facil implementacao computacional, uma vez que consiste de operacoes com matrizes. O estimador de segunda ordem da matriz de covariancia foi avaliado por um estudo de simulacao que mostrou que esse e indispensavel para amostras de tamanho pequeno a moderado. Para ilustrar o uso da tecnica proposta, uma aplicacoes na avaliacao da qualidade do papel cujo modelo que descreve a variavel resposta grau de refino das fibras e log-linear e componente aleatoria gama. Nessa aplicacao evidenciou-se a necessidade dos estimadores de O(n-2)

Monitoring River Basin Development and Variation in Water Resources in Transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea Using Remote Sensing

This paper presents methods of monitoring river basin development and water variability for the transboundary river in North and South Korea. River basin development, such as dams and water infrastructure in transboundary rivers, can be a potential factor of tensions between upstream and downstream countries since dams constructed upstream can adversely affect downstream riparians. However, because most of the information related to North Korea has been limited to the public, the information about dams constructed and their locations were inaccurate in many previous studies. In addition, water resources in transboundary rivers can be exploited as a political tool. Specifically, due to the unexpected water release from the Hwanggang Dam, upstream of the transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea, six South Koreans died on 6 September 2009. The Imjin River can be used as a political tool by North Korea, and seven events were reported as water conflicts in the Imjin River from 2001 to 2016. In this paper, firstly, we have updated the information about the dams constructed over the Imjin River in North Korea using multi-temporal images with a high spatial resolution (15-30 cm) obtained from Google Earth. Secondly, we analyzed inter- and intra-water variability over the Hwanggang Reservoir using open-source images obtained from the Global Surface Water Explorer. We found a considerable change in water surface variability before and after 2008, which might result from the construction of the Hwanggang Dam. Thirdly, in order to further investigate intra-annual water variability, we present a method monitoring water storage changes of the Hwanggang Reservoir using the area-elevation curve (AEC), which was derived from multi-sensor Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (Sentinel-1A and -1B) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Since many previous studies for estimating water storage change have depended on satellite altimetry dataset and optical images for deriving AEC, the method adopted in this study is the only application for such inaccessible areas since no altimetry ground track exists for the Hwanggang Reservoir and because clouds can block the study area for wet seasons. Moreover, this study has newly proven that unexpected water release can occur in dry seasons because the water storage in the Hwanggang Reservoir can be high enough to conduct a release that can be used as a geopolitical tool. Using our method, potential risks can be mitigated, not in response to a water release, but based on pre-event water storage changes in the Hwanggang Reservoir

Rivers and Floodplains as Key Components of Global Terrestrial Water Storage Variability

This study quantifies the contribution of rivers and floodplains to terrestrial water storage (TWS) variability. We use stateoftheart models to simulate land surface processes and river dynamics and to separate TWS into its main components. Based on a proposed impact index, we show that surface water storage (SWS) contributes 8% of TWS variability globally, but that contribution differs widely among climate zones. Changes in SWS are a principal component of TWS variability in the tropics, where major rivers flow over arid regions and at high latitudes. SWS accounts for ~2227% of TWS variability in both the Amazon and Nile Basins. Changes in SWS are negligible in the Western U.S., Northern Africa, Middle East, and central Asia. Based on comparisons with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experimentbased TWS, we conclude that accounting for SWS improves simulated TWS in most of South America, Africa, and Southern Asia, confirming that SWS is a key component of TWS variability

Behavior, knowledge and perception of risks about sexually transmitted diseases in a group of people over 50 years old

Objetivou-se analisar o comportamento, conhecimento e percepção de risco às doenças sexualmente transmissíveis/AIDS (DST/AIDS) em pessoas com 50 anos e mais de idade. Foram entrevistados 165 servidores de uma secretaria estadual de Mato Grosso, Brasil. Utilizou-se o teste de qui-quadrado e regressão logística para análise da percepção do risco e variáveis do comportamento e conhecimento sobre DST/AIDS. A maioria dos entrevistados é do sexo feminino (60,6%), 63,2% tem parceiro fixo e 72,4% tiveram relação sexual nos últimos 6 meses e apenas 13,3% utilizam sempre o preservativo, dos quais 21,5% homens e 8% mulheres. Houve associação entre percepção de risco e não uso de preservativo na última relação sexual (pEl objetivo fue analizar aspectos de comportamiento, conocimiento y percepción de riesgo de las ETS/SIDA, en personas con 50 o más años de edad. Se entrevistaron 165 servidores de una Secretaría del estado de Mato Groso, Brasil. Se utilizó una prueba de Chi cuadrado y de regresión logística para analizar la percepción de riesgo y las variables de comportamiento y conocimiento sobre las ETS/SIDA. La mayoría de los entrevistados era del sexo femenino (60,6%); para el comportamiento un 63,2 % tenía pareja fija y un 72,4 % tuvo relación sexual en los últimos 6 meses; apenas el 13,3 % utiliza siempre preservativo, el 21,5 % de los hombres y el 8 % de las mujeres. Se demostró que existe una asociación entre la percepción de riesgo y el uso de preservativo en la última relación sexual (p < 0,001); y, que cualquier persona puede contraer una ETS/SIDA (p =0,039). El actual desafío de las políticas públicas es incrementar las acciones que tienen como objetivo la promoción de la salud de la población adulta y de los adultos mayores, principalmente en lo que se refiere a la sexualidad y a la vulnerabilidad delante de las ETS/SIDA.The goal was to analyze the behavior, knowledge and risk perception about sexually transmitted diseases / AIDS (STD/AIDS) in people over 50 years old. 165 public servants at a State Secretary in Mato Grosso, Brazil were interviewed. The chi-square test and logistic regression tests were used for the analysis of risk perception and the behavior and knowledge variables about STD/AIDS. Most of the respondents were female (60.6%), 63.2 had a fixed partner, 72.4% had sexual relations in the past six months, and only 13.3% always wore condoms, with 21.5% being male and 8% female. Perception of risk was associated with non-use of condoms in their last sexual relation (

Hydrological Modeling of the Peruvian-Ecuadorian Amazon Basin Using GPM-IMERG Satellite-Based Precipitation Dataset

In the last two decades, rainfall estimates provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) have proven applicable in hydrological studies. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, which provides the new generation of rainfall estimates, is now considered a global successor to TRMM. The usefulness of GPM data in hydrological applications, however, has not yet been evaluated over the Andean and Amazonian regions. This study uses GPM data provided by the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals (IMERG) (productfinal run) as input to a distributed hydrological model for the Amazon Basin of Peru and Ecuador for a 16-month period (from March 2014 to June 2015) when all datasets are available. TRMM products (TMPA V7, TMPA RT datasets) and a gridded precipitation dataset processed from observed rainfall are used for comparison. The results indicate that precipitation data derived from GPM-IMERG correspond more closely to TMPA V7 than TMPA RT datasets, but both GPM-IMERG and TMPA V7 precipitation data tend to overestimate, compared to observed rainfall (by 11.1 and 15.7 , respectively). In general, GPM-IMERG, TMPA V7 and TMPA RT correlate with observed rainfall, with a similar number of rain events correctly detected (20). Statistical analysis of modeled streamflows indicates that GPM-IMERG is as useful as TMPA V7 or TMPA RT datasets in southern regions (Ucayali basin). GPM-IMERG, TMPA V7 and TMPA RT do not properly simulate streamflows in northern regions (Maran and Napo basins), probably because of the lack of adequate rainfall estimates in northern Peru and the Ecuadorian Amazon

Fatores associados ao assédio moral no ambiente laboral do enfermeiro

OBJECTIVE: To identify nurses who are subject to workplace bullying and its associated factors. METHOD: Descriptive and exploratory study with a quantitative approach. The sample consisted of 199 nurses working in public and private sectors (N=388). For data collection, a graphic socio-professional questionnaire and the Leymann Inventory Psychological Terrorization were used, both in print or electronic format (May/September 2010). RESULTS: According to the data collected, 11.56% of the participants had been subject to bullying. Multivariate analysis showed that having children, working at Public Healthcare Units, working at an institution for a period between one and three years, currently dealing with acts of bullying and to feel bullied are risk factors for bullying. CONCLUSION: This study permitted a better understanding of the factors associated with bullying; however, a research based on samples of Brazilian nurses is only the first step to evaluate other factors of influence related to the organizational context.OBJETIVO: Identificar enfermeros víctimas de acoso moral en el trabajo y factores asociados. MÉTODO: Estudio descriptivo-exploratorio con aproximación cuantitativa. La muestra fue de 199 enfermeros, activos en el sector público y privado (N=388). Para recolectar los datos, fue utilizado un cuestionario sobre el perfil social y ocupacional y el Leymann Inventory Psychological Terrorization, ambos en formato impreso o electrónico (mayo/septiembre 2010). RESULTADOS: De acuerdo con los datos recolectados, el 11,56% de los sujetos estudiados fueron víctimas de acoso moral. En análisis multivariado indicó que tener hijos, actuar en las Unidades de Salud Pública, trabajar en la institución entre 1 y 3 años, afrontar actualmente conductas de acoso moral y sentirse asediado moralmente son factores de riesgo para el asedio moral. CONCLUSÍON: El estudio permitió una mejor comprensión de los factores asociados al acoso moral. Sin embargo, la investigación con base en muestras de enfermeros brasileños representa solamente el primer paso para evaluar otros factores condicionantes relacionados al contexto organizacional.OBJETIVO: identificar enfermeiros vítimas de assédio moral no trabalho e fatores associados. MÉTODO: estudo descritivo-exploratório, de abordagem quantitativa. A amostra foi composta por 199 enfermeiros, pertencentes ao setor público e privado (n=388). Para a coleta de dados utilizaram-se um questionário socioprofissiográfico e o Leymann Inventory Psychological Terrorization, ambos em formato impresso ou eletrônico (maio/setembro de 2010). RESULTADOS: de acordo com os dados obtidos, 11,56% dos sujeitos estudados foram vítimas de assédio moral. Análise multivariada apontou que possuir filhos, atuar nas unidades de saúde pública, trabalhar na instituição por período de 1 a 3 anos, enfrentar atualmente condutas de assédio moral e sentir-se assediado moralmente são fatores de risco para o assédio moral. CONCLUSÃO: o estudo possibilitou melhor compreensão dos fatores associados ao assédio moral, contudo, a investigação com base em amostras de enfermeiros brasileiros é apenas o primeiro passo na avaliação de outros fatores condicionantes, relacionados ao contexto organizacional

Effects of changes in use and soil cover on real evapotranspiration from the creation of a remote sensing product in the Xingu basin

Diversos estudos comprovaram que as mudanças na cobertura da terra de bacias hidrográficas afetam o ciclo hidrológico e suas variáveis. Na bacia do Xingu muitas áreas tiveram a substituição da vegetação por cultivos agrícolas e pastagens, enquanto outras foram desmatadas, principalmente na região do Arco do Desmatamento. Com as técnicas de sensoriamento remoto, é possível estimar a variável biofísica ETr para grandes áreas, que configura o caso da bacia de estudo. Os dados de evapotranspiração utilizados neste trabalho foram obtidos por meio da criação do produto que retorna a mediana conjugada dos modelos MOD16A2, PML_V2, Terra Climate, GLEAM_v3.3a, FLUXCOM, SSEBop, FLDAS e ERA5-Land, com posterior aplicação dos dados fornecidos pela Coleção 6 da rede MapBiomas, permitindo a união do uso e cobertura do solo com a estimativa da evapotranspiração real para as faixas de conversão: floresta para pasto; floresta para terra agrícola; cerrado para pasto; cerrado para terra agrícola. O intervalo definido para o estudo corresponde aos anos de 1985 a 2020, conforme a série histórica disponível no MapBiomas. Após a aplicação de linguagens de programação para filtrar os dados provenientes, os resultados foram submetidos a testes estatísticos capazes de relacionar os efeitos causados pelas alterações do solo na evapotranspiração. No período total de dados (1985–2020), foram constatados decréscimos nas áreas de floresta (-16,23%), com conversão em áreas de pastagens na ordem de +12,51% e em áreas agrícolas chegando a +5,5%. No mesmo período, a evapotranspiração nas faixas de conversão sofreu alterações ínfimas, tendo destaque apenas no intervalo 2009–2020, quando foi reportada tendência de decréscimo de 0,095 mm/mês para a substituição “floresta para pasto” e a 0,090 mm/mês em “cerrado para pasto".Several studies have shown that changes in land cover within a given watershed significantly affect the hydrological cycle and its variables. In the Xingu basin, many areas had their vegetation replaced by agricultural crops and pastures, while deforestation has been particularly prevalent in the region known as the Arch of Deforestation. Using remote sensing techniques enable the estimation of biophysical variable ETr for extensive areas, as exemplified in the study basin. Evapotranspiration data used in this work were obtained by creating a product that returns the combined median of the MOD16A2, PML_V2, Terra Climate, GLEAM_v3.3a, FLUXCOM, SSEBop, FLDAS, and ERA5-Land models, with subsequent application of the data provided by Collection 6 of the MapBiomas network, allowing the integration of land use and land cover information with real evapotranspiration estimates for the transition ranges: Forest to Pasture; Forest to Agricultural Land; Cerrado to Pasture; Cerrado to Agricultural Land. The interval defined for the study corresponds to the years 1985 to 2020, according to the historical series available on MapBiomas. After applying programming languages to filter the data, the results underwent statistical analysis to elucidate the effects of soil changes on evapotranspiration. Over the total data period (1985-2020), there was a decrease in forest areas (-16.23%), with conversion to pasture areas, in the order of +12.51%, and agricultural areas, reaching +5.5%. In the same timeframe, evapotranspiration in conversion bands underwent minimal changes, notably from 2009 to 2020, where a decreasing trend was reported of 0.095 mm/month for the “forest to pasture” substitution, and 0.090 mm/month in “Cerrado for pasture"