Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Nut production in Bertholletia excelsa across a logged forest mosaic: implications for multiple forest use

Although many examples of multiple-use forest management may be found in tropical smallholder systems, few studies provide empirical support for the integration of selective timber harvesting with non-timber forest product (NTFP) extraction. Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa, Lecythidaceae) is one of the world’s most economically-important NTFP species extracted almost entirely from natural forests across the Amazon Basin. An obligate out-crosser, Brazil nut flowers are pollinated by large-bodied bees, a process resulting in a hard round fruit that takes up to 14 months to mature. As many smallholders turn to the financial security provided by timber, Brazil nut fruits are increasingly being harvested in logged forests. We tested the influence of tree and stand-level covariates (distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity) on total nut production at the individual tree level in five recently logged Brazil nut concessions covering about 4000 ha of forest in Madre de Dios, Peru. Our field team accompanied Brazil nut harvesters during the traditional harvest period (January-April 2012 and January-April 2013) in order to collect data on fruit production. Three hundred and ninety-nine (approximately 80%) of the 499 trees included in this study were at least 100 m from the nearest cut stump, suggesting that concessionaires avoid logging near adult Brazil nut trees. Yet even for those trees on the edge of logging gaps, distance to nearest cut stump and local logging intensity did not have a statistically significant influence on Brazil nut production at the applied logging intensities (typically 1–2 timber trees removed per ha). In one concession where at least 4 trees ha-1 were removed, however, the logging intensity covariate resulted in a marginally significant (0.09) P value, highlighting a potential risk for a drop in nut production at higher intensities. While we do not suggest that logging activities should be completely avoided in Brazil nut rich forests, when a buffer zone cannot be observed, low logging intensities should be implemented. The sustainability of this integrated management system will ultimately depend on a complex series of socioeconomic and ecological interactions. Yet we submit that our study provides an important initial step in understanding the compatibility of timber harvesting with a high value NTFP, potentially allowing for diversification of forest use strategies in Amazonian Perù

Development of forest structure and leaf area in secondary forests regenerating on abandoned pastures in Central Amazonia

The area of secondary forest (SF) regenerating from pastures is increasing in the Amazon basin; however, the return of forest and canopy structure following abandonment is not well understood. This study examined the development of leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover, aboveground biomass, stem density, diameter at breast height (DBH), and basal area ( BA) by growth form and diameter class for 10 SFs regenerating from abandoned pastures. Biomass accrual was tree dominated, constituting >= 94% of the total measured biomass in all forests abandoned >= 4 to 6 yr. Vine biomass increased with forest age, but its relative contribution to total biomass decreased with time. The forests were dominated by the tree Vismia spp. (> 50%). Tree stem density peaked after 6 to 8 yr ( 10 320 stems per hectare) before declining by 42% in the 12- to 14-yr-old SFs. Small-diameter tree stems in the 1-5-cm size class composed > 58% of the total stems for all forests. After 12 to 14 yr, there was no significant leaf area below 150-cm height. Leaf area return (LAI = 3.2 after 12 to 14 yr) relative to biomass was slower than literature-reported recovery following slash-and-burn, where LAI can reach primary forest levels ( LAI = 4 - 6) in 5 yr. After 12 to 14 yr, the colonizing vegetation returned some components of forest structure to values reported for primary forest. Basal area and LAI were 50% - 60%, canopy cover and stem density were nearly 100%, and the rapid tree-dominated biomass accrual was 25% - 50% of values reported for primary forest. Biomass accumulation may reach an asymptote earlier than expected because of even-aged, monospecific, untiered stand structure. The very slow leaf area accumulation relative to biomass and to reported values for recovery following slash-and-burn indicates a different canopy development pathway that warrants further investigation of causes ( e. g., nutrient limitations, competition) and effects on processes such as evapotranspiration and soil water uptake, which would influence long-term recovery rates and have regional implications

Achieving global biodiversity goals by 2050 requires urgent and integrated actions

Governments are negotiating actions intended to halt biodiversity loss and put it on a path to recovery by 2050. Here, we show that bending the curve for biodiversity is possible, but only if actions are implemented urgently and in an integrated manner. Connecting these actions to biodiversity outcomes and tracking progress remain a challenge

Patterns of Loss and Regeneration of Tropical Dry Forest in Madagascar: The Social Institutional Context

Loss of tropical forests and changes in land-use/land-cover are of growing concern worldwide. Although knowledge exists about the institutional context in which tropical forest loss is embedded, little is known about the role of social institutions in influencing regeneration of tropical forests. In the present study we used Landsat images from southern Madagascar from three different years (1984, 1993 and 2000) and covering 5500 km(2), and made a time-series analysis of three distinct large-scale patterns: 1) loss of forest cover, 2) increased forest cover, and 3) stable forest cover. Institutional characteristics underlying these three patterns were analyzed, testing the hypothesis that forest cover change is a function of strength and enforcement of local social institutions. The results showed a minor decrease of 7% total forest cover in the study area during the whole period 1984–2000, but an overall net increase of 4% during the period 1993–2000. The highest loss of forest cover occurred in a low human population density area with long distances to markets, while a stable forest cover occurred in the area with highest population density and good market access. Analyses of institutions revealed that loss of forest cover occurred mainly in areas characterized by insecure property rights, while areas with well-defined property rights showed either regenerating or stable forest cover. The results thus corroborate our hypothesis. The large-scale spontaneous regeneration dominated by native endemic species appears to be a result of a combination of changes in precipitation, migration and decreased human population and livestock grazing pressure, but under conditions of maintained and well-defined property rights. Our study emphasizes the large capacity of a semi-arid system to spontaneously regenerate, triggered by decreased pressures, but where existing social institutions mitigate other drivers of deforestation and alternative land-use

2D-DIGE as a strategy to identify serum biomarkers in Mexican patients with Type-2 diabetes with different body mass index

"Obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are the most prevalent and serious metabolic diseases affecting people worldwide. However racial and ethnic disparities seems to be a risk factor for their development. Mexico has been named as one of the largest populations with the highest prevalence of diabetes and obesity. The aim of this study was to identify novel T2D-associated proteins in Mexican patients. Blood samples were collected from 62 Mexican patients with T2D and they were grouped according to their body mass index (BMI). A panel of 10 diabetes and obesity serum markers was determined using MAGPIX. A comparative proteomics study was performed using two-dimensional difference in-gel electrophoresis (2D-DIGE) followed by mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). We detected 113 spots differentially accumulated, in which 64 unique proteins were identified, proteins that were involved in metabolism pathways, molecular transport, and cellular signalling. Four proteins (14-3-3, ApoH, ZAG, and OTO3) showing diabetes-related variation and also changes in relation to obesity were selected for further validation by western blotting. Our results reveal new diabetes related proteins present in the Mexican population. These could provide additional insight into the understanding of diabetes development in Mexican population and may also be useful candidate biomarkers.