Grassland futures in Great Britain – Productivity assessment and scenarios for land use change opportunities

This is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).To optimise trade-offs provided by future changes in grassland use intensity, spatially and temporally explicit estimates of respective grassland productivities are required at the systems level. Here, we benchmark the potential national availability of grassland biomass, identify optimal strategies for its management, and investigate the relative importance of intensification over reversion (prioritising productivity versus environmental ecosystem services). Process-conservative meta-models for different grasslands were used to calculate the baseline dry matter yields (DMY; 1961–1990) at 1 km2 resolution for the whole UK. The effects of climate change, rising atmospheric [CO2] and technological progress on baseline DMYs were used to estimate future grassland productivities (up to 2050) for low and medium CO2 emission scenarios of UKCP09. UK benchmark productivities of 12.5, 8.7 and 2.8 t/ha on temporary, permanent and rough-grazing grassland, respectively, accounted for productivity gains by 2010. By 2050, productivities under medium emission scenario are predicted to increase to 15.5 and 9.8 t/ha on temporary and permanent grassland, respectively, but not on rough grassland. Based on surveyed grassland distributions for Great Britain in 2010 the annual availability of grassland biomass is likely to rise from 64 to 72 million tonnes by 2050. Assuming optimal N application could close existing productivity gaps of ca. 40% a range of management options could deliver additional 21 ∗ 106 tonnes of biomass available for bioenergy. Scenarios of changes in grassland use intensity demonstrated considerable scope for maintaining or further increasing grassland production and sparing some grassland for the provision of environmental ecosystem services.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Complexity of childhood sexual abuse: predictors of current post-traumatic stress disorder, mood disorders, substance use, and sexual risk behavior among adult men who have sex with men

Men who have sex with men (MSM) are the group most at risk for HIV and represent the majority of new infections in the United States. Rates of childhood sexual abuse (CSA) among MSM have been estimated as high as 46 %. CSA is associated with increased risk of HIV and greater likelihood of HIV sexual risk behavior. The purpose of this study was to identify the relationships between CSA complexity indicators and mental health, substance use, sexually transmitted infections, and HIV sexual risk among MSM. MSM with CSA histories (n = 162) who were screened for an HIV prevention efficacy trial completed comprehensive psychosocial assessments. Five indicators of complex CSA experiences were created: CSA by family member, CSA with penetration, CSA with physical injury, CSA with intense fear, and first CSA in adolescence. Adjusted regression models were used to identify relationships between CSA complexity and outcomes. Participants reporting CSA by family member were at 2.6 odds of current alcohol use disorder (OR 2.64: CI 1.24–5.63), two times higher odds of substance use disorder (OR 2.1: CI 1.02–2.36), and 2.7 times higher odds of reporting an STI in the past year (OR 2.7: CI 1.04–7.1). CSA with penetration was associated with increased likelihood of current PTSD (OR 3.17: CI 1.56–6.43), recent HIV sexual risk behavior (OR 2.7: CI 1.16–6.36), and a greater number of casual sexual partners (p = 0.02). Both CSA with Physical Injury (OR 4.05: CI 1.9–8.7) and CSA with Intense Fear (OR 5.16: CI 2.5–10.7) were related to increased odds for current PTSD. First CSA in adolescence was related to increased odds of major depressive disorder. These findings suggest that CSA, with one or more complexities, creates patterns of vulnerabilities for MSM, including post-traumatic stress disorder, substance use, and sexual risk taking, and suggests the need for detailed assessment of CSA and the development of integrated HIV prevention programs that address mental health and substance use comorbidities.This study was supported by a Grant from the NIMH (R01 MH095624) PI: O'Cleirigh; Author time (Safren) was supported, in part, by Grant 5K24MH094214. (R01 MH095624 - NIMH; 5K24MH094214)Accepted manuscrip

Elucidating the genetic basis of antioxidant status in lettuce (Lactuca sativa).

A diet rich in phytonutrients from fruit and vegetables has been acknowledged to afford protection against a range of human diseases, but many of the most popular vegetables are low in phytonutrients. Wild relatives of crops may contain allelic variation for genes determining the concentrations of these beneficial phytonutrients, and therefore understanding the genetic basis of this variation is important for breeding efforts to enhance nutritional quality. In this study, lettuce recombinant inbred lines, generated from a cross between wild and cultivated lettuce (Lactuca serriola and Lactuca sativa, respectively), were analysed for antioxidant (AO) potential and important phytonutrients including carotenoids, chlorophyll and phenolic compounds. When grown in two environments, 96 quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified for these nutritional traits: 4 for AO potential, 2 for carotenoid content, 3 for total chlorophyll content and 87 for individual phenolic compounds (two per compound on average). Most often, the L. serriola alleles conferred an increase in total AOs and metabolites. Candidate genes underlying these QTL were identified by BLASTn searches; in several cases, these had functions suggesting involvement in phytonutrient biosynthetic pathways. Analysis of a QTL on linkage group 3, which accounted for >30% of the variation in AO potential, revealed several candidate genes encoding multiple MYB transcription factors which regulate flavonoid biosynthesis and flavanone 3-hydroxylase, an enzyme involved in the biosynthesis of the flavonoids quercetin and kaempferol, which are known to have powerful AO activity. Follow-up quantitative RT-PCR of these candidates revealed that 5 out of 10 genes investigated were significantly differentially expressed between the wild and cultivated parents, providing further evidence of their potential involvement in determining the contrasting phenotypes. These results offer exciting opportunities to improve the nutritional content and health benefits of lettuce through marker-assisted breeding

Moving forward in circles: challenges and opportunities in modelling population cycles

Population cycling is a widespread phenomenon, observed across a multitude of taxa in both laboratory and natural conditions. Historically, the theory associated with population cycles was tightly linked to pairwise consumer–resource interactions and studied via deterministic models, but current empirical and theoretical research reveals a much richer basis for ecological cycles. Stochasticity and seasonality can modulate or create cyclic behaviour in non-intuitive ways, the high-dimensionality in ecological systems can profoundly influence cycling, and so can demographic structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics. An inclusive theory for population cycles, ranging from ecosystem-level to demographic modelling, grounded in observational or experimental data, is therefore necessary to better understand observed cyclical patterns. In turn, by gaining better insight into the drivers of population cycles, we can begin to understand the causes of cycle gain and loss, how biodiversity interacts with population cycling, and how to effectively manage wildly fluctuating populations, all of which are growing domains of ecological research

Global impacts of energy demand on the freshwater resources of nations

The growing geographic disconnect between consumption of goods, the extraction and processing of resources, and the environmental impacts associated with production activities makes it crucial to factor global trade into sustainability assessments. Using an empirically validated environmentally extended global trade model, we examine the relationship between two key resources underpinning economies and human well-being—energy and freshwater. A comparison of three energy sectors (petroleum, gas, and electricity) reveals that freshwater consumption associated with gas and electricity production is largely confined within the territorial boundaries where demand originates. This finding contrasts with petroleum, which exhibits a varying ratio of territorial to international freshwater consumption, depending on the origin of demand. For example, although the United States and China have similar demand associated with the petroleum sector, international freshwater consumption is three times higher for the former than the latter. Based on mapping patterns of freshwater consumption associated with energy sectors at subnational scales, our analysis also reveals concordance between pressure on freshwater resources associated with energy production and freshwater scarcity in a number of river basins globally. These energy-driven pressures on freshwater resources in areas distant from the origin of energy demand complicate the design of policy to ensure security of fresh water and energy supply. Although much of the debate around energy is focused on greenhouse gas emissions, our findings highlight the need to consider the full range of consequences of energy production when designing policy

Simulation of greenhouse gases following land-use change to bioenergy crops using the ECOSSE model : a comparison between site measurements and model predictions

This work contributes to the ELUM (Ecosystem Land Use Modelling & Soil Carbon GHG Flux Trial) project, which was commissioned and funded by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI). We acknowledge the E-OBS data set from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Receiving the initial Down syndrome diagnosis: a comparison of prenatal and postnatal parent group experiences

This study explored the preliminary experiences of parents upon learning of their child's diagnosis of Down syndrome. Qualitative data from a web-based, national survey were analyzed based on two groups: prenatal (n  =  46) or postnatal (n  =  115) diagnosis. Three primary categories emerged from the data analysis: prenatal screening/testing decisions by parents, the adjustment process for parents, and postdiagnosis resources and support for parents. Participants' rationale behind pursuing testing ranged from wanting to be better prepared to not pursuing testing because it was not a factor in continuing the pregnancy. Participant reactions to the diagnosis involved a range of intense preliminary emotions; participants described their extreme grief and loss experience at the initial news of the diagnosis, which also was ambiguous in nature and required differing timelines of adjustment. Finally, participants described experiences with medical professionals, information/education, and faith/religion as resources and areas of support, although not all were described as positive in nature. Participants in both groups identified having negative experiences with medical professionals during the diagnosis process. The results indicated the importance of these early experiences for parents of children with Down syndrome and emphasize providing effective education, resources, and practical information from reliable sources

An analysis of a class of telecommunications models

In this short note we outline a general method for characterizing the ergodicity and computing performance measures for a large class of telecommunications models. We also point out errors that have appeared in the literature when using the transform method to analyze such models.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/31202/1/0000104.pd