Accounting for variability when resurrecting dormant propagules substantiates their use in eco-evolutionary studies

There has been a steady rise in the use of dormant propagules to study biotic responses to environmental change over time. This is particularly important for organisms that strongly mediate ecosystem processes, as changes in their traits over time can provide a unique snapshot into the structure and function of ecosystems from decades to millennia in the past. Understanding sources of bias and variation is a challenge in the field of resurrection ecology, including those that arise because often-used measurements like seed germination success are imperfect indicators of propagule viability. Using a Bayesian statistical framework, we evaluated sources of variability and tested for zero-inflation and overdispersion in data from 13 germination trials of soil-stored seeds of Schoenoplectus americanus, an ecosystem engineer in coastal salt marshes in the Chesapeake Bay. We hypothesized that these two model structures align with an ecological understanding of dormancy and revival: zero-inflation could arise due to failed germinations resulting from inviability or failed attempts to break dormancy, and overdispersion could arise by failing to measure important seed traits. A model that accounted for overdispersion, but not zero-inflation, was the best fit to our data. Tetrazolium viability tests corroborated this result: most seeds that failed to germinate did so because they were inviable, not because experimental methods failed to break their dormancy. Seed viability declined exponentially with seed age and was mediated by seed provenance and experimental conditions. Our results provide a framework for accounting for and explaining variability when estimating propagule viability from soil-stored natural archives which is a key aspect of using dormant propagules in eco-evolutionary studies

The Third Gravitational Lensing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) Challenge Handbook

The GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing 3 (GREAT3) challenge is the third in a series of image analysis challenges, with a goal of testing and facilitating the development of methods for analyzing astronomical images that will be used to measure weak gravitational lensing. This measurement requires extremely precise estimation of very small galaxy shape distortions, in the presence of far larger intrinsic galaxy shapes and distortions due to the blurring kernel caused by the atmosphere, telescope optics, and instrumental effects. The GREAT3 challenge is posed to the astronomy, machine learning, and statistics communities, and includes tests of three specific effects that are of immediate relevance to upcoming weak lensing surveys, two of which have never been tested in a community challenge before. These effects include realistically complex galaxy models based on high-resolution imaging from space; spatially varying, physically-motivated blurring kernel; and combination of multiple different exposures. To facilitate entry by people new to the field, and for use as a diagnostic tool, the simulation software for the challenge is publicly available, though the exact parameters used for the challenge are blinded. Sample scripts to analyze the challenge data using existing methods will also be provided. See http://great3challenge.info and http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard/ for more information.Comment: 30 pages, 13 figures, submitted for publication, with minor edits (v2) to address comments from the anonymous referee. Simulated data are available for download and participants can find more information at http://great3.projects.phys.ucl.ac.uk/leaderboard

GREAT3 results I: systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically-varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially-varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by $\sim 1$ per cent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the S\'{e}rsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods' results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticity.Comment: 32 pages + 15 pages of technical appendices; 28 figures; submitted to MNRAS; latest version has minor updates in presentation of 4 figures, no changes in content or conclusion

Variation in Ancillary Testing among Pediatric Asthma Patients Seen in Emergency Departments

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72605/1/j.aem.2007.01.016.pd

Understanding Dwarf Galaxies in order to Understand Dark Matter

Much progress has been made in recent years by the galaxy simulation community in making realistic galaxies, mostly by more accurately capturing the effects of baryons on the structural evolution of dark matter halos at high resolutions. This progress has altered theoretical expectations for galaxy evolution within a Cold Dark Matter (CDM) model, reconciling many earlier discrepancies between theory and observations. Despite this reconciliation, CDM may not be an accurate model for our Universe. Much more work must be done to understand the predictions for galaxy formation within alternative dark matter models.Comment: Refereed contribution to the Proceedings of the Simons Symposium on Illuminating Dark Matter, to be published by Springe

Evaluation of a multiple ecological level child obesity prevention program: Switch® what you Do, View, and Chew

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Schools are the most frequent target for intervention programs aimed at preventing child obesity; however, the overall effectiveness of these programs has been limited. It has therefore been recommended that interventions target multiple ecological levels (community, family, school and individual) to have greater success in changing risk behaviors for obesity. This study examined the immediate and short-term, sustained effects of the Switch program, which targeted three behaviors (decreasing children's screen time, increasing fruit and vegetable consumption, and increasing physical activity) at three ecological levels (the family, school, and community).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Participants were 1,323 children and their parents from 10 schools in two states. Schools were matched and randomly assigned to treatment and control. Measures of the key behaviors and body mass index were collected at baseline, immediately post-intervention, and 6 months post-intervention.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The effect sizes of the differences between treatment and control groups ranged between small (Cohen's <it>d </it>= 0.15 for body mass index at 6 months post-intervention) to large (1.38; parent report of screen time at 6 months post-intervention), controlling for baseline levels. There was a significant difference in parent-reported screen time at post-intervention in the experimental group, and this effect was maintained at 6 months post-intervention (a difference of about 2 hours/week). The experimental group also showed a significant increase in parent-reported fruit and vegetable consumption while child-reported fruit and vegetable consumption was marginally significant. At the 6-month follow-up, parent-reported screen time was significantly lower, and parent and child-reported fruit and vegetable consumption was significantly increased. There were no significant effects on pedometer measures of physical activity or body mass index in the experimental group. The intervention effects were moderated by child sex (for fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and weight status), family involvement (for fruit and vegetable consumption), and child body mass index (for screen time). The perception of change among the experimental group was generally positive with 23% to 62% indicating positive changes in behaviors.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results indicate that the Switch program yielded small-to-modest treatment effects for promoting children's fruit and vegetable consumption and minimizing screen time. The Switch program offers promise for use in youth obesity prevention.</p

Ethnic and Racial Differences in Self-reported Symptoms, Health Status, Activity Level, and Missed Work at 3 and 6 Months Following SARS-CoV-2 Infection

INTRODUCTION: Data on ethnic and racial differences in symptoms and health-related impacts following SARS-CoV-2 infection are limited. We aimed to estimate the ethnic and racial differences in symptoms and health-related impacts 3 and 6 months after the first SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS: Participants included adults with SARS-CoV-2 infection enrolled in a prospective multicenter US study between 12/11/2020 and 7/4/2022 as the primary cohort of interest, as well as a SARS-CoV-2-negative cohort to account for non-SARS-CoV-2-infection impacts, who completed enrollment and 3-month surveys ( RESULTS: Following SARS-CoV-2 infection, the majority of symptoms were similar over time between ethnic and racial groups. At 3 months, Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanic participants to report fair/poor health (OR: 1.94; 95%CI: 1.36-2.78) and reduced activity (somewhat less, OR: 1.47; 95%CI: 1.06-2.02; much less, OR: 2.23; 95%CI: 1.38-3.61). At 6 months, differences by ethnicity were not present. At 3 months, Other/Multiple race participants were more likely than white participants to report fair/poor health (OR: 1.90; 95% CI: 1.25-2.88), reduced activity (somewhat less, OR: 1.72; 95%CI: 1.21-2.46; much less, OR: 2.08; 95%CI: 1.18-3.65). At 6 months, Asian participants were more likely than white participants to report fair/poor health (OR: 1.88; 95%CI: 1.13-3.12); Black participants reported more missed work (OR, 2.83; 95%CI: 1.60-5.00); and Other/Multiple race participants reported more fair/poor health (OR: 1.83; 95%CI: 1.10-3.05), reduced activity (somewhat less, OR: 1.60; 95%CI: 1.02-2.51; much less, OR: 2.49; 95%CI: 1.40-4.44), and more missed work (OR: 2.25; 95%CI: 1.27-3.98). DISCUSSION: Awareness of ethnic and racial differences in outcomes following SARS-CoV-2 infection may inform clinical and public health efforts to advance health equity in long-term outcomes

Fetal programming of neuropsychiatric disorders by maternal pregnancy depression: a systematic mini review

BACKGROUND: Maternal depression complicates a large proportion of pregnancies. Current evidence shows numerous harmful effects on the offspring. Reviews, which include depression, concluded that stress has harmful effects on the offspring's outcomes neuro-cognitive development, temperament traits, and mental disorders. OBJECTIVE: This mini review of recent studies, sought to narrow the scope of exposure and identify studies specifically assessing prenatal depression and offspring neuropsychiatric outcomes. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: The review included longitudinal, cohort, cross-sectional, clinical, quasi-experimental, epidemiological, or intervention study designs published in English from 2014 to 2018. PARTICIPANTS: Study populations included mother-child dyads, mother-father-child triads, mother-alternative caregiver-child triads, and family studies utilizing sibling comparisons. METHODS: We searched PubMED and Web of Science. Study inclusion and data extraction were based on standardized templates. The quality of evidence was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). RESULTS: Thirteen studies examining neuropsychiatric outcomes were included. We judged the evidence to be moderate to high quality. CONCLUSIONS: Our review supports that maternal prenatal depression is associated with neuropsychiatric adversities in children.Peer reviewe

GREAT3 results - I. Systematic errors in shear estimation and the impact of real galaxy morphology

We present first results from the third GRavitational lEnsing Accuracy Testing (GREAT3) challenge, the third in a sequence of challenges for testing methods of inferring weak gravitational lensing shear distortions from simulated galaxy images. GREAT3 was divided into experiments to test three specific questions, and included simulated space- and ground-based data with constant or cosmologically varying shear fields. The simplest (control) experiment included parametric galaxies with a realistic distribution of signal-to-noise, size, and ellipticity, and a complex point spread function (PSF). The other experiments tested the additional impact of realistic galaxy morphology, multiple exposure imaging, and the uncertainty about a spatially varying PSF; the last two questions will be explored in Paper II. The 24 participating teams competed to estimate lensing shears to within systematic error tolerances for upcoming Stage-IV dark energy surveys, making 1525 submissions overall. GREAT3 saw considerable variety and innovation in the types of methods applied. Several teams now meet or exceed the targets in many of the tests conducted (to within the statistical errors). We conclude that the presence of realistic galaxy morphology in simulations changes shear calibration biases by ∼1percent for a wide range of methods. Other effects such as truncation biases due to finite galaxy postage stamps, and the impact of galaxy type as measured by the Sérsic index, are quantified for the first time. Our results generalize previous studies regarding sensitivities to galaxy size and signal-to-noise, and to PSF properties such as seeing and defocus. Almost all methods' results support the simple model in which additive shear biases depend linearly on PSF ellipticit

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome After SARS-CoV-2 Infection

IMPORTANCE: Chronic symptoms reported following an infection with SARS-CoV-2, such as cognitive problems, overlap with symptoms included in the definition of myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of ME/CFS-like illness subsequent to acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, changes in ME/CFS symptoms through 12 months of follow-up, and the association of ME/CFS symptoms with SARS-CoV-2 test results at the acute infection-like index illness. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This prospective, multisite, longitudinal cohort study (Innovative Support for Patients with SARS-CoV-2 Infections Registry [INSPIRE]) enrolled participants from December 11, 2020, to August 29, 2022. Participants were adults aged 18 to 64 years with acute symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection who received a US Food and Drug Administration-approved SARS-CoV-2 test at the time of illness and did not die or withdraw from the study by 3 months. Follow-up surveys were collected through February 28, 2023. EXPOSURE: COVID-19 status (positive vs negative) at enrollment. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES: The main outcome was the weighted proportion of participants with ME/CFS-like illness based on the 2015 Institute of Medicine clinical case definition using self-reported symptoms. RESULTS: A total of 4378 participants were included in the study. Most were female (3226 [68.1%]). Mean (SD) age was 37.8 (11.8) years. The survey completion rates ranged from 38.7% (3613 of 4738 participants) to 76.3% (1835 of 4738) and decreased over time. The weighted proportion of participants identified with ME/CFS-like illness did not change significantly at 3 through 12 months of follow-up and was similar in the COVID-19-positive (range, 2.8%-3.7%) and COVID-19-negative (range, 3.1%-4.5%) groups. Adjusted analyses revealed no significant difference in the odds of ME/CFS-like illness at any time point between COVID-19-positive and COVID-19-negative individuals (marginal odds ratio range, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.42-1.67] to 1.18 [95% CI, 0.55-2.51]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this prospective cohort study, there was no evidence that the proportion of participants with ME/CFS-like illness differed between those infected with SARS-CoV-2 vs those without SARS-CoV-2 infection up to 12 months after infection. A 3% to 4% prevalence of ME/CFS-like illness after an acute infection-like index illness would impose a high societal burden given the millions of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2