Modeling Customer Lifetimes with Multiple Causes of Churn

Customer retention and customer churn are key metrics of interest to marketers, but little attention has been placed on linking the different reasons for which customers churn to their value to a contractual service provider. In this paper, we put forth a hierarchical competing-risk model to jointly model when customers choose to terminate their service and why. Some of these reasons for churn can be influenced by the firm (e.g., service problems or price–value trade-offs), but others are uncontrollable (e.g., customer relocation and death). Using this framework, we demonstrate that the impact of a firm's efforts to reduce customer churn for controllable reasons is mitigated by the prevalence of uncontrollable ones, resulting in a “damper effect” on the return from a firm's retention marketing efforts. We use data from a provider of land-based telecommunication services to demonstrate how the competing-risk model can be used to derive a measure of the incremental customer value that a firm can expect to accrue through its efforts to delay churn, taking this damper effect into account. In addition to varying across customers based on geodemographic information, the magnitude of the damper effect depends on a customer's tenure to date. We discuss how our framework can be used to tailor the firm's retention strategy to individual customers, both in terms of which customers to target and when retention efforts should be deployed

The Transit Light Curve Project. VII. The Not-So-Bloated Exoplanet HAT-P-1b

We present photometry of the G0 star HAT-P-1 during six transits of its close-in giant planet, and we refine the estimates of the system parameters. Relative to Jupiter's properties, HAT-P-1b is 1.20 +/- 0.05 times larger and its surface gravity is 2.7 +/- 0.2 times weaker. Although it remains the case that HAT-P-1b is among the least dense of the known sample of transiting exoplanets, its properties are in accord with previously published models of strongly irradiated, coreless, solar-composition giant planets. The times of the transits have a typical accuracy of 1 min and do not depart significantly from a constant period.Comment: To appear in AJ [19pg, 3 figures]. New co-author added. Minor revisions to match published versio

Analyze This! A Cosmological Constraint Package for CMBEASY

We introduce a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation and data analysis package that extends the CMBEASY software. We have taken special care in implementing an adaptive step algorithm for the Markov Chain Monte Carlo in order to improve convergence. Data analysis routines are provided which allow to test models of the Universe against measurements of the cosmic microwave background, supernovae Ia and large scale structure. We present constraints on cosmological parameters derived from these measurements for a $\Lambda$CDM cosmology and discuss the impact of the different observational data sets on the parameters. The package is publicly available as part of the CMBEASY software at www.cmbeasy.org.Comment: Published version, JCAP style, 16 pages, 7 figures. The software is available at http://www.cmbeasy.or

A Bayesian approach to analyzing phenotype microarray data enables estimation of microbial growth parameters

Biolog phenotype microarrays enable simultaneous, high throughput analysis of cell cultures in different environments. The output is high-density time-course data showing redox curves (approximating growth) for each experimental condition. The software provided with the Omnilog incubator/reader summarizes each time-course as a single datum, so most of the information is not used. However, the time courses can be extremely varied and often contain detailed qualitative (shape of curve) and quantitative (values of parameters) information. We present a novel, Bayesian approach to estimating parameters from Phenotype Microarray data, fitting growth models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to enable high throughput estimation of important information, including length of lag phase, maximal ``growth'' rate and maximum output. We find that the Baranyi model for microbial growth is useful for fitting Biolog data. Moreover, we introduce a new growth model that allows for diauxic growth with a lag phase, which is particularly useful where Phenotype Microarrays have been applied to cells grown in complex mixtures of substrates, for example in industrial or biotechnological applications, such as worts in brewing. Our approach provides more useful information from Biolog data than existing, competing methods, and allows for valuable comparisons between data series and across different models

XO-2b: Transiting Hot Jupiter in a Metal-rich Common Proper Motion Binary

We report on a V=11.2 early K dwarf, XO-2 (GSC 03413-00005), that hosts a Rp=0.98+0.03/-0.01 Rjup, Mp=0.57+/-0.06 Mjup transiting extrasolar planet, XO-2b, with an orbital period of 2.615857+/-0.000005 days. XO-2 has high metallicity, [Fe/H]=0.45+/-0.02, high proper motion, mu_tot=157 mas/yr, and has a common proper motion stellar companion with 31" separation. The two stars are nearly identical twins, with very similar spectra and apparent magnitudes. Due to the high metallicity, these early K dwarf stars have a mass and radius close to solar, Ms=0.98+/-0.02 Msolar and Rs=0.97+0.02/-0.01 Rsolar. The high proper motion of XO-2 results from an eccentric orbit (Galactic pericenter, Rper<4 kpc) well confined to the Galactic disk (Zmax~100 pc). In addition, the phase space position of XO-2 is near the Hercules dynamical stream, which points to an origin of XO-2 in the metal-rich, inner Thin Disk and subsequent dynamical scattering into the solar neighborhood. We describe an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for calculating the Bayesian posterior probability of the system parameters from a transit light curve.Comment: 14 pages, 10 Figures, Accepted in ApJ. Negligible changes to XO-2 system properties. Removed Chi^2 light curve analysis section, and simplified MCMC light curve analysis discussio

Exploring Author Gender in Book Rating and Recommendation

Collaborative filtering algorithms find useful patterns in rating and consumption data and exploit these patterns to guide users to good items. Many of the patterns in rating datasets reflect important real-world differences between the various users and items in the data; other patterns may be irrelevant or possibly undesirable for social or ethical reasons, particularly if they reflect undesired discrimination, such as gender or ethnic discrimination in publishing. In this work, we examine the response of collaborative filtering recommender algorithms to the distribution of their input data with respect to a dimension of social concern, namely content creator gender. Using publicly-available book ratings data, we measure the distribution of the genders of the authors of books in user rating profiles and recommendation lists produced from this data. We find that common collaborative filtering algorithms differ in the gender distribution of their recommendation lists, and in the relationship of that output distribution to user profile distribution

Long-term effects of chronic light pollution on seasonal functions of European blackbirds (turdus merula)

Light pollution is known to affect important biological functions of wild animals, including daily and annual cycles. However, knowledge about long-term effects of chronic exposure to artificial light at night is still very limited. Here we present data on reproductive physiology, molt and locomotor activity during two-year cycles of European blackbirds (Turdus merula) exposed to either dark nights or 0.3 lux at night. As expected, control birds kept under dark nights exhibited two regular testicular and testosterone cycles during the two-year experiment. Control urban birds developed testes faster than their control rural conspecifics. Conversely, while in the first year blackbirds exposed to light at night showed a normal but earlier gonadal cycle compared to control birds, during the second year the reproductive system did not develop at all: both testicular size and testosterone concentration were at baseline levels in all birds. In addition, molt sequence in light-treated birds was more irregular than in control birds in both years. Analysis of locomotor activity showed that birds were still synchronized to the underlying light-dark cycle. We suggest that the lack of reproductive activity and irregular molt progression were possibly the results of i) birds being stuck in a photorefractory state and/or ii) chronic stress. Our data show that chronic low intensities of light at night can dramatically affect the reproductive system. Future studies are needed in order to investigate if and how urban animals avoid such negative impact and to elucidate the physiological mechanisms behind these profound long-term effects of artificial light at night. Finally we call for collaboration between scientists and policy makers to limit the impact of light pollution on animals and ecosystems

The Dawn of Open Access to Phylogenetic Data

The scientific enterprise depends critically on the preservation of and open access to published data. This basic tenet applies acutely to phylogenies (estimates of evolutionary relationships among species). Increasingly, phylogenies are estimated from increasingly large, genome-scale datasets using increasingly complex statistical methods that require increasing levels of expertise and computational investment. Moreover, the resulting phylogenetic data provide an explicit historical perspective that critically informs research in a vast and growing number of scientific disciplines. One such use is the study of changes in rates of lineage diversification (speciation - extinction) through time. As part of a meta-analysis in this area, we sought to collect phylogenetic data (comprising nucleotide sequence alignment and tree files) from 217 studies published in 46 journals over a 13-year period. We document our attempts to procure those data (from online archives and by direct request to corresponding authors), and report results of analyses (using Bayesian logistic regression) to assess the impact of various factors on the success of our efforts. Overall, complete phylogenetic data for ~60% of these studies are effectively lost to science. Our study indicates that phylogenetic data are more likely to be deposited in online archives and/or shared upon request when: (1) the publishing journal has a strong data-sharing policy; (2) the publishing journal has a higher impact factor, and; (3) the data are requested from faculty rather than students. Although the situation appears dire, our analyses suggest that it is far from hopeless: recent initiatives by the scientific community -- including policy changes by journals and funding agencies -- are improving the state of affairs