Can Europe recover without credit?

Data from 135 countries covering five decades suggests that creditless recoveries, in which the stock of real credit does not return to the pre-crisis level for three years after the GDP trough, are not rare and are characterised by remarkable real GDP growth rates: 4.7 percent per year in middle-income countries and 3.2 percent per year in high-income countries. However, the implications of these historical episodes for the current European situation are limited, for two main reasons. First, creditless recoveries are much less common in highincome countries, than in low-income countries which are financially undeveloped. European economies heavily depend on bank loans and research suggests that loan supply played a major role in the recent weak credit performance of Europe. There are reasons to believe that, despite various efforts, normal lending has not yet been restored. Limited loan supply could be disruptive for the European economic recovery and there has been only a minor substitution of bank loans with debt securities. Second, creditless recoveries were associated with significant real exchange rate depreciation, which has hardly occurred so far in most of Europe. This stylised fact suggests that it might be difficult to re-establish economic growth in the absence of sizeable real exchange rate depreciation, if credit growth does not return

Multipoint Variable Cycle Engine Design Using Gradient-based Optimization

Supersonic aircraft are challenging to optimally design due to the widely varying constraints and flight conditions they experience. Additionally, a large number of disciplinary subsystems must be considered due to highly complex design requirements. One subsystem that has a major effect on overall performance is the engine. In this work, we construct a supersonic mixed-flow variable cycle engine and perform multipoint gradient-based optimization using this model. We see that the operational variables allow the optimizer to tailor performance at each individual flight condition, leading to better overall performance. To simulate airframe integration constraints, we run successive optimizations with increasingly restrictive inlet areas and see decreases in engine performance. This work is part of a larger effort to incorporate engine design into aero-thermal-mission optimization of a supersonic aircraft

Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data

This paper offers new insights on the price setting behaviour of German retail firms using a novel dataset that consists of a large panel of monthly business surveys from 1991-2006. The firm-level data allows matching changes in firms' prices to several other firm-characteristics. Moreover, information on price expectations allow analyzing the determinants of price updating. Using univariate and bivariate ordered probit specifications, empirical menu cost models are estimated relating the probability of price adjustment and price updating, respectively, to both time- and state- dependent variables. First, results suggest an important role for state-dependence; changes in the macroeconomic and institutional environment as well as firm-specific factors are significantly related to the timing of price adjustment. These findings imply that price setting models should endogenize the timing of price adjustment in order to generate realistic predictions concerning the transmission of monetary policy. Second, an analysis of price expectations yields similar results providing evidence in favour of state-dependent sticky plan models. Third, intermediate input cost changes are among the most important determinants of price adjustment suggesting that pricing models should explicitly incorporate price setting at different production stages. However, the results show that adjustment to input cost changes takes time indicating "additional stickiness" at the last stage of processing

Intrathecal treatment of neoplastic meningitis due to breast cancer with a slow-release formulation of cytarabine

DepoCyte is a slow-release formulation of cytarabine designed for intrathecal administration. The goal of this multi-centre cohort study was to determine the safety and efficacy of DepoCyte for the intrathecal treatment of neoplastic meningitis due to breast cancer. DepoCyte 50 mg was injected once every 2 weeks for one month of induction therapy; responding patients were treated with an additional 3 months of consolidation therapy. All patients had metastatic breast cancer and a positive CSF cytology or neurologic findings characteristic of neoplastic meningitis. The median number of DepoCyte doses was 3, and 85% of patients completed the planned 1 month induction. Median follow up is currently 19 months. The primary endpoint was response, defined as conversion of the CSF cytology from positive to negative at all sites known to be positive, and the absence of neurologic progression at the time the cytologic conversion was documented. The response rate among the 43 evaluable patients was 28% (CI 95%: 14–41%); the intent-to-treat response rate was 21% (CI 95%: 12–34%). Median time to neurologic progression was 49 days (range 1–515(+)); median survival was 88 days (range 1–515(+)), and 1 year survival is projected to be 19%. The major adverse events were headache and arachnoiditis. When drug-related, these were largely of low grade, transient and reversible. Headache occurred on 11% of cycles; 90% were grade 1 or 2. Arachnoiditis occurred on 19% of cycles; 88% were grade 1 or 2. DepoCyte demonstrated activity in neoplastic meningitis due to breast cancer that is comparable to results reported with conventional intrathecal agents. However, this activity was achieved with one fourth as many intrathecal injections as typically required in conventional therapy. The every 2 week dose schedule is a major advantage for both patients and physicians. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Changes in catastrophic health expenditure in post-conflict Sierra Leone: an Oaxaca-blinder decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: At the end of the eleven-year conflict in Sierra Leone, a wide range of policies were implemented to address both demand- and supply-side constraints within the healthcare system, which had collapsed during the conflict. This study examines the extent to which households' exposure to financial risks associated with seeking healthcare evolved in post-conflict Sierra Leone. METHOD: This study uses the 2003 and 2011 cross-sections of the Sierra Leone Integrated Household Survey to examine changes in catastrophic health expenditure between 2003 and 2011. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach is used to quantify the extent to which changes in catastrophic health expenditure are attributable to changes in the distribution of determinants (distributional effect) and to changes in the impact of these determinants on the probability of incurring catastrophic health expenditure (coefficient effect). RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic health expenditure decreased significantly by 18% from approximately 50% in 2003 t0 32% in 2011. The decomposition analysis shows that this decrease represents net effects attributable to the distributional and coefficient effects of three determinants of catastrophic health expenditure - ill-health, the region in which households reside and the type of health facility used. A decrease in the incidence of ill-health and changes in the regional location of households contributed to a decrease in catastrophic health expenditure. The distributional effect of health facility types observed as an increase in the use of public health facilities, and a decrease in the use of services in facilities owned by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) also contributed to a decrease in the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure. However, the coefficient effect of public health facilities and NGO-owned facilities suggests that substantial exposure to financial risk remained for households utilizing both types of health facilities in 2011. CONCLUSION: The findings support the need to continue expanding current demand-side policies in Sierra Leone to reduce the financial risk of exposure to ill health

Human Mena Associates with Rac1 Small GTPase in Glioblastoma Cell Lines

Mammarian enabled (Mena), a member of the Enabled (Ena)/Vasodilator-stimulated phosphoprotein (VASP) family of proteins, has been implicated in cell motility through regulation of the actin cytoskeleton assembly, including lamellipodial protrusion. Rac1, a member of the Rho family GTPases, also plays a pivotal role in the formation of lamellipodia. Here we report that human Mena (hMena) colocalizes with Rac1 in lamellipodia, and using an unmixing assisted acceptor depletion fluorescence resonance energy transfer (u-adFRET) analysis that hMena associates with Rac1 in vivo in the glioblastoma cell line U251MG. Depletion of hMena by siRNA causes cells to be highly spread with the formation of lamellipodia. This cellular phenotype is canceled by introduction of a dominant negative form of Rac1. A Rac activity assay and FRET analysis showed that hMena knock-down cells increased the activation of Rac1 at the lamellipodia. These results suggest that hMena possesses properties which help to regulate the formation of lamellipodia through the modulation of the activity of Rac1