How can ocean warming at the NW Iberian Peninsula affect mussel aquaculture?

Understanding and forecasting future consequences of climate change in mussel aquaculture industry require the assessment of changes in physical parameters which may affect mussel growth. The FLOW module of Delft3D model forced with climatic data was validated and calibrated for the Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula), one of the areas with the highest mussel production in the world. This model was used to perform historical (1999-2018) and future (2080-2099) projections. Temperature and stratification water conditions were compared in order to determine at what extent climate change can affect mussel production. Thermal stress will increase in a non-homogeneous throughout the water column and the comfort level of mussels will be reduced by more than 60% in the upper layers and more than 30% in deep layers in most of the mussel raft polygons. Water column stratification will increase ~ 5-10 cycles h-1 in most of the polygons reducing the vertical exchange of nutrients and oxygen. Hereby changes in water temperature and stratification at the end of the century will not be favorable for mussel growth.publishe

Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Albora´n Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Albora´n watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.CGL2009-11316 (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain, and FEDER

Coastal warming under climate change: global, faster and heterogeneous

The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982-2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031-2050 relative to 1995-2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming.publishe