Category-based Tail Comovement

Traditional financial theory predicts that comovement in asset returns is due to fundamentals. An alternative view is that of Barberis and Shleifer (2003) and Bar- beris, Shleifer and Wurgler (2005) who propose a sentiment based theory of comovement, delinking it from fundamentals. In their paper they view comovement under the prism of the standard Pearson's correlation measure, implicitly excluding extreme market events, such as the latest financial crisis. Poon, Rockinger and Tawn (2004) have shown that under such events different types of comovement or dependence may co-exist, and make a clear distinction between the four types of dependence: perfect dependent, independent, asymptotically dependent and asymptotically independent. In this paper we extend the sentiment based theory of comovement so as to cover the whole spectrum of dependence, including extreme comovement such as the one that can be observed in financial crises. One of the key contributions of this paper is that it formally proves that assets belonging to the same category comove too much in the tail and reclassifying an asset into a new category raises its tail dependence with that category

Ambiguity aversion, company size and the pricing of earnings forecasts

Working paper dated November 2011. Final version published by Wiley; available online at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/Several authors have reported an unconditional size effect in returns around earnings announcements. In this study we show how this finding can be understood as resulting from ambiguity aversion. We hypothesize that analyst forecasts for smaller companies are relatively more ambiguous; hence they are priced pessimistically by ambiguity-averse investors. As the quarter comes to a close and ambiguity gradually subsides, the stock prices of smaller companies rise to correct this pessimism, creating the size effect. Our results support these hypotheses

Recent advances in lending to the poor with asymmetric information

International audienceMicrofinance institutions have successfully extended unsecured small loans to poor and opaque borrowers at the bottom of the economic pyramid. This success is largely due to innovative financial contracts that impose joint liability and create dynamic incentives to mitigate the effects of asymmetric information. Given recent advances in microfinance contracts, there is a need to map the theoretical developments. This paper aims to accomplish that, by performing a critical literature survey of microlending contracts, focusing on joint liability and dynamic incentives, bringing out some of the deficiencies of contract-theoretic propositions that cannot effectively account for the social mission of microfinance

Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: a panel VAR approach

This paper examines the determinants of CDS spreads and potential spillover effects for Eurozone countries during the recent financial crisis in the EU. We employ a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model which combines the advantages of traditional VAR modelling with those of a panel-data approach. In addition to variables that proxy for global and financial market spread determinants we also employ variables that proxy for behavioral determinants. We find that the determinants of CDS variance are neither uniform nor stable during different periods and different countries. For instance, as we move from 2008 to 2014 the impact of the slope of the term structure on CDS spread variance is increasing for peripheral countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, and decreasing for core countries such as Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria. Other findings indicate that investor sentiment was an important CDS spread determinant during the subprime crisis, along with other factors, while spillover effects run from larger peripheral economies such as Spain and Italy to core countries; spillover effects from Portugal, Greece, and Ireland are of minor importance

What should investors know about the stability of momentum investing and its riskiness? The case of the Australian Security Exchange

International audienceThis paper investigates Australian momentum strategies and their performance stability separately employing two samples a) the S&P/ASX 200 constituents and b) all market securities; for different time periods and market states. To avoid transaction intensive strategies, non-overlapping portfolios are employed. Results show that momentum performance is not sample specific and is positive in all cases, yet at varying magnitudes for different states and years. The profits are robust to univariate and multivariate risk considerations, seasonality (which is however present), and to different starting months

Recent evidence on the performance and riskiness of contrarian portfolios

International audienceThe paper assesses the most recent performance, persistence and riskiness of contrarian portfolios. Evidence from the major world and European market of France shows that such portfolios appear profitable on average, but their performance is not persistent from one holding period to the next; hence there exist inherent risks, especially for investors that remain in markets for up to two consecutive investment periods. These risks, as measured by the CAPM (traditional, and less traditional versions that are meant to capture timing) and the Fama-French model, are not systematic and they are not related to market timing. Overall, taking only long positions in normal markets and hedged positions following market shocks seems to be the most promising route for contrarians in France

Momentum investing over the past twenty years in France, its persistence and the effects of the financial crisis

International audienceThe paper investigates momentum investment strategies for the French Security Market during the most recent twenty years. The aims are to test whether such strategies perform persistently, i.e. they remain profitable today consistent with earlier literature, and if so, whether they are abnormal and if there has been an effect from the recent global financial crisis that has different characteristics compared to other crises in the sample. Sixteen trading strategies are investigated ranging from three to twelve months, and results show that momentum returns appear to be significant on a risk adjusted basis (both univariate and multivariate), and that momentum portfolios on average provide a good hedge for market risk. Nonetheless, considering the financial crisis, momentum profitability disappears or is even reversed (at which time it pays off to be a contrarian investor), showing a risk not captured by traditional asset pricing models

Mesdames et Messieurs, momentum performance is not so abnormal after all!

International audienceThis article provides evidence regarding the performance of momentum investment strategies that is consistent with the Neoclassical Theory. More specifically, while momentum investment returns appear orthogonal to systematic risk in the extant literature, this article illustrates that they are due to correlated changes of hedge portfolio systematic risk exposures with market conditions. Momentum portfolios are excellent market timers in both expanding and contracting markets. Their returns however are generally not abnormal when timing is considered in an augmented unconditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), while the standard version erroneously considers them to be so, possibly explaining why momentum studies have so far rejected the Neoclassical Theory