A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States (US) associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections, global climate system parameters, natural variability and model structural uncertainty. The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework, which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Second, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that the range of annual mean temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to end-of-century precipitation changes, with natural variability dominating until 2050. For the set of scenarios used in this study, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty, defined as the range of warming and changes in precipitation, in future projections of climate change over the US

Virtual Compton Scattering off a Spinless Target in AdS/QCD

We study the doubly virtual Compton scattering off a spinless target $\gamma^*P\to\gamma^*P'$ within the Anti-de Sitter(AdS)/QCD formalism. We find that the general structure allowed by the Lorentz invariance and gauge invariance of the Compton amplitude is not easily reproduced with the standard recipes of the AdS/QCD correspondence. In the soft-photon regime, where the semi-classical approximation is supposed to apply best, we show that the measurements of the electric and magnetic polarizabilities of a target like the charged pion in real Compton scattering, can already serve as stringent tests.Comment: 21 pages, version to be published in JHEP

Winter wheat roots grow twice as deep as spring wheat roots, is this important for N uptake and N leaching losses?

Cropping systems comprising winter catch crops followed by spring wheat could reduce N leaching risks compared to traditional winter wheat systems in humid climates. We studied the soil mineral N (Ninorg) and root growth of winter- and spring wheat to 2.5 m depth during three years. Root depth of winter wheat (2.2 m) was twice that of spring wheat, and this was related to much lower amounts of Ninorg in the 1 to 2.5 m layer after winter wheat (81 kg Ninorg ha-1 less). When growing winter catch crops before spring wheat, N content in the 1 to 2.5 m layer after spring wheat was not different from that after winter wheat. The results suggest that by virtue of its deep rooting, winter wheat may not lead to high levels of leaching as it is often assumed in humid climates. Deep soil and root measurements (below 1 m) in this experiment were essential to answer the questions we posed

State Transfer Between a Mechanical Oscillator and Microwave Fields in the Quantum Regime

Recently, macroscopic mechanical oscillators have been coaxed into a regime of quantum behavior, by direct refrigeration [1] or a combination of refrigeration and laser-like cooling [2, 3]. This exciting result has encouraged notions that mechanical oscillators may perform useful functions in the processing of quantum information with superconducting circuits [1, 4-7], either by serving as a quantum memory for the ephemeral state of a microwave field or by providing a quantum interface between otherwise incompatible systems [8, 9]. As yet, the transfer of an itinerant state or propagating mode of a microwave field to and from a mechanical oscillator has not been demonstrated owing to the inability to agilely turn on and off the interaction between microwave electricity and mechanical motion. Here we demonstrate that the state of an itinerant microwave field can be coherently transferred into, stored in, and retrieved from a mechanical oscillator with amplitudes at the single quanta level. Crucially, the time to capture and to retrieve the microwave state is shorter than the quantum state lifetime of the mechanical oscillator. In this quantum regime, the mechanical oscillator can both store and transduce quantum information

Formulation and solution of a two-stage capacitated facility location problem with multilevel capacities

In this paper, the multi-product facility location problem in a two-stage supply chain is investigated. In this problem, the locations of depots (distribution centres) need to be determined along with their corresponding capacities. Moreover, the product flows from the plants to depots and onto customers must also be optimised. Here, plants have a production limit whereas potential depots have several possible capacity levels to choose from, which are defined as multilevel capacities. Plants must serve customer demands via depots. Two integer linear programming (ILP) models are introduced to solve the problem in order to minimise the fixed costs of opening depots and transportation costs. In the first model, the depot capacity is based on the maximum number of each product that can be stored whereas in the second one, the capacity is determined by the size (volume) of the depot. For large problems, the models are very difficult to solve using an exact method. Therefore, a matheuristic approach based on an aggregation approach and an exact method (ILP) is proposed in order to solve such problems. The methods are assessed using randomly generated data sets and existing data sets taken from the literature. The solutions obtained from the computational study confirm the effectiveness of the proposed matheuristic approach which outperforms the exact method. In addition, a case study arising from the wind energy sector in the UK is presented

Atmospheric emissions from the deepwater Horizon spill constrain air-water partitioning, hydrocarbon fate, and leak rate

The fate of deepwater releases of gas and oil mixtures is initially determined by solubility and volatility of individual hydrocarbon species; these attributes determine partitioning between air and water. Quantifying this partitioning is necessary to constrain simulations of gas and oil transport, to predict marine bioavailability of different fractions of the gas-oil mixture, and to develop a comprehensive picture of the fate of leaked hydrocarbons in the marine environment. Analysis of airborne atmospheric data shows massive amounts (∼258,000 kg/day) of hydrocarbons evaporating promptly from the Deepwater Horizon spill; these data collected during two research flights constrain air-water partitioning, thus bioavailability and fate, of the leaked fluid. This analysis quantifies the fraction of surfacing hydrocarbons that dissolves in the water column (∼33% by mass), the fraction that does not dissolve, and the fraction that evaporates promptly after surfacing (∼14% by mass). We do not quantify the leaked fraction lacking a surface expression; therefore, calculation of atmospheric mass fluxes provides a lower limit to the total hydrocarbon leak rate of 32,600 to 47,700 barrels of fluid per day, depending on reservoir fluid composition information. This study demonstrates a new approach for rapid-response airborne assessment of future oil spills. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

Skeletal trade-offs in coralline algae in response to ocean acidification

Ocean acidification is changing the marine environment, with potentially serious consequences for many organisms. Much of our understanding of ocean acidification effects comes from laboratory experiments, which demonstrate physiological responses over relatively short timescales. Observational studies and, more recently, experimental studies in natural systems suggest that ocean acidification will alter the structure of seaweed communities. Here, we provide a mechanistic understanding of altered competitive dynamics among a group of seaweeds, the crustose coralline algae (CCA). We compare CCA from historical experiments (1981-1997) with specimens from recent, identical experiments (2012) to describe morphological changes over this time period, which coincides with acidification of seawater in the Northeastern Pacific. Traditionally thick species decreased in thickness by a factor of 2.0-2.3, but did not experience a change in internal skeletal metrics. In contrast, traditionally thin species remained approximately the same thickness but reduced their total carbonate tissue by making thinner inter-filament cell walls. These changes represent alternative mechanisms for the reduction of calcium carbonate production in CCA and suggest energetic trade-offs related to the cost of building and maintaining a calcium carbonate skeleton as pH declines. Our classification of stress response by morphological type may be generalizable to CCA at other sites, as well as to other calcifying organisms with species-specific differences in morphological types

Three-dimension structure of ventricular myocardial fibers after myocardial infarction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To explore the pathological changes of three-dimension structure of ventricular myocardial fibers after anterior myocardial infarction in dog heart.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fourteen acute anterior myocardial infarction models were made from healthy dogs (mean weight 17.6 ± 2.5 kg). Six out of 14 dogs with old myocardial infarction were sacrificed, and their hearts were harvested after they survived the acute anterior myocardial infarction for 3 months. Each heart was dissected into ventricular myocardial band (VMB), morphological characters in infarction region were observed, and infarct size percents in descending segment and ascending segment were calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six dog hearts were successfully dissected into VMB. Uncorresponding damages in myocardial fibers of descending segment and ascending segment were found in apical circle in anterior wall infarction. Infarct size percent in the ascending segment was significantly larger than that in the descending segment (23.36 ± 3.15 (SD) vs 30.69 ± 2.40%, P = 0.0033); the long axis of infarction area was perpendicular to the orientation of myocardial fibers in ascending segment; however, the long axis of the infarction area was parallel with the orientation of myocardial fibers in descending segment.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We found that damages were different in both morphology and size in ascending segment and descending segment in heart with myocardial infarction. This may provide an important insight for us to understand the mechanism of heart failure following coronary artery diseases.</p