The Communicability of Graphical Alternatives to Tabular Displays of Statistical Simulation Studies

Simulation studies are often used to assess the frequency properties and optimality of statistical methods. They are typically reported in tables, which may contain hundreds of figures to be contrasted over multiple dimensions. To assess the degree to which these tables are fit for purpose, we performed a randomised cross-over experiment in which statisticians were asked to extract information from (i) such a table sourced from the literature and (ii) a graphical adaptation designed by the authors, and were timed and assessed for accuracy. We developed hierarchical models accounting for differences between individuals of different experience levels (under- and post-graduate), within experience levels, and between different table-graph pairs. In our experiment, information could be extracted quicker and, for less experienced participants, more accurately from graphical presentations than tabular displays. We also performed a literature review to assess the prevalence of hard-to-interpret design features in tables of simulation studies in three popular statistics journals, finding that many are presented innumerately. We recommend simulation studies be presented in graphical form

Bayesian optimization for materials design

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as possible. We focus on the case when materials designs are parameterized by a low-dimensional vector. Bayesian optimization is built on a statistical technique called Gaussian process regression, which allows predicting the performance of a new design based on previously tested designs. After providing a detailed introduction to Gaussian process regression, we introduce two Bayesian optimization methods: expected improvement, for design problems with noise-free evaluations; and the knowledge-gradient method, which generalizes expected improvement and may be used in design problems with noisy evaluations. Both methods are derived using a value-of-information analysis, and enjoy one-step Bayes-optimality

The origin of human chromosome 2 analyzed by comparative chromosome mapping with a DNA microlibrary

Fluorescencein situ hybridization (FISH) of microlibraries established from distinct chromosome subregions can test the evolutionary conservation of chromosome bands as well as chromosomal rearrangements that occurred during primate evolution and will help to clarify phylogenetic relationships. We used a DNA library established by microdissection and microcloning from the entire long arm of human chromosome 2 for fluorescencein situ hybridization and comparative mapping of the chromosomes of human, great apes (Pan troglodytes, Pan paniscus, Gorilla gorilla, Pongo pygmaeus) and Old World monkeys (Macaca fuscata andCercopithecus aethiops). Inversions were found in the pericentric region of the primate chromosome 2p homologs in great apes, and the hybridization pattern demonstrates the known phylogenetically derived telomere fusion in the line that leads to human chromosome 2. The hybridization of the 2q microlibrary to chromosomes of Old World monkeys gave a different pattern from that in the gorilla and the orang-utan, but a pattern similar to that of chimpanzees. This suggests convergence of chromosomal rearrangements in different phylogenetic lines

A New Calibrated Bayesian Internal Goodness-of-Fit Method: Sampled Posterior p-Values as Simple and General p-Values That Allow Double Use of the Data

Background: Recent approaches mixing frequentist principles with Bayesian inference propose internal goodness-of-fit (GOF) p-values that might be valuable for critical analysis of Bayesian statistical models. However, GOF p-values developed to date only have known probability distributions under restrictive conditions. As a result, no known GOF p-value has a known probability distribution for any discrepancy function. Methodology/Principal Findings: We show mathematically that a new GOF p-value, called the sampled posterior p-value (SPP), asymptotically has a uniform probability distribution whatever the discrepancy function. In a moderate finite sample context, simulations also showed that the SPP appears stable to relatively uninformative misspecifications of the prior distribution. Conclusions/Significance: These reasons, together with its numerical simplicity, make the SPP a better canonical GOF p-value than existing GOF p-values

Ecological Modeling of Aedes aegypti (L.) Pupal Production in Rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand

Background - Aedes aegypti (L.) is the primary vector of dengue, the most important arboviral infection globally. Until an effective vaccine is licensed and rigorously administered, Ae. aegypti control remains the principal tool in preventing and curtailing dengue transmission. Accurate predictions of vector populations are required to assess control methods and develop effective population reduction strategies. Ae. aegypti develops primarily in artificial water holding containers. Release recapture studies indicate that most adult Ae. aegypti do not disperse over long distances. We expect, therefore, that containers in an area of high development site density are more likely to be oviposition sites and to be more frequently used as oviposition sites than containers that are relatively isolated from other development sites. After accounting for individual container characteristics, containers more frequently used as oviposition sites are likely to produce adult mosquitoes consistently and at a higher rate. To this point, most studies of Ae. aegypti populations ignore the spatial density of larval development sites. Methodology - Pupal surveys were carried out from 2004 to 2007 in rural Kamphaeng Phet, Thailand. In total, 84,840 samples of water holding containers were used to estimate model parameters. Regression modeling was used to assess the effect of larval development site density, access to piped water, and seasonal variation on container productivity. A varying-coefficients model was employed to account for the large differences in productivity between container types. A two-part modeling structure, called a hurdle model, accounts for the large number of zeroes and overdispersion present in pupal population counts. Findings - The number of suitable larval development sites and their density in the environment were the primary determinants of the distribution and abundance of Ae. aegypti pupae. The productivity of most container types increased significantly as habitat density increased. An ecological approach, accounting for development site density, is appropriate for predicting Ae. aegypti population levels and developing efficient vector control program

A Bayesian method for calculating real-time quantitative PCR calibration curves using absolute plasmid DNA standards

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In real-time quantitative PCR studies using absolute plasmid DNA standards, a calibration curve is developed to estimate an unknown DNA concentration. However, potential differences in the amplification performance of plasmid DNA compared to genomic DNA standards are often ignored in calibration calculations and in some cases impossible to characterize. A flexible statistical method that can account for uncertainty between plasmid and genomic DNA targets, replicate testing, and experiment-to-experiment variability is needed to estimate calibration curve parameters such as intercept and slope. Here we report the use of a Bayesian approach to generate calibration curves for the enumeration of target DNA from genomic DNA samples using absolute plasmid DNA standards.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Instead of the two traditional methods (classical and inverse), a Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) estimation was used to generate single, master, and modified calibration curves. The mean and the percentiles of the posterior distribution were used as point and interval estimates of unknown parameters such as intercepts, slopes and DNA concentrations. The software WinBUGS was used to perform all simulations and to generate the posterior distributions of all the unknown parameters of interest.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Bayesian approach defined in this study allowed for the estimation of DNA concentrations from environmental samples using absolute standard curves generated by real-time qPCR. The approach accounted for uncertainty from multiple sources such as experiment-to-experiment variation, variability between replicate measurements, as well as uncertainty introduced when employing calibration curves generated from absolute plasmid DNA standards.</p

Parasitoid Increases Survival of Its Pupae by Inducing Hosts to Fight Predators

Many true parasites and parasitoids modify the behaviour of their host, and these changes are thought to be to the benefit of the parasites. However, field tests of this hypothesis are scarce, and it is often unclear whether the host or the parasite profits from the behavioural changes, or even if parasitism is a cause or consequence of the behaviour. We show that braconid parasitoids (Glyptapanteles sp.) induce their caterpillar host (Thyrinteina leucocerae) to behave as a bodyguard of the parasitoid pupae. After parasitoid larvae exit from the host to pupate, the host stops feeding, remains close to the pupae, knocks off predators with violent head-swings, and dies before reaching adulthood. Unparasitized caterpillars do not show these behaviours. In the field, the presence of bodyguard hosts resulted in a two-fold reduction in mortality of parasitoid pupae. Hence, the behaviour appears to be parasitoid-induced and confers benefits exclusively to the parasitoid

What are we measuring? A critique of range of motion methods currently in use for Dupuytren's disease and recommendations for practice

Background: Range of motion is the most frequently reported measure used in practice to evaluate outcomes. A goniometer is the most reliable tool to assess range of motion yet, the lack of consistency in reporting prevents comparison between studies. The aim of this study is to identify how range of motion is currently assessed and reported in Dupuytren’s disease literature. Following analysis recommendations for practice will be made to enable consistency in future studies for comparability. This paper highlights the variation in range of motion reporting in Dupuytren’s disease. Methods: A Participants, Intervention, Comparison, Outcomes and Study design format was used for the search strategy and search terms. Surgery, needle fasciotomy or collagenase injection for primary or recurrent Dupuytren’s disease in adults were included if outcomes were monitored using range of motion to record change. A literature search was performed in May 2013 using subject heading and free-text terms to also capture electronic publications ahead of print. In total 638 publications were identified and following screening 90 articles met the inclusion criteria. Data was extracted and entered onto a spreadsheet for analysis. A thematic analysis was carried out to establish any duplication, resulting in the final range of motion measures identified. Results: Range of motion measurement lacked clarity, with goniometry reportedly used in only 43 of the 90 studies, 16 stated the use of a range of motion protocol. A total of 24 different descriptors were identified describing range of motion in the 90 studies. While some studies reported active range of motion, others reported passive or were unclear. Eight of the 24 categories were identified through thematic analysis as possibly describing the same measure, ‘lack of joint extension’ and accounted for the most frequently used. Conclusions: Published studies lacked clarity in reporting range of motion, preventing data comparison and meta-analysis. Percentage change lacks context and without access to raw data, does not allow direct comparison of baseline characteristics. A clear description of what is being measured within each study was required. It is recommended that range of motion measuring and reporting for Dupuytren’s disease requires consistency to address issues that fall into 3 main categories:- Definition of terms Protocol statement Outcome reportin

Hand gesture-based interactive puppetry system to assist storytelling for children

© 2016 The Author(s)Digital techniques have been used to assist narrative and storytelling, especially in many pedagogical practices. With the rapid development of HCI techniques, saturated with digital media in their daily lives, young children, demands more interactive learning methods and meaningful immersive learning experiences. In this paper, we propose a novel hand gesture-based puppetry storytelling system which provides a more intuitive and natural human computer interaction method for young children to develop narrative ability in virtual story world. Depth motion sensing and hand gestures control technology is utilized in the implementation of user-friendly interaction. Young players could intuitively use hand gestures to manipulate virtual puppet to perform story and interact with different items in virtual environment to assist narration. Based on the result of the evaluation, this novel digital storytelling system shows positive pedagogical functions on children’s narrating ability as well as the competencies of cognitive and motor coordination. The usability of the system is preliminary examined in our test, and the results which showed that young children can benefit from playing with Puppet Narrator

The Occurrence of Photorhabdus-Like Toxin Complexes in Bacillus thuringiensis

Recently, genomic sequencing of a Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) isolate from our collection revealed the presence of an apparent operon encoding an insecticidal toxin complex (Tca) similar to that first described from the entomopathogen Photorhabdus luminescens. To determine whether these genes are widespread among Bt strains, we screened isolates from the collection for the presence of tccC, one of the genes needed for the expression of fully functional toxin complexes. Among 81 isolates chosen to represent commonly encountered biochemical phenotypes, 17 were found to possess a tccC. Phylogenetic analysis of the 81 isolates by multilocus sequence typing revealed that all the isolates possessing a tccC gene were restricted to two sequence types related to Bt varieties morrisoni, tenebrionis, israelensis and toumanoffi. Sequencing of the ∼17 kb tca operon from two isolates representing each of the two sequence types revealed >99% sequence identity. Optical mapping of DNA from Bt isolates representing each of the sequence types revealed nearly identical plasmids of ca. 333 and 338 kbp, respectively. Selected isolates were found to be toxic to gypsy moth larvae, but were not as effective as a commercial strain of Bt kurstaki. Some isolates were found to inhibit growth of Colorado potato beetle. Custom Taqman® relative quantitative real-time PCR assays for Tc-encoding Bt revealed both tcaA and tcaB genes were expressed within infected gypsy moth larvae