Using infrared spectroscopy to evaluate physiological ageing in stored potatoes (Solanum tuberosum)

The potato tuber is one of world’s largest food crops and in most growing regions is only harvested once a year. A proportion of tubers must therefore be stored efficiently to ensure there are enough provisions to last until the next harvest. Dormancy break during storage causes reduced tuber quality and potentially considerable losses. The aim of this work has been to determine whether Vis/NIR Spectroscopy can be used to monitor tuber dormancy, and further, to predict the onset of sprouting within a potato tuber. Small changes in Chlorophyll (Chl) production can be tracked in the tissue under the surface skin of a potato tuber, using a Vis/NIR spectrometer equipped with a fibre-optic probe. A static experimental setup yielded precise measurements of these subtle changes when the tuber was stimulated with light, long before visible greening occurred. It was found that there is a greater capacity for Chl production around the apical buds or “eyes” of a tuber compared with the surrounding tissue. These results held true for several cultivars from multiple harvests over the four years of the project. The technique however is very sensitive to the exact positioning of the tuber-probe alignment, due to the highly localised area of increased activity in the Chl production under an eye and the shape of the tuber itself. Although Chl is not produced in tubers whilst kept in cold dark storage, a tuber’s capacity to produce Chl once removed was found to change over the course of long-term storage. This behaviour was well fitted by a generalised logistic function. Prediction of the onset of dormancy break could be made from the shape of the curve from individual tuber batches. A proviso throughout is that sufficient tubers need to be analysed to obtain a meaningful batch average. The large tuber-to-tuber variance in behaviour remains the greatest challenge to translating this work into real world settings

Using induced chlorophyll production to monitor the physiological state of stored potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.)

A Visible/Near-infrared (Vis/NIR) spectrometer equipped with a fibre-optic probe was used to stimulate and measure chlorophyll production in potato tubers, at low levels that produce no visible greening in the skin. Subtle responses to changes in the light stimulus were also tracked. When used with a static experimental setup, these measurements are precise. However, the technique is very sensitive to the exact geometry of the tuber-probe arrangement, and careful positioning of the probe is crucial. Complementary studies established that tissue under the apical buds (‘eyes’) has greater capacity to produce chlorophyll than other locations on the tuber surface. A long-term study of multiple tubers suggested that different cultivars behave differently in terms of the rate of chlorophyll production. These behavioural differences may be related to the batch dormancy status; validating this potential relationship is the focus of ongoing work

Maximising HIV prevention by balancing the opportunities of today with the promises of tomorrow: a modelling study

SummaryBackgroundMany ways of preventing HIV infection have been proposed and more are being developed. We sought to construct a strategic approach to HIV prevention that would use limited resources to achieve the greatest possible prevention impact through the use of interventions available today and in the coming years.MethodsWe developed a deterministic compartmental model of heterosexual HIV transmission in South Africa and formed assumptions about the costs and effects of a range of interventions, encompassing the further scale-up of existing interventions (promoting condom use, male circumcision, early antiretroviral therapy [ART] initiation for all [including increased HIV testing and counselling activities], and oral pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]), the introduction of new interventions in the medium term (offering intravaginal rings, long-acting injectable antiretroviral drugs) and long term (vaccine, broadly neutralising antibodies [bNAbs]). We examined how available resources could be allocated across these interventions to achieve maximum impact, and assessed how this would be affected by the failure of the interventions to be developed or scaled up.FindingsIf all interventions are available, the optimum mix would place great emphasis on the following: scale-up of male circumcision and early ART initiation with outreach testing, as these are available immediately and assumed to be low cost and highly efficacious; intravaginal rings targeted to sex workers; and vaccines, as these can achieve a large effect if scaled up even if imperfectly efficacious. The optimum mix would rely less on longer term developments, such as long-acting antiretroviral drugs and bNAbs, unless the costs of these reduced. However, if impossible to scale up existing interventions to the extent assumed, emphasis on oral PrEP, intravaginal rings, and long-acting antiretroviral drugs would increase. The long-term effect on the epidemic is most affected by scale-up of existing interventions and the successful development of a vaccine.InterpretationWith current information, a strategic approach in which limited resources are used to maximise prevention impact would focus on strengthening the scale-up of existing interventions, while pursuing a workable vaccine and developing other approaches that can be used if further scale-up of existing interventions is limited.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Development of Public Health Core Outcome Sets for Systems-Wide Promotion of Early Life Health and Wellbeing

We aimed to develop a core outcome set (COS) for systems-wide public health interventions seeking to promote early life health and wellbeing. Research was embedded within the existing systems-based intervention research programme ‘ActEarly’, located in two different areas with high rates of child poverty, Bradford (West Yorkshire) and the Borough of Tower Hamlets (London). 168 potential outcomes were derived from five local government outcome frameworks, a community-led survey and an ActEarly consortium workshop. Two rounds of a Delphi study (Round 1: 37 participants; Round 2: 56 participants) reduced the number of outcomes to 64. 199 members of the community then took part in consultations across ActEarly sites, resulting in a final COS for systems-based public health interventions of 40 outcomes. These were grouped into the domains of: Development & education (N = 6); Physical health & health behaviors (N = 6); Mental health (N = 5); Social environment (N = 4); Physical environment (N = 7); and Poverty & inequality (N = 7). This process has led to a COS with outcomes prioritized from the perspectives of local communities. It provides the means to increase standardization and guide the selection of outcome measures for systems-based evaluation of public health programmes and supports evaluation of individual interventions within system change approaches

Meta-evaluation of a whole systems programme, ActEarly: a study protocol

INTRODUCTION: Living in an area with high levels of child poverty predisposes children to poorer mental and physical health. ActEarly is a 5-year research programme that comprises a large number of interventions (>20) with citizen science and co-production embedded. It aims to improve the health and well-being of children and families living in two areas of the UK with high levels of deprivation; Bradford in West Yorkshire, and the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. This protocol outlines the meta-evaluation (an evaluation of evaluations) of the ActEarly programme from a systems perspective, where individual interventions are viewed as events in the wider policy system across the two geographical areas. It includes investigating the programme's impact on early life health and well-being outcomes, interdisciplinary prevention research collaboration and capacity building, and local and national decision making. METHODS: The ActEarly meta-evaluation will follow and adapt the five iterative stages of the 'Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems' (ENCOMPASS) framework for evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Theory-based and mixed-methods approaches will be used to investigate the fidelity of the ActEarly research programme, and whether, why and how ActEarly contributes to changes in the policy system, and whether alternative explanations can be ruled out. Ripple effects and systems mapping will be used to explore the relationships between interventions and their outcomes, and the degree to which the ActEarly programme encouraged interdisciplinary and prevention research collaboration as intended. A computer simulation model ("LifeSim") will also be used to evaluate the scale of the potential long-term benefits of cross-sectoral action to tackle the financial, educational and health disadvantages faced by children in Bradford and Tower Hamlets. Together, these approaches will be used to evaluate ActEarly's dynamic programme outputs at different system levels and measure the programme's system changes on early life health and well-being. DISCUSSION: This meta-evaluation protocol presents our plans for using and adapting the ENCOMPASS framework to evaluate the system-wide impact of the early life health and well-being programme, ActEarly. Due to the collaborative and non-linear nature of the work, we reserve the option to change and query some of our evaluation choices based on the feedback we receive from stakeholders to ensure that our evaluation remains relevant and fit for purpose

Meta-evaluation of a whole systems programme, ActEarly: A study protocol

Introduction: Living in an area with high levels of child poverty predisposes children to poorer mental and physical health. ActEarly is a 5-year research programme that comprises a large number of interventions (>20) with citizen science and co-production embedded. It aims to improve the health and well-being of children and families living in two areas of the UK with high levels of deprivation; Bradford in West Yorkshire, and the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. This protocol outlines the meta-evaluation (an evaluation of evaluations) of the ActEarly programme from a systems perspective, where individual interventions are viewed as events in the wider policy system across the two geographical areas. It includes investigating the programme’s impact on early life health and well-being outcomes, interdisciplinary prevention research collaboration and capacity building, and local and national decision making./ Methods: The ActEarly meta-evaluation will follow and adapt the five iterative stages of the ‘Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems’ (ENCOMPASS) framework for evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Theory-based and mixed-methods approaches will be used to investigate the fidelity of the ActEarly research programme, and whether, why and how ActEarly contributes to changes in the policy system, and whether alternative explanations can be ruled out. Ripple effects and systems mapping will be used to explore the relationships between interventions and their outcomes, and the degree to which the ActEarly programme encouraged interdisciplinary and prevention research collaboration as intended. A computer simulation model (“LifeSim”) will also be used to evaluate the scale of the potential long-term benefits of cross-sectoral action to tackle the financial, educational and health disadvantages faced by children in Bradford and Tower Hamlets. Together, these approaches will be used to evaluate ActEarly’s dynamic programme outputs at different system levels and measure the programme’s system changes on early life health and well-being./ Discussion: This meta-evaluation protocol presents our plans for using and adapting the ENCOMPASS framework to evaluate the system-wide impact of the early life health and well-being programme, ActEarly. Due to the collaborative and non-linear nature of the work, we reserve the option to change and query some of our evaluation choices based on the feedback we receive from stakeholders to ensure that our evaluation remains relevant and fit for purpose

Establishing effective conservation management strategies for a poorly known endangered species: A case study using Australia’s night parrot (Pezoporus occidentalis)

An evidence-based approach to the conservation management of a species requires knowledge of that species’ status, distribution, ecology, and threats. Coupled with budgets for specific conservation strategies, this knowledge allows prioritisation of funding toward activities that maximise benefit for the species. However, many threatened species are poorly known, and determining which conservation strategies will achieve this is difficult. Such cases require approaches that allow decision-making under uncertainty. Here we used structured expert elicitation to estimate the likely benefit of potential management strategies for the Critically Endangered and, until recently, poorly known Night Parrot (Pezoporus occidentalis). Experts considered cat management the single most effective management strategy for the Night Parrot. However, a combination of protecting and actively managing existing intact Night Parrot habitat through management of grazing, controlling feral cats, and managing fire specifically to maintain Night Parrot habitat was thought to result in the greatest conservation gains. The most cost-effective strategies were thought to be fire management to maintain Night Parrot habitat, and intensive cat management using control methods that exploit local knowledge of cat movements and ecology. Protecting and restoring potentially suitable, but degraded, Night Parrot habitat was considered the least effective and least cost-effective strategy. These expert judgements provide an informed starting point for land managers implementing on-ground programs targeting the Night Parrot, and those developing policy aimed at the species’ longer-term conservation. As a set of hypotheses, they should be implemented, assessed, and improved within an adaptive management framework that also considers the likely co-benefits of these strategies for other species and ecosystems. The broader methodology is applicable to conservation planning for the management and conservation of other poorly known threatened species

Identifying the science and technology dimensions of emerging public policy issues through horizon scanning

Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique [1]. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security

Relationships between riverine and terrestrial dissolved organic carbon: Concentration, radiocarbon signature, specific UV absorbance

The transfer of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from land to watercourses plays a major role in the carbon cycle, and in the transport and fate of associated organic and inorganic contaminants. We investigated, at global scale, how the concentrations and properties of riverine DOC depend upon combinations of terrestrial source solutions. For topsoil, subsoil, groundwater and river solutions in different Köppen-Geiger climatic zones, we compiled published and new values of DOC concentration ([DOC]), radiocarbon signature (DO14C), and specific UV absorbance (SUVA). The average value of each DOC variable decreased significantly in magnitude from topsoil to subsoil to groundwater, permitting the terrestrial sources to be distinguished. We used the terrestrial data to simulate the riverine distributions of each variable, and also relationships between pairs of variables. To achieve good matches between observed and simulated data, it was necessary to optimise the distributions of water fractions contributed by each of the three terrestrial sources, and also to reduce the mean input terrestrial [DOC] values, to about 60% of the measured ones. One possible explanation for the required lowering of the modelled terrestrial [DOC] values might be unrepresentative sampling of terrestrial DOC, including dilution effects; another is the loss of DOC during riverine transport. High variations in simulated riverine DOC variables, which match observed data, are due predominantly to variations in source solution values, with a lesser contribution from the different combinations of source waters. On average, most DOC in rivers draining catchments with forest and/or grass-shrub land cover comes in similar amounts from topsoil and subsoil, with about 10% from groundwater. In rivers draining croplands, subsoil and groundwater solutions are the likely dominant DOC sources, while in wetland rivers most DOC is from topsoil

Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems

Food systems have the potential to nurture human health and support environmental sustainability; however, they are currently threatening both. Providing a growing global population with healthy diets from sustainable food systems is an immediate challenge. Although global food production of calories has kept pace with population growth, more than 820 million people have insufficient food and many more consume low-quality diets that cause micronutrient deficiencies and contribute to a substantial rise in the incidence of diet-related obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases, including coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. Unhealthy diets pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined. Because much of the world's population is inadequately nourished and many environmental systems and processes are pushed beyond safe boundaries by food production, a global transformation of the food system is urgently needed