The meaning of justified subjectivism and its role in the reconciliation of recent disagreements over forensic probabilism

In this paper we reply to recent comments in this Special Issue according to which subjective probability is not considered to be a concept fit for use in forensic evaluation and expert reporting. We identify the source of these criticisms to lie in a misunderstanding of subjective probability as unconstrained subjective probability; a lack of constraint that neither corresponds to the way in which we referred to subjective probability in our previous contributions, nor to the way in which probability assignment is understood by current evaluative guidelines (e.g., of ENFSI). Specifically, we explain that we understand subjective probability as a justified assertion, i.e. a conditional assessment based on task-relevant data and information, that may be thought of as a constrained subjective probability. This leads us to emphasise again the general conclusion that there is no gap between justified (or, reasonable) subjective probability and other concepts of probability in terms of its ability to provide assessments that are soundly based on whatever relevant information available. We also note that the challenges an expert faces in reporting probabilities apply equally to all interpretations of probability, not only to subjective probability

Disturbance indicator values for European plants

Motivation Indicator values are numerical values used to characterize the ecological niches of species and to estimate their occurrence along gradients. Indicator values on climatic and edaphic niches of plant species have received considerable attention in ecological research, whereas data on the optimal positioning of species along disturbance gradients are less developed. Here, we present a new data set of disturbance indicator values identifying optima along gradients of natural and anthropogenic disturbance for 6382 vascular plant species based on the analysis of 736,366 European vegetation plots and using expert-based characterization of disturbance regimes in 236 habitat types. The indicator values presented here are crucial for integrating disturbance niche optima into large-scale vegetation analyses and macroecological studies. Main types of variables contained We set up five main continuous indicator values for European vascular plants: disturbance severity, disturbance frequency, mowing frequency, grazing pressure and soil disturbance. The first two indicators are provided separately for the whole community and for the herb layer. We calculated the values as the average of expert-based estimates of disturbance values in all habitat types where a species occurs, weighted by the number of plots in which the species occurs within a given habitat type. Spatial location and grain Europe. Vegetation plots ranging in size from 1 to 1000 m(2). Time period and grain Vegetation plots mostly sampled between 1956 and 2013 (= 5th and 95th quantiles of the sampling year, respectively). Major taxa and level of measurement Species-level indicator values for vascular plants. Software format csv file

Ellenberg-type indicator values for European vascular plant species

Aims: Ellenberg-type indicator values are expert-based rankings of plant species according to their ecological optima on main environmental gradients. Here we extend the indicator-value system proposed by Heinz Ellenberg and co-authors for Central Europe by incorporating other systems of Ellenberg-type indicator values (i.e., those using scales compatible with Ellenberg values) developed for other European regions. Our aim is to create a harmonized data set of Ellenberg-type indicator values applicable at the European scale. Methods: We collected European data sets of indicator values for vascular plants and selected 13 data sets that used the nine-, ten- or twelve-degree scales defined by Ellenberg for light, temperature, moisture, reaction, nutrients and salinity. We compared these values with the original Ellenberg values and used those that showed consistent trends in regression slope and coefficient of determination. We calculated the average value for each combination of species and indicator values from these data sets. Based on species’ co-occurrences in European vegetation plots, we also calculated new values for species that were not assigned an indicator value. Results: We provide a new data set of Ellenberg-type indicator values for 8908 European vascular plant species (8168 for light, 7400 for temperature, 8030 for moisture, 7282 for reaction, 7193 for nutrients, and 7507 for salinity), of which 398 species have been newly assigned to at least one indicator value. Conclusions: The newly introduced indicator values are compatible with the original Ellenberg values. They can be used for large-scale studies of the European flora and vegetation or for gap-filling in regional data sets. The European indicator values and the original and taxonomically harmonized regional data sets of Ellenberg-type indicator values are available in the Supporting Information and the Zenodo repository

Observation of the J/ψJ/\psi and ψ(3686)\psi(3686) decays into ηΣ+Σˉ−\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}^{-}

The decays $J/\psi\to\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}{}^-$ and $\psi(3686)\to\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}{}^-$ are observed for the first time, using $(10087 \pm 44)\times 10^{6}$ $J/\psi$ and $(448.1 \pm 2.9)\times 10^{6}$ $\psi(3686)$ events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider. We determine the branching fractions of these two decays to be ${\cal B}(J/\psi\to\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}{}^-)=(6.34 \pm 0.21 \pm 0.37)\times 10^{-5}$ and ${\cal B}(\psi(3686)\to\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}{}^-)=(9.59 \pm 2.37 \pm 0.61)\times 10^{-6}$, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second are systematic. The ratio of these two branching fractions is determined to be $\frac{{\cal B}(\psi(3686)\to\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}{}^-)}{{\cal B}(J/\psi\to\eta\Sigma^{+}\bar{\Sigma}{}^-)}=(15.1 \pm 3.8)\%$, which is in agreement with the "12\% rule."Comment: 9 pages and 10 figure

Study of the doubly Cabibbo-suppressed decays Ds+→K+K+π−D^+_s\to K^+K^+\pi^- and Ds+→K+K+π−π0D^+_s\to K^+K^+\pi^-\pi^0

Based on 7.33 fb$^{-1}$ of $e^+e^-$ collision data collected at center-of-mass energies between 4.128 and 4.226 GeV with the BESIII detector, the experimental studies of the doubly Cabibbo-suppressed decays $D^+_s\to K^+K^+\pi^-$ and $D^+_s\to K^+K^+\pi^-\pi^0$ are reported. We determine the absolute branching fraction of $D^+_s\to K^+K^+\pi^-$ to be (${1.23^{+0.28}_{-0.25}}({\rm stat})\pm0.06({\rm syst})$) $\times 10^{-4}$. No significant signal of $D^+_s\to K^+K^+\pi^-\pi^0$ is observed and the upper limit on its decay branching fraction at 90\% confidence level is set to be $1.7\times10^{-4}$.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 4 table

Measurement of the absolute branching fraction of the inclusive decay Ds+→π+π+π−XD_s^+\to \pi^+\pi^+\pi^- X

Using an $e^+ e^-$ collision data sample with a total integrated luminosity of $3.19$ fb$^{-1}$ collected with the BESIII detector at a center-of-mass energy of 4.178 GeV, the branching fraction of the inclusive decay of the $D_s^+$ meson to final states including at least three charged pions is measured for the first time to be ${\cal B}(D_s^+\to\pi^+ \pi^+ \pi^- X) = (32.81 \pm 0.35_{\rm stat} \pm {0.82_{\rm syst}})\%$. In this measurement the charged pions from $K_S^0$ meson decays are excluded. The partial branching fractions of $D_s^+\to\pi^+ \pi^+ \pi^- X$ are also measured as a function of the $\pi^+ \pi^+ \pi^-$ invariant mass.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Search for an axion-like particle in J/ψJ/\psi radiative decays

We search for an axion-like particle (ALP) $a$ through the process $\psi(3686)\rightarrow\pi^+\pi^-J/\psi$, $J/\psi\rightarrow\gamma a$, $a\rightarrow\gamma\gamma$ in a data sample with $(2708.1\pm14.5)\times10^6$ $\psi(3686)$ events collected by the BESIII detector. No significant ALP signal is observed over the expected background, and the upper limits on the branching fraction of the decay $J/\psi\rightarrow\gamma a$ and the ALP-photon coupling constant $g_{a\gamma\gamma}$ are set at the 95\% confidence level in the mass range of 0.165\leq m_a\leq2.84\,\mbox{GeV}/c^2. The limits on $\mathcal{B}(J/\psi\rightarrow\gamma a)$ range from $8.3\times10^{-8}$ to $1.8\times10^{-6}$ over the search region, and the constraints on the ALP-photon coupling are the most stringent to date for 0.165\leq m_a\leq1.468\,\mbox{GeV}/c^2.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Updated measurements of the M1 transition ψ(3686)→γηc(2S)\psi(3686) \to \gamma \eta_{c}(2S) with ηc(2S)→KKˉπ\eta_{c}(2S) \to K \bar{K} \pi

Based on a data sample of $(27.08 \pm 0.14 ) \times 10^8~\psi(3686)$ events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, the M1 transition $\psi(3686) \to \gamma \eta_{c}(2S)$ with $\eta_{c}(2S) \to K\bar{K}\pi$ is studied, where $K\bar{K}\pi$ is $K^{+} K^{-} \pi^{0}$ or $K_{S}^{0}K^{\pm}\pi^{\mp}$. The mass and width of the $\eta_{c}(2S)$ are measured to be $(3637.8 \pm 0.8 (\rm {stat}) \pm 0.2 (\rm {syst}))$ MeV/$c^{2}$ and $(10.5 \pm 1.7 (\rm {stat}) \pm 3.5 (\rm {syst}))$ MeV, respectively. The product branching fraction $\mathcal{B}\left(\psi(3686) \rightarrow \gamma \eta_{c}(2 S)\right) \times \mathcal{B}(\eta_{c}(2 S) \rightarrow K \bar{K} \pi)$ is determined to be $(0.97 \pm 0.06 (\rm {stat}) \pm 0.09 (\rm {syst})) \times 10^{-5}$. Using $\mathcal{BR}(\eta_{c}(2S)\to K\bar{K}\pi)=(1.86^{+0.68}_{-0.49})\%$, we obtain the branching fraction of the radiative transition to be $\mathcal{BR}(\psi(3686) \to \gamma \eta_{c}(2S)) = (5.2 \pm 0.3 (\rm {stat}) \pm 0.5 (\rm {syst}) ^{+1.9}_{-1.4} (extr)) \times 10^{-4}$, where the third uncertainty is due to the quoted $\mathcal{BR}(\eta_{c}(2S) \to K\bar{K}\pi)$

Measurement of the cross section of e+e−→Ξ−Ξˉ+e^+e^-\rightarrow\Xi^{-}\bar\Xi^{+} at center-of-mass energies between 3.510 and 4.843 GeV

Using $e^+e^-$ collision data corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 12.9 $fb^{-1}$ collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, the exclusive Born cross sections and the effective form factors of the reaction $e^+e^-\rightarrow\Xi^{-}\bar\Xi^{+}$ are measured via the single baryon-tag method at 23 center-of-mass energies between 3.510 and 4.843 GeV. Evidence for the decay $\psi(3770)\rightarrow\Xi^{-}\bar\Xi^{+}$ is observed with a significance of 4.5$\sigma$ by analyzing the measured cross sections together with earlier BESIII results. For the other charmonium(-like) states $\psi(4040)$, $\psi(4160)$, $Y(4230)$, $Y(4360)$, $\psi(4415)$, and $Y(4660)$, no significant signal of their decay to $\Xi^-\bar \Xi^+$ is found. For these states, upper limits of the products of the branching fraction and the electronic partial width at the 90% confidence level are provided.Comment: 18 pages, 10 pages, 4 table

First Observation of a Three-Resonance Structure in e+e−→e^+e^-\rightarrow{non-open} Charm Hadrons

We report the measurement of the cross sections for $e^+e^-$$\rightarrow${nOCH} (nOCH stands for non-open charm hadrons) with improved precision at center-of-mass energies from 3.645 to 3.871 GeV. We observe for the first time a three-resonance structure in the energy-dependent lineshape of the cross sections, which are $\mathcal R(3760)$, $\mathcal R(3780)$ and $\mathcal R(3810)$ with significances of $9.4\sigma$, $15.7\sigma$, and $9.8\sigma$, respectively. The $\mathcal R(3810)$ is observed for the first time. We found two solutions in analysis of the cross sections. For solution I [solution II], we measure the mass, the total width and the product of electronic width and nOCH decay branching fraction to be $(3805.8 \pm 1.1 \pm 2.7)$ [$(3805.8 \pm 1.1 \pm 2.7)$] MeV/$c^2$, $(11.6 \pm 2.6 \pm 1.9)$ [$(11.5 \pm 2.5 \pm 1.8)$] MeV, and $(10.8\pm 3.2\pm 2.3)$ [$(11.0\pm 2.9\pm 2.4)$] eV for the $\mathcal R(3810)$, respectively. In addition, we measure the branching fractions ${\mathcal B}({\mathcal R}(3760)$$\rightarrow${nOCH}$)=(24.5 \pm 13.4 \pm 27.4)\% [(6.8 \pm 5.4 \pm 7.6)\%]$ for the first time, and ${\mathcal B}(\mathcal R(3780)$$\rightarrow${nOCH}$)=(11.6 \pm 5.8 \pm 7.8)\% [(10.3 \pm 4.5 \pm 6.9)\%]$. Moreover, we determine the open-charm (OC) branching fraction ${\mathcal B}({\mathcal R}$$(3760)\rightarrow${OC}$)=(75.5 \pm 13.4 \pm 27.4)\% [(93.2 \pm 5.4 \pm 7.6)\%]$, which supports the interpretation of $\mathcal R(3760)$ as an OC pair molecular state, but contained a simple four-quark state component. The first uncertainties are from fits to the cross sections, and the second are systematic