Bayesian regression discontinuity designs: Incorporating clinical knowledge in the causal analysis of primary care data

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a quasi-experimental design that estimates the causal effects of a treatment by exploiting naturally occurring treatment rules. It can be applied in any context where a particular treatment or intervention is administered according to a pre-specified rule linked to a continuous variable. Such thresholds are common in primary care drug prescription where the RD design can be used to estimate the causal effect of medication in the general population. Such results can then be contrasted to those obtained from randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and inform prescription policy and guidelines based on a more realistic and less expensive context. In this paper we focus on statins, a class of cholesterol-lowering drugs, however, the methodology can be applied to many other drugs provided these are prescribed in accordance to pre-determined guidelines. NHS guidelines state that statins should be prescribed to patients with 10 year cardiovascular disease risk scores in excess of 20%. If we consider patients whose scores are close to this threshold we find that there is an element of random variation in both the risk score itself and its measurement. We can thus consider the threshold a randomising device assigning the prescription to units just above the threshold and withholds it from those just below. Thus we are effectively replicating the conditions of an RCT in the area around the threshold, removing or at least mitigating confounding. We frame the RD design in the language of conditional independence which clarifies the assumptions necessary to apply it to data, and which makes the links with instrumental variables clear. We also have context specific knowledge about the expected sizes of the effects of statin prescription and are thus able to incorporate this into Bayesian models by formulating informative priors on our causal parameters.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

Mapping and assessing ecosystem services: Methods and practical applications

The EU Biodiversity Strategy to 2020 called on EU member states to map and assess the state of ecosystems and their services in their national territory (European Commission 2011). This knowledge-base should be designed to be a primary resource for developing Europe’s green infrastructure, to identify areas for ecosystem restoration and to set a baseline against which the goal of ‘no net loss” of biodiversity and ecosystem services can be evaluated. Thus, appropriate methods, information and data are needed to know where and how, for example, food, water, clean air, other materials and recreation are provided, and how climate, nutrients, natural disasters, pests and diseases are regulated. Information and data on actual ecosystem services (ES) demands, beneficiaries and potential mismatches with their supply location as well as ES quality and quantity are essential to make informed decisions for appropriate management of natural resources. ES are a very complex topic and their integrative assessment and implementation asks for truly transdisciplinary approachesThe ESMERALDA project received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme: grant agreement No 64200

Integration of ecosystem services into a conceptual spatial planning framework based on a landscape ecology perspective

Context The study of ecosystem services has extended its influence into spatial planning and landscape ecology, the integration of which can offer an opportunity to enhance the saliency, credibility, and legitimacy of landscape ecology in spatial planning issues. Objectives This paper presents a conceptual framework suitable for spatial planning in human dominated environments supported by landscape ecological thinking. It seeks to facilitate the integration of ecosystem services into current practice, including landscape metrics as suitable indicators. Methods A literature review supported the revision of existing open questions pertaining to ecosystem services as well as their integration into landscape ecology and spatial planning. A posterior reflection of the current state-of-the-art was then used as a basis for developing the spatial planning conceptual framework. Results and conclusion The framework is articulated around four phases (characterisation, assessment, design, and monitoring) and three concepts (character, service, and value). It advocates integration of public participation, consideration of “landscape services”, the inclusion of ecosystem disservices, and the use of landscape metrics for qualitative assessment of services. As a result, the framework looks to enhance spatial planning practice by providing: (i) a better consideration of landscape configuration in the supply of services (ii) the integration of anthropogenic services with ecosystem services; (iii) the consideration of costs derived from ecosystems (e.g. disservices); and (iv) an aid to the understanding of ecosystem services terminology for spatial planning professionals and decision makers

Assessing land take by urban development and its impact on carbon storage: Findings from two case studies in Italy

Land take due to urbanization triggers a series of negative environmental impactswith direct effects on quality of life for people living in cities. Changes in ecosystem services are associated with land take, among which is the immediate C loss due to land use conversion. Land use change monitoring represents the first step in quantifying land take and its drivers and impacts. To this end, we propose an innovative methodology for monitoring land take and its effects on ecosystem services (in particular, C loss) undermulti-scale contexts. The devised approach was tested in two areas with similar sizes, but different land take levels during the time-span 1990–2008 in Central Italy (the Province of Rome and theMolise Region). The estimates of total coverage of built up areaswere calculated using point sampling. The area of the urban patches including each sampling point classified as built up areas in the year 1990 and/or in the year 2008 is used to estimate total abundance and average area of built up areas. Biophysical and economic values for carbon loss associated with land take were calculated using InVEST. Although land take was 7–8 times higher in the Province of Rome (from 15.1% in 1990 to 20.4% in 2008) than in Molise region, our findings show that its relative impact on C storage is higher in the latter,where the urban growth consistently affects not only croplands but also semi-natural land uses such as grasslands and other wooded lands. The total C loss due to land take has been estimated in 1.6 million Mg C, corresponding to almost 355 million €. Finally, the paper discusses the main characteristics of urban growth and their ecological impact leading to risks and challenges for future urban planning and land use policies

Planning for Ecosystem Services in Cities

This open access book presents current knowledge about ecosystem services (ES) in urban planning, and discusses various urban ES topics such as spatial distribution of urban ecosystems, population distribution, and physical infrastructure properties. The book addresses all these issues by: i) investigating to what extent ecosystem services are currently included in urban plans, and discussing what is still needed to improve planning practice; ii) illustrating how to develop ecosystem services indicators and information that can be used by urban planners to enhance plan design; iii) demonstrating the application of ES assessments to support urban planning processes through case studies; and iv) reflecting on criteria for addressing equity in urban planning through ecosystem service assessments, by exploring issues associated with the supply of, the access to and demand for ES by citizens. Through fully worked out case studies, from policy questions, to baseline analysis and indicators, and from option comparison to proposed solutions, the book offers readers detailed and accessible coverage of outstanding issues and proposed solutions to better integrate ES in city planning. The overall purpose of the book is to provide a compact reference that can be used by researchers as a key resource offering an updated perspective and overview on the field, as well as by practitioners and planners/decision makers as a source of inspiration for their activity. Additionally, the book will be a suitable resource for both undergraduate and post-graduate courses in planning and geography

Can ethnic disparities in sentencing be taken as evidence of judicial discrimination?

Large research efforts have been directed at the exploration of ethnic disparities in the criminal justice system, documenting harsher treatment of minority ethnic defendants, across offence types, criminal justice decisions, and jurisdictions. However, most studies on the topic have relied on observational data, which can only approximate ‘like with like’ comparisons. We use causal diagrams to lay out explicitly the different ways estimates of ethnic disparities in sentencing derived from observational data could be biased. Beyond the commonly acknowledged problem of unobserved case characteristics, we also discuss other less well-known, yet likely more consequential problems: measurement error in the form of racially-determined case characteristics or as a result of disparities within the ‘Whites’ reference group, and selection bias from non-response and missing offenders’ ethnicity data. We apply such causal framework to review findings from two recent studies showing ethnic disparities in custodial sentences imposed at the Crown Court (England and Wales). We also use simulations to recreate the most comprehensive of those studies, and demonstrate how the reported ethnic disparities appear robust to a problem of unobserved case characteristics. We conclude that ethnic disparities observed in the Crown Court are likely reflecting evidence of direct discrimination in sentencing