Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. METHODS: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. FINDINGS: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5–3·0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6·8% (5·8–8·0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15–49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3·8% (95% UI 3·2–4·3) of female deaths and 12·2% (10·8–13·6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15–49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2·3% (95% UI 2·0–2·6) and male attributable DALYs were 8·9% (7·8–9·9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1·4% [95% UI 1·0–1·7] of total deaths), road injuries (1·2% [0·7–1·9]), and self-harm (1·1% [0·6–1·5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27·1% (95% UI 21·2–33·3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18·9% (15·3–22·6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0–0·8) standard drinks per week. INTERPRETATION: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Analytical investigation of unsteady CuO nanofluid flow, heat and mass transfer between two parallel disks

281-286The heat transfer in the unsteady CuO nanofluid flow between two moving parallel disks has been investigated using analytical method called Galerkin Optimal Homotopy Asymptotic Method (GOHAM). The effect of Brownian motion on heat transfer enhancement has been shown. The analytical investigation is carried out for various governing parameters such as the squeeze parameter, Hartman number, Brownian motion and thermophoretic parameters. The results show that concentration is an increasing function of Brownian motion parameter while it is a decreasing function of the thermophoretic parameter.The comparison of obtained results with numerical solutions assures us about the validity and accuracy of the current study

Statistical optimization of microchannel heat sink (MCHS) geometry cooled by different nanofluids using RSM analysis

In this work, an analytical investigation of the heat transfer for the microchannel heat sink (MCHS) cooled by different nanofluids (Cu, Al2O3, Ag, TiO2 in water and ethylene glycol as base fluids) is studied by the porous media approach and the Galerkin method and results are compared with numerical procedure. Response surface methodology (RSM) is applied to obtain the desirability of the optimum design of the channel geometry. The effective thermal conductivity and viscosity of the nanofluid are calculated by the Patel et al. and Khanafer et al. model, respectively, and MCHS is considered as a porous medium, as proposed by Kim and Kim. In addition, to deal with nanofluid heat transfer, a model based on the Brownian motion of nanoparticles is used. The effects of the nanoparticles volume fraction, nanoparticle type and size, base fluid type, etc., on the temperature distribution, velocity and Nusselt number are considered. Results show that, by increasing the nanoparticles volume fraction, the Brownian movement of the particles, which carries the heat and distributes it to the surroundings, increases and, consequently, the difference between coolant and wall temperature becomes less