Indian summer monsoon prediction and simulation in CFSv2 coupled model

Using carefully designed coupled model experiments, we have demonstrated that the prediction skill of the all India summer monsoon rainfall (AISMR) in Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) model basically comes from the El-Niňo Southern Oscillation-Monsoon teleconnection. On the other hand, contrary to observations, the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics do not have a crucial role in controlling the prediction skill of the AISMR in CFSv2. We show that the inadequate representation of the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics in CFSv2 is responsible for this dichotomy. Hence, the improvement of the Indian Ocean coupled dynamics is essential for further improvement of the AISMR prediction skill in CFSv2

Attention and associative learning in humans: An integrative review

This article presents a comprehensive survey of research concerning interactions between associative learning and attention in humans. Four main findings are described. First, attention is biased toward stimuli that predict their consequences reliably (learned predictiveness). This finding is consistent with the approach taken by Mackintosh (1975) in his attentional model of associative learning in nonhuman animals. Second, the strength of this attentional bias is modulated by the value of the outcome (learned value). That is, predictors of high-value outcomes receive especially high levels of attention. Third, the related but opposing idea that uncertainty may result in increased attention to stimuli (Pearce & Hall, 1980), receives less support. This suggests that hybrid models of associative learning, incorporating the mechanisms of both the Mackintosh and Pearce-Hall theories, may not be required to explain data from human participants. Rather, a simpler model, in which attention to stimuli is determined by how strongly they are associated with significant outcomes, goes a long way to account for the data on human attentional learning. The last main finding, and an exciting area for future research and theorizing, is that learned predictiveness and learned value modulate both deliberate attentional focus, and more automatic attentional capture. The automatic influence of learning on attention does not appear to fit the traditional view of attention as being either goal-directed or stimulus-driven. Rather, it suggests a new kind of “derived” attention

Particle creation rate for dynamical black holes

We present the particle creation probability rate around a general black hole as an outcome of quantum fluctuations. Using the uncertainty principle for these fluctuation, we derive a new ultraviolet frequency cutoff for the radiation spectrum of a dynamical black hole. Using this frequency cutoff, we define the probability creation rate function for such black holes. We consider a dynamical Vaidya model, and calculate the probability creation rate for this case when its horizon is in a slowly evolving phase. Our results show that one can expect the usual Hawking radiation emission process in the case of a dynamical black hole when it has a slowly evolving horizon. Moreover, calculating the probability rate for a dynamical black hole gives a measure of when Hawking radiation can be killed off by an incoming flux of matter or radiation. Our result strictly suggests that we have to revise the Hawking radiation expectation for primordial black holes that have grown substantially since they were created in the early universe. We also infer that this frequency cut off can be a parameter that shows the primordial black hole growth at the emission moment.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure. The paper was rewritten in more clear presentation and one more appendix is adde

Deficient crisis-probing practices and taken-for-granted assumptions in health organisations

The practice of crisis-probing in proactive organisations involves meticulous and sustained investigation into operational processes and management structures for potential weaknesses and flaws before they become difficult to resolve. In health organisations, crisis probing is a necessary part of preparing to manage emerging health threats. This study examined the degree of pre-emptive probing in health organisations and the type of crisis training provided to determine whether or not they are prepared in this area. This evidence-based study draws on cross-sectional responses provided by executives from chiropractic, physiotherapy, and podiatry practices; dental and medical clinics; pharmacies; aged care facilities; and hospitals. The data show a marked lack of mandatory probing and a generalised failure to reward crisis reporting. Crisis prevention training is poor in all organisations except hospitals and aged care facilities where it occurs at an adequate frequency. However this training focuses primarily on natural disasters, fails to address most other crisis types, is mostly reactive and not designed to probe for and uncover key taken-for-granted assumptions. Crisis-probing in health organisations is inadequate, and improvements in this area may well translate into measurable improvements in preparedness and response outcomes

Conformal Quivers and Melting Molecules

Quiver quantum mechanics describes the low energy dynamics of a system of wrapped D-branes. It captures several aspects of single and multicentered BPS black hole geometries in four-dimensional $\mathcal{N} = 2$ supergravity such as the presence of bound states and an exponential growth of microstates. The Coulomb branch of an Abelian three node quiver is obtained by integrating out the massive strings connecting the D-particles. It allows for a scaling regime corresponding to a deep AdS$_2$ throat on the gravity side. In this scaling regime, the Coulomb branch is shown to be an $SL(2,\mathbb{R})$ invariant multi-particle superconformal quantum mechanics. Finally, we integrate out the strings at finite temperature---rather than in their ground state---and show how the Coulomb branch `melts' into the Higgs branch at high enough temperatures. For scaling solutions the melting occurs for arbitrarily small temperatures, whereas bound states can be metastable and thus long lived. Throughout the paper, we discuss how far the analogy between the quiver model and the gravity picture, particularly within the AdS$_2$ throat, can be taken.Comment: 49 pages, 16 figure

Calibrative approaches to protein solubility modeling of a mutant series using physicochemical descriptors

A set of physicochemical properties describing a protein of known structure is employed for a calibrative approach to protein solubility. Common hydrodynamic and electrophoretic properties routinely measured in the bio-analytical laboratory such as zeta potential, dipole moment, the second osmotic virial coefficient are first estimated in silico as a function a pH and solution ionic strength starting with the protein crystal structure. The utility of these descriptors in understanding the solubility of a series of ribonuclease Sa mutants is investigated. A simple two parameter model was trained using solubility data of the wild type protein measured at a restricted number of solution pHs. Solubility estimates of the mutants demonstrate that zeta potential and dipole moment may be used to rationalize solubility trends over a wide pH range. Additionally a calibrative model based on the protein’s second osmotic virial coefficient, B22 was developed. A modified DVLO type potential along with a simplified representation of the protein allowed for efficient computation of the second viral coefficient. The standard error of prediction for both models was on the order of 0.3 log S units. These results are very encouraging and demonstrate that these models may be trained with a small number of samples and employed extrapolatively for estimating mutant solubilities

A New Era in the Quest for Dark Matter

There is a growing sense of `crisis' in the dark matter community, due to the absence of evidence for the most popular candidates such as weakly interacting massive particles, axions, and sterile neutrinos, despite the enormous effort that has gone into searching for these particles. Here, we discuss what we have learned about the nature of dark matter from past experiments, and the implications for planned dark matter searches in the next decade. We argue that diversifying the experimental effort, incorporating astronomical surveys and gravitational wave observations, is our best hope to make progress on the dark matter problem.Comment: Published in Nature, online on 04 Oct 2018. 13 pages, 1 figur

Telbivudine versus lamivudine in patients with chronic hepatitis B

BACKGROUND: Reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) replication to minimal levels is emerging as a key therapeutic goal for chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: In this double-blind, phase 3 trial, 1370 patients with chronic hepatitis B were randomly assigned to receive 600 mg of telbivudine or 100 mg of lamivudine once daily. The primary efficacy end point was noninferiority of telbivudine to lamivudine for therapeutic response (i.e., a reduction in serum HBV DNA levels to fewer than 5 log 10 copies per milliliter, along with loss of hepatitis B e antigen [HBeAg] or normalization of alanine aminotransferase levels). Secondary efficacy measures included histologic response, changes in serum HBV DNA levels, and HBeAg responses. RESULTS: At week 52, a significantly higher proportion of HBeAg-positive patients receiving telbivudine than of those receiving lamivudine had a therapeutic response (75.3% vs. 67.0%, P = 0.005) or a histologic response (64.7% vs. 56.3%, P = 0.01); telbivudine also was not inferior to lamivudine for these end points in HBeAg-negative patients. In HBeAg-positive and HBeAg-negative patients, telbivudine was superior to lamivudine with respect to the mean reduction in the number of copies of HBV DNA from baseline, the proportion of patients with a reduction in HBV DNA to levels undetectable by polymerase-chain-reaction assay, and development of resistance to the drug. Elevated creatine kinase levels were more common in patients who received telbivudine, whereas elevated alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase levels were more common in those who received lamivudine. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with HBeAg-positive chronic hepatitis B, the rates of therapeutic and histologic response at 1 year were significantly higher in patients treated with telbivudine than in patients treated with lamivudine. In both the HBeAg-negative and the HBeAg-positive groups, telbivudine demonstrated greater HBV DNA suppression with less resistance than did lamivudine. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00057265.) Copyright © 2007 Massachusetts Medical Society.published_or_final_versio

Performance of Three LED-Based Fluorescence Microscopy Systems for Detection of Tuberculosis in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Direct smear microscopy using Ziehl-Neelsen (ZN) staining is the mainstay of tuberculosis (TB) diagnosis in most high burden countries, but is limited by low sensitivity in routine practice, particularly in high human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence settings. METHODS: We compared the performance of three commercial light emitting diode (LED)-based microscopy systems (Primostar™ iLED, Lumin™ and AFTER®) for fluorescent detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis with ZN microscopy on slides prepared from sputum of TB suspects. Examination time for LED-based fluorescent microscopy (LED FM) and ZN slides was also compared, and a qualitative user appraisal of the LED FM systems was carried out. RESULTS: LED FM was between 5.6 and 9.4% more sensitive than ZN microscopy, although the difference was not statistically significant. There was no significant difference in the sensitivity or specificity of the three LED FM systems, although the specificity of Fraen AFTER was somewhat lower than the other LED FM methods. Examination time for LED FM was 2 and 4 times less than for ZN microscopy. LED FM was highly acceptable to Ugandan technologists, although differences in operational performance of the three systems were reported. CONCLUSIONS: LED FM compares favourably with ZN microscopy, with equivalent specificity and a modest increase in sensitivity. Screening of slides was substantially quicker using LED FM than ZN, and LED FM was rated highly by laboratory technologists. Available commercial systems have different operational characteristics which should be considered prior to programmatic implementation

Autoimmune hepatitis in India: profile of an uncommon disease

BACKGROUND: Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) has been reported to show considerable geographical variation in frequency and clinical manifestations. It is considered a rare cause of liver disease in India. The present study was undertaken to determine the incidence, clinical, biochemical and histological profile of AIH in this part of the world. METHODS: Patients presenting with acute or chronic liver disease between January 1999 and June 2002 were evaluated prospectively. AIH was diagnosed using the international autoimmune hepatitis group criteria. Workup included clinical, biochemical, USG, viral markers, UGI endoscopy, AI markers (ANA, SMA, Anti-LKM, AMA, RF, p-ANCA) using indirect immunofluorescence and liver biopsy if possible. RESULTS: Forty-one of 2401 (1.70%) patients were diagnosed to have autoimmune liver disease. Out of these, 38 had autoimmune hepatitis and the rest 3 had primary biliary cirrhosis. The mean age of the patients of autoimmune hepatitis was 36.2 (15.9) years, 34 (89.4%) were females, and the duration of symptoms was 20.3 (20.5) months. Nineteen (50%) of them presented with chronic hepatitis, 13 (34.2%) as cirrhosis, 5 (13.1%) with acute hepatitis and 1 (2.6%) with cholestatic hepatitis. The presentations were jaundice in 21 (55.2%), pedal edema and hepatomegaly in 17 (44.7%), splenomegaly in 13 (34.2%), encephalopathy, abdominal pain in 9 (23.6%) and fever in 8 (21%). Twelve had esophageal varices and 3 had bled. Biochemical parameters were ALT 187 (360) U/L, AST 157 (193) U/L, ALP 246 (254) U/L, globulin 4.1 (1.6) g/dL, albumin 2.8 (0.9) g/dL, bilirubin 5.2 (7.4) mg/dL, prothrombin time 17 (7) sec and ESR 47 (17) sec. The autoimmune markers were SMA (24), ANA (15), both SMA and ANA (4), AMA (1), rheumatoid factor (2), pANCA (1), and Anti-LKM in none. Thirty (79%) patients had definite AIH and eight (21%) had probable AI hepatitis. Associated autoimmune diseases was seen in 15/38 (39.4%), diabetes 4, hypothyroidism 3, vitiligo 2, thrombocytopenia 2, rheumatoid arthritis 2, Sjogren's syndrome 1 and autoimmune polyglandular syndrome III in 1. Viral markers were positive in two patients, one presenting as acute hepatitis and HEV-IgM positive and another anti-HCV positive. CONCLUSION: In India, autoimmune hepatitis is uncommon and usually presents with chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis, acute hepatitis being less common. Age at presentation was earlier but clinical parameters and associated autoimmune diseases were similar to that reported from the west. Primary biliary cirrhosis is rare. Type II AIH was not observed