Ecological Associations between Obesity Prevalence and Neighborhood Determinants Using Spatial Machine Learning in Chicago, Illinois, USA

Some studies have established relationships between neighborhood conditions and health. However, they neither evaluate the relative importance of neighborhood components in increasing obesity nor, more crucially, how these neighborhood factors vary geographically. We use the geographical random forest to analyze each factor’s spatial variation and contribution to explaining tract-level obesity prevalence in Chicago, Illinois, United States. According to our findings, the geographical random forest outperforms the typically used nonspatial random forest model in terms of the out-of-bag prediction accuracy. In the Chicago tracts, poverty is the most important factor, whereas biking is the least important. Crime is the most critical factor in explaining obesity prevalence in Chicago’s south suburbs while poverty appears to be the most important predictor in the city’s south. For policy planning and evidence-based decision-making, our results suggest that social and ecological patterns of neighborhood characteristics are associated with obesity prevalence. Consequently, interventions should be devised and implemented based on local circumstances rather than generic notions of prevention strategies and healthcare barriers that apply to Chicago

Spatial Optimization Methods for Malaria Risk Mapping in Sub-Saharan African Cities Using Demographic and Health Surveys

Vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, are affected by the rapid urban growth and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this context, intra-urban malaria risk maps act as a key decision-making tool for targeting malaria control interventions, especially in resource-limited settings. The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) provide a consistent malaria data source for mapping malaria risk at the national scale, but their use is limited at the intra-urban scale because survey cluster coordinates are randomly displaced for ethical reasons. In this research, we focus on predicting intra-urban malaria risk in SSA cities-Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Kampala and Ouagadougou-and investigate the use of spatial optimization methods to overcome the effect of DHS spatial displacement. We modeled malaria risk using a random forest regressor and remotely sensed covariates depicting the urban climate, the land cover and the land use, and we tested several spatial optimization approaches. The use of spatial optimization mitigated the effects of DHS spatial displacement on predictive performance. However, this comes at a higher computational cost, and the percentage of variance explained in our models remained low (around 30%-40%), which suggests that these methods cannot entirely overcome the limited quality of epidemiological data. Building on our results, we highlight potential adaptations to the DHS sampling strategy that would make them more reliable for predicting malaria risk at the intra-urban scale

Can we use local climate zones for predicting malaria prevalence across sub-Saharan African cities?

Malaria burden is increasing in sub-Saharan cities because of rapid and uncontrolled urbanization. Yet very few studies have studied the interactions between urban environments and malaria. Additionally, no standardized urban land-use/land-cover has been defined for urban malaria studies. Here, we demonstrate the potential of local climate zones (LCZs) for modeling malaria prevalence rate (PfPR2-10) and studying malaria prevalence in urban settings across nine sub-Saharan African cities. Using a random forest classification algorithm over a set of 365 malaria surveys we: (i) identify a suitable set of covariates derived from open-source earth observations; and (ii) depict the best buffer size at which to aggregate them for modeling PfPR2-10. Our results demonstrate that geographical models can learn from LCZ over a set of cities and be transferred over a city of choice that has few or no malaria surveys. In particular, we find that urban areas systematically have lower PfPR2-10 (5%-30%) than rural areas (15%-40%). The PfPR2-10 urban-to-rural gradient is dependent on the climatic environment in which the city is located. Further, LCZs show that more open urban environments located close to wetlands have higher PfPR2-10. Informal settlements - represented by the LCZ 7 (lightweight lowrise) - have higher malaria prevalence than other densely built-up residential areas with a mean prevalence of 11.11%. Overall, we suggest the applicability of LCZs for more exploratory modeling in urban malaria studies. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

AI perceives like a local:predicting citizen deprivation perception using satellite imagery

Deprived urban areas, commonly referred to as ‘slums,’ are the consequence of unprecedented urbanisation. Previous studies have highlighted the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Earth Observation (EO) in capturing physical aspects of urban deprivation. However, little research has explored AI’s ability to predict how locals perceive deprivation. This research aims to develop a method to predict citizens’ perception of deprivation using satellite imagery, citizen science, and AI. A deprivation perception score was computed from slum-citizens’ votes. Then, AI was used to model this score, and results indicate that it can effectively predict perception, with deep learning outperforming conventional machine learning. By leveraging AI and EO, policymakers can comprehend the underlying patterns of urban deprivation, enabling targeted interventions based on citizens’ needs. As over a quarter of the global urban population resides in slums, this tool can help prioritise citizens’ requirements, providing evidence for implementing urban upgrading policies aligned with SDG-11.</p

The Multi-Satellite Environmental and Socioeconomic Predictors of Vector-Borne Diseases in African Cities:Malaria as an Example

Remote sensing has been used for decades to produce vector-borne disease risk maps aiming at better targeting control interventions. However, the coarse and climatic-driven nature of these maps largely hampered their use in the fight against malaria in highly heterogeneous African cities. Remote sensing now offers a large panel of data with the potential to greatly improve and refine malaria risk maps at the intra-urban scale. This research aims at testing the ability of different geospatial datasets exclusively derived from satellite sensors to predict malaria risk in two sub-Saharan African cities: Kampala (Uganda) and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). Using random forest models, we predicted intra-urban malaria risk based on environmental and socioeconomic predictors using climatic, land cover and land use variables among others. The combination of these factors derived from different remote sensors showed the highest predictive power, particularly models including climatic, land cover and land use predictors. However, the predictive power remained quite low, which is suspected to be due to urban malaria complexity and malaria data limitations. While huge improvements have been made over the last decades in terms of remote sensing data acquisition and processing, the quantity and quality of epidemiological data are not yet sufficient to take full advantage of these improvements

Making Urban Slum Population Visible: Citizens and Satellites to Reinforce Slum Censuses

In response to the “Leave No One Behind” principle (the central promise of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development), reliable estimate of the total number of citizens living in slums is urgently needed but not available for some of the most vulnerable communities. Not having a reliable estimate of the number of poor urban dwellers limits evidence-based decision-making for proper resource allocation in the fight against urban inequalities. From a geographical perspective, urban population distribution maps in many low- and middle-income cities are most often derived from outdated or unreliable census data disaggregated by coarse administrative units. Moreover, slum populations are presented as aggregated within bigger administrative areas, leading to a large diffuse in the estimates. Existing global and open population databases provide homogeneously disaggregated information (i.e. in a spatial grid), but they mostly rely on census data to generate their estimates, so they do not provide additional information on the slum population. While a few studies have focused on bottom-up geospatial models for slum population mapping using survey data, geospatial covariates, and earth observation imagery, there is still a significant gap in methodological approaches for producing precise estimates within slums. To address this issue, we designed a pilot experiment to explore new avenues. We conducted this study in the slums of Nairobi, where we collected in situ data together with slum dwellers using a novel data collection protocol. Our results show that the combination of satellite imagery with in situ data collected by citizen science paves the way for generalisable, gridded estimates of slum populations. Furthermore, we find that the urban physiognomy of slums and population distribution patterns are related, which allows for highlighting the diversity of such patterns using earth observation within and between slums of the same city

Modelling and mapping the intra-urban spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate using very-high-resolution satellite derived indicators

BACKGROUND: The rapid and often uncontrolled rural-urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa is transforming urban landscapes expected to provide shelter for more than 50% of Africa's population by 2030. Consequently, the burden of malaria is increasingly affecting the urban population, while socio-economic inequalities within the urban settings are intensified. Few studies, relying mostly on moderate to high resolution datasets and standard predictive variables such as building and vegetation density, have tackled the topic of modeling intra-urban malaria at the city extent. In this research, we investigate the contribution of very-high-resolution satellite-derived land-use, land-cover and population information for modeling the spatial distribution of urban malaria prevalence across large spatial extents. As case studies, we apply our methods to two Sub-Saharan African cities, Kampala and Dar es Salaam. METHODS: Openly accessible land-cover, land-use, population and OpenStreetMap data were employed to spatially model Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate standardized to the age group 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) in the two cities through the use of a Random Forest (RF) regressor. The RF models integrated physical and socio-economic information to predict PfPR2-10 across the urban landscape. Intra-urban population distribution maps were used to adjust the estimates according to the underlying population. RESULTS: The results suggest that the spatial distribution of PfPR2-10 in both cities is diverse and highly variable across the urban fabric. Dense informal settlements exhibit a positive relationship with PfPR2-10 and hotspots of malaria prevalence were found near suitable vector breeding sites such as wetlands, marshes and riparian vegetation. In both cities, there is a clear separation of higher risk in informal settlements and lower risk in the more affluent neighborhoods. Additionally, areas associated with urban agriculture exhibit higher malaria prevalence values. CONCLUSIONS: The outcome of this research highlights that populations living in informal settlements show higher malaria prevalence compared to those in planned residential neighborhoods. This is due to (i) increased human exposure to vectors, (ii) increased vector density and (iii) a reduced capacity to cope with malaria burden. Since informal settlements are rapidly expanding every year and often house large parts of the urban population, this emphasizes the need for systematic and consistent malaria surveys in such areas. Finally, this study demonstrates the importance of remote sensing as an epidemiological tool for mapping urban malaria variations at large spatial extents, and for promoting evidence-based policy making and control efforts.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe