Ensemble Sales Forecasting Study in Semiconductor Industry

Sales forecasting plays a prominent role in business planning and business strategy. The value and importance of advance information is a cornerstone of planning activity, and a well-set forecast goal can guide sale-force more efficiently. In this paper CPU sales forecasting of Intel Corporation, a multinational semiconductor industry, was considered. Past sale, future booking, exchange rates, Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasting, seasonality and other indicators were innovatively incorporated into the quantitative modeling. Benefit from the recent advances in computation power and software development, millions of models built upon multiple regressions, time series analysis, random forest and boosting tree were executed in parallel. The models with smaller validation errors were selected to form the ensemble model. To better capture the distinct characteristics, forecasting models were implemented at lead time and lines of business level. The moving windows validation process automatically selected the models which closely represent current market condition. The weekly cadence forecasting schema allowed the model to response effectively to market fluctuation. Generic variable importance analysis was also developed to increase the model interpretability. Rather than assuming fixed distribution, this non-parametric permutation variable importance analysis provided a general framework across methods to evaluate the variable importance. This variable importance framework can further extend to classification problem by modifying the mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) into misclassify error. Please find the demo code at : https://github.com/qx0731/ensemble_forecast_methodsComment: 14 pages, Industrial Conference on Data Mining 2017 (ICDM 2017

Phase transition curves for mesoscopic superconducting samples

We compute the phase transition curves for mesoscopic superconductors. Special emphasis is given to the limiting shape of the curve when the magnetic flux is large. We derive an asymptotic formula for the ground state of the Schr\"odinger equation in the presence of large applied flux. The expansion is shown to be sensitive to the smoothness of the domain. The theoretical results are compared to recent experiments.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figur

Dilation of the Giant Vortex State in a Mesoscopic Superconducting Loop

We have experimentally investigated the magnetisation of a mesoscopic aluminum loop at temperatures well below the superconducting transition temperature $T_{c}$. The flux quantisation of the superconducting loop was investigated with a $\mu$-Hall magnetometer in magnetic field intensities between $\pm 100 {Gauss}$. The magnetic field intensity periodicity observed in the magnetization measurements is expected to take integer values of the superconducting flux quanta $\Phi_{0}=h/2e$. A closer inspection of the periodicity, however, reveal a sub flux quantum shift. This fine structure we interpret as a consequence of a so called giant vortex state nucleating towards either the inner or the outer side of the loop. These findings are in agreement with recent theoretical reports.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Recombination at Long Mutant Telomeres Produces Tiny Single- and Double-Stranded Telomeric Circles

Recombinational telomere elongation (RTE) known as alternate lengthening of telomeres is the mechanism of telomere maintenance in up to 5 to 10% of human cancers. The telomeres of yeast mutants lacking telomerase can also be maintained by recombination. Previously, we proposed the roll-and-spread model to explain this elongation in the yeast Kluveromyces lactis. This model suggests that a very small (∼100-bp) circular molecule of telomeric DNA is copied by a rolling circle event to generate a single long telomere. The sequence of this primary elongated telomere is then spread by recombination to all remaining telomeres. Here we show by two-dimensional gel analysis and electron microscopy that small circles of single- and double-stranded telomeric DNA are commonly made by recombination in a K. lactis mutant with long telomeres. These circles were found to be especially abundant between 100 and 400 bp (or nucleotides). Interestingly, the single-stranded circles consist of only the G-rich telomeric strand sequence. To our knowledge this is the first report of single-stranded telomeric circles as a product of telomere dysfunction. We propose that the small telomeric circles form through the resolution of an intratelomeric strand invasion which resembles a t-loop. Our data reported here demonstrate that K. lactis can, in at least some circumstances, make telomeric circles of the very small sizes predicted by the roll-and-spread model. The very small circles seen here are both predicted products of telomere rapid deletion, a process observed in both human and yeast cells, and predicted templates for roll-and-spread RTE

In and around: identifying predictors of theft within and near to major mass underground transit systems

This article identifies factors that encourage or reduce pick-pocketing at underground rail stations through a case study analysis of the London Underground. Negative binomial Poisson regression models found predictor variables of pick-pocketing selected from the internal characteristics of stations and features of their nearby surroundings. Factors that increased risk were those associated with greater congestion inside stations including lifts, waiting rooms and fewer platforms; and increased levels of accessibility near stations, more paths and roads. Features that reduced risk were those likely to encourage detection and guardianship; stations with more personal validators, staffing levels and shop rentals; and the presence of more domestic buildings nearby. Station type was also influential; those that were ‘attractors’ of crime and those frequently used by tourists were at greater risk. The findings suggest a transmission of theft risk between the internal settings of underground stations and their nearby surroundings

Flux-Induced Vortex in Mesoscopic Superconducting Loops

We predict the existence of a quantum vortex for an unusual situation. We study the order parameter in doubly connected superconducting samples embedded in a uniform magnetic field. For samples with perfect cylindrical symmetry, the order parameter has been known for long and no vortices are present in the linear regime. However, if the sample is not symmetric, there exist ranges of the field for which the order parameter vanishes along a line, parallel to the field. In many respects, the behavior of this line is qualitatively different from that of the vortices encountered in type II superconductivity. For samples with mirror symmetry, this flux-induced vortex appears at the thin side for small fluxes and at the opposite side for large fluxes. We propose direct and indirect experimental methods which could test our predictions.Comment: 6 pages, Latex, 4 figs., uses RevTex, extended to situations far from cylindrical symmetr