An approach to estimating prognosis using fractional polynomials in metastatic renal carcinoma

We present a prognostic model for metastatic renal cell carcinoma based on fractional polynomials. We retrospectively analysed 425 metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients treated with subcutaneous recombinant cytokine-based home therapies in consecutive trials. In our approach, we categorised a continuous prognostic index produced by the multivariable fractional polynomial (MFP) algorithm, using a strategy in which continuous predictors are kept continuous. The MFP algorithm selected five prognostic factors as significant at the 5% level in a multivariable model: lymph node metastases, liver metastases, bone metastases, age, C-reactive protein and neutrophils. The MFP model allowed us to divide patients into four risk groups achieving median overall survivals of 38 months (low risk), 23 months (low intermediate risk), 15 months (high intermediate risk) and 5.6 months (high risk). Our approach, based on categorising a continuous prognostic index produced by the MFP algorithm, allowed more flexibility in the determination of risk groups than traditional approaches

Metastatic renal carcinoma comprehensive prognostic system

The purpose of the study was to identify a comprehensive prognostic system of pretreatment clinical parameters in 425 patients (pts) with metastatic renal-cell carcinoma treated with different subcutaneous (s.c.) recombinant cytokine-based home therapies in consecutive trials. Treatment consisted of (A) s.c. interferon-α2a (INF-α), s.c. interleukin-2 (IL-2) (n=102 pts), (B) s.c. IFN-α2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) (n=235 pts) or (C) s.c. IFN-α2a, s.c. IL-2, and i.v. 5-FU combined with p.o. 13-cis-retinoic acid (13cRA) (n=88 pts). Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, log-rank statistics, and Cox regression analysis were employed to identify risk factors and to create a multiple risk factor model. The following pretreatment risk factors were identified by univariate analysis: (1) three and more metastatic sites, (2) presence of liver, lymph node or bone metastases, (3) neutrophil count ⩾6500 cells μl−1, (4) serum lactate dehydrogenase level (LDH) ⩾220 U l−1, and (5) serum C-reactive protein level (CRP) ⩾11 mg l−1. Cox regression analysis with forward stepwise variable selection identified neutrophil count as the major prognostic factor (hazard ratio=1.9, P<0.001), while serum levels of LDH and CRP, time between diagnosis of tumour and onset of metastatic disease, number of metastatic sites, and bone metastases were significant but somewhat less important prognostic variables within the multiple risk factor model (hazard ratio ⩽1.5). Patients were assigned to one of the three risk groups according to cumulative risk defined as the sum of simplified risk s.c.ores for six pretreatment variables. Low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients achieved a median overall survival of 32+ months (95% CI 24, 43; 5-year survival of 27%), 18+ months (95% CI 15, 20; 5-year survival of 11%), and 8+ months (95% CI 6, 10; 5-year survival of 5%), respectively. These prognostic categories are helpful both in individual patient care and in the assessment of patients entering prospective clinical trials

The free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin as a prognostic factor in renal cell carcinoma

The free β-subunit of human chorionic gonadotropin β is expressed in several nontrophoblastic tumours and this is usually associated with aggressive disease. Little is known about human chorionic gonadotropin β expression in renal cancer. We determined the pretreatment levels of human chorionic gonadotropin β in serum of patients with renal cell carcinoma, and studied whether elevated levels predicted the clinical outcome. Serum samples were collected before surgery from 177 patients with renal cell carcinoma and from 84 apparently healthy controls. Human chorionic gonadotropin β in serum was measured by a highly sensitive time-resolved immunofluorometric assay. The prognostic value of human chorionic gonadotropin β, and of usual clinical and pathological variables was analyzed by the Kaplan-Meier method, the log rank test and Cox multiple hazard regression. The serum concentrations of human chorionic gonadotropin β were increased in 23% of the renal cell carcinoma patients and they were significantly higher in patients with renal cell carcinoma than in controls (P<0.0001). The concentrations did not correlate with clinical stage and histopathological grade, but patients with increased human chorionic gonadotropin β levels had significantly shorter survival time than those with levels below the median (cut-off 1.2 pmol l−1, P=0.0029). In multivariate analysis human chorionic gonadotropin β, tumour stage and grade were independent prognostic variables. The serum concentration of human chorionic gonadotropin β is an independent prognostic variable in renal cell carcinoma. The preoperative value of human chorionic gonadotropin β in serum may be used to identify patents with increased risk of progressive disease

Avelumab (anti-PD-L1) as first-line switch-maintenance or second-line therapy in patients with advanced gastric or gastroesophageal junction cancer: phase 1b results from the JAVELIN Solid Tumor trial

Background We evaluated the antitumor activity and safety of avelumab, a human anti–PD-L1 IgG1 antibody, as first-line switch-maintenance (1 L-mn) or second-line (2 L) treatment in patients with advanced gastric/gastroesophageal cancer (GC/GEJC) previously treated with chemotherapy. Methods In a phase 1b expansion cohort, patients without (1 L-mn) or with (2 L) disease progression following first-line chemotherapy for advanced GC/GEJC received avelumab 10 mg/kg intravenously every 2 weeks. Endpoints included best overall response, progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and safety. Results Overall, 150 patients were enrolled (1 L-mn, n = 90; 2 L, n = 60) and median follow-up in the 1 L-mn and 2 L subgroups was 36.0 and 33.7 months, respectively. The confirmed objective response rate was 6.7% in both subgroups (95% CI, 2.5–13.9% and 1.8–16.2%, respectively), including complete responses in 2.2% of the 1 L-mn subgroup (n = 2). In the 1 L-mn and 2 L subgroups, median duration of response was 21.4 months (95% CI, 4.0–not estimable) and 3.5 months (95% CI, 2.8–8.3) and disease control rates were 56.7 and 28.3%, respectively. Median PFS in the 1 L-mn and 2 L subgroups was 2.8 months (95% CI, 2.3–4.1) and 1.4 months (95% CI, 1.3–1.5), with 6-month PFS rates of 23.0% (95% CI, 14.7–32.4%) and 7.9% (95% CI, 2.6–17.2%), and median OS was 11.1 months (95% CI, 8.9–13.7) and 6.6 months (95% CI, 5.4–9.4), respectively. In the 1 L-mn subgroup, median OS measured from start of 1 L chemotherapy was 18.7 months (95% CI, 15.4–20.6). Across both subgroups, 20.7% had an infusion-related reaction of any grade. Other common treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) of any grade included fatigue (10.0%) and nausea (6.7%). Treatment-related serious adverse events occurred in 4.0% of patients. Overall, 8.7% had a grade ≥3 TRAE, including 1 treatment-related death. Conclusion Avelumab showed clinical activity and an acceptable safety profile in patients with GC/GEJC

The prevalence of stunting, overweight and obesity, and metabolic disease risk in rural South African children.

BACKGROUND: Low- to middle-income countries are undergoing a health transition with non-communicable diseases contributing substantially to disease burden, despite persistence of undernutrition and infectious diseases. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and patterns of stunting and overweight/obesity, and hence risk for metabolic disease, in a group of children and adolescents in rural South Africa. METHODS: A cross-sectional growth survey was conducted involving 3511 children and adolescents 1-20 years, selected through stratified random sampling from a previously enumerated population living in Agincourt sub-district, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa. Anthropometric measurements including height, weight and waist circumference were taken using standard procedures. Tanner pubertal assessment was conducted among adolescents 9-20 years. Growth z-scores were generated using 2006 WHO standards for children up to five years and 1977 NCHS/WHO reference for older children. Overweight and obesity for those or = 25 and > or = 30 kg/m2 for overweight and obesity respectively were used for those > or = 18 years. Waist circumference cut-offs of > or = 94 cm for males and > or = 80 cm for females and waist-to-height ratio of 0.5 for both sexes were used to determine metabolic disease risk in adolescents. RESULTS: About one in five children aged 1-4 years was stunted; one in three of those aged one year. Concurrently, the prevalence of combined overweight and obesity, almost non-existent in boys, was substantial among adolescent girls, increasing with age and reaching approximately 20-25% in late adolescence. Central obesity was prevalent among adolescent girls, increasing with sexual maturation and reaching a peak of 35% at Tanner Stage 5, indicating increased risk for metabolic disease. CONCLUSIONS: The study highlights that in transitional societies, early stunting and adolescent obesity may co-exist in the same socio-geographic population. It is likely that this profile relates to changes in nutrition and diet, but variation in factors such as infectious disease burden and physical activity patterns, as well as social influences, need to be investigated. As obesity and adult short stature are risk factors for metabolic syndrome and Type 2 diabetes, this combination of early stunting and adolescent obesity may be an explosive combination

Cardiac tumours in children

Cardiac tumours are benign or malignant neoplasms arising primarily in the inner lining, muscle layer, or the surrounding pericardium of the heart. They can be primary or metastatic. Primary cardiac tumours are rare in paediatric practice with a prevalence of 0.0017 to 0.28 in autopsy series. In contrast, the incidence of cardiac tumours during foetal life has been reported to be approximately 0.14%. The vast majority of primary cardiac tumours in children are benign, whilst approximately 10% are malignant. Secondary malignant tumours are 10–20 times more prevalent than primary malignant tumours. Rhabdomyoma is the most common cardiac tumour during foetal life and childhood. It accounts for more than 60% of all primary cardiac tumours. The frequency and type of cardiac tumours in adults differ from those in children with 75% being benign and 25% being malignant. Myxomas are the most common primary tumours in adults constituting 40% of benign tumours. Sarcomas make up 75% of malignant cardiac masses. Echocardiography, Computing Tomography (CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) of the heart are the main non-invasive diagnostic tools. Cardiac catheterisation is seldom necessary. Tumour biopsy with histological assessment remains the gold standard for confirmation of the diagnosis. Surgical resection of primary cardiac tumours should be considered to relieve symptoms and mechanical obstruction to blood flow. The outcome of surgical resection in symptomatic, non-myxomatous benign cardiac tumours is favourable. Patients with primary cardiac malignancies may benefit from palliative surgery but this approach should not be recommended for patients with metastatic cardiac tumours. Surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy may prolong survival. The prognosis for malignant primary cardiac tumours is generally extremely poor

Analysis of Parkinson disease patients from Portugal for mutations in SNCA, PRKN, PINK1 and LRRK2

Background: Mutations in the genes PRKN and LRRK2 are the most frequent known genetic lesions among Parkinson's disease patients. We have previously reported that in the Portuguese population the LRRK2 c.6055G > A; p.G2019S mutation has one of the highest frequencies in Europe.Methods: Here, we follow up on those results, screening not only LRRK2, but also PRKN, SNCA and PINK1 in a cohort of early-onset and late-onset familial Portuguese Parkinson disease patients. This series comprises 66 patients selected from a consecutive series of 132 patients. This selection was made in order to include only early onset patients (age at onset below 50 years) or late-onset patients with a positive family history (at least one affected relative). All genes were sequenced bi-directionally, and, additionally, SNCA, PRKN and PINK1 were subjected to gene dosage analysis.Results: We found mutations both in LRRK2 and PRKN, while the remaining genes yielded no mutations. Seven of the studied patients showed pathogenic mutations, in homozygosity or compound heterozygosity for PRKN, and heterozygosity for LRRK2.Conclusion: Mutations are common in Portuguese patients with Parkinson's disease, and these results clearly have implications not only for the genetic diagnosis, but also for the genetic counseling of these patients

Antiinflammatory Therapy with Canakinumab for Atherosclerotic Disease

Background: Experimental and clinical data suggest that reducing inflammation without affecting lipid levels may reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Yet, the inflammatory hypothesis of atherothrombosis has remained unproved. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind trial of canakinumab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody targeting interleukin-1β, involving 10,061 patients with previous myocardial infarction and a high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level of 2 mg or more per liter. The trial compared three doses of canakinumab (50 mg, 150 mg, and 300 mg, administered subcutaneously every 3 months) with placebo. The primary efficacy end point was nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death. RESULTS: At 48 months, the median reduction from baseline in the high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level was 26 percentage points greater in the group that received the 50-mg dose of canakinumab, 37 percentage points greater in the 150-mg group, and 41 percentage points greater in the 300-mg group than in the placebo group. Canakinumab did not reduce lipid levels from baseline. At a median follow-up of 3.7 years, the incidence rate for the primary end point was 4.50 events per 100 person-years in the placebo group, 4.11 events per 100 person-years in the 50-mg group, 3.86 events per 100 person-years in the 150-mg group, and 3.90 events per 100 person-years in the 300-mg group. The hazard ratios as compared with placebo were as follows: in the 50-mg group, 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 1.07; P = 0.30); in the 150-mg group, 0.85 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.98; P = 0.021); and in the 300-mg group, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.031). The 150-mg dose, but not the other doses, met the prespecified multiplicity-adjusted threshold for statistical significance for the primary end point and the secondary end point that additionally included hospitalization for unstable angina that led to urgent revascularization (hazard ratio vs. placebo, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.95; P = 0.005). Canakinumab was associated with a higher incidence of fatal infection than was placebo. There was no significant difference in all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for all canakinumab doses vs. placebo, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.06; P = 0.31). Conclusions: Antiinflammatory therapy targeting the interleukin-1β innate immunity pathway with canakinumab at a dose of 150 mg every 3 months led to a significantly lower rate of recurrent cardiovascular events than placebo, independent of lipid-level lowering. (Funded by Novartis; CANTOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01327846.