Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

People of the British Isles: preliminary analysis of genotypes and surnames in a UK control population

There is a great deal of interest in fine scale population structure in the UK, both as a signature of historical immigration events and because of the effect population structure may have on disease association studies. Although population structure appears to have a minor impact on the current generation of genome-wide association studies, it is likely to play a significant part in the next generation of studies designed to search for rare variants. A powerful way of detecting such structure is to control and document carefully the provenance of the samples involved. Here we describe the collection of a cohort of rural UK samples (The People of the British Isles), aimed at providing a well-characterised UK control population that can be used as a resource by the research community as well as providing fine scale genetic information on the British population. So far, some 4,000 samples have been collected, the majority of which fit the criteria of coming from a rural area and having all four grandparents from approximately the same area. Analysis of the first 3,865 samples that have been geocoded indicates that 75% have a mean distance between grandparental places of birth of 37.3km, and that about 70% of grandparental places of birth can be classed as rural. Preliminary genotyping of 1,057 samples demonstrates the value of these samples for investigating fine scale population structure within the UK, and shows how this can be enhanced by the use of surnames

Multi-level evidence of an allelic hierarchy of USH2A variants in hearing, auditory processing and speech/language outcomes.

Language development builds upon a complex network of interacting subservient systems. It therefore follows that variations in, and subclinical disruptions of, these systems may have secondary effects on emergent language. In this paper, we consider the relationship between genetic variants, hearing, auditory processing and language development. We employ whole genome sequencing in a discovery family to target association and gene x environment interaction analyses in two large population cohorts; the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and UK10K. These investigations indicate that USH2A variants are associated with altered low-frequency sound perception which, in turn, increases the risk of developmental language disorder. We further show that Ush2a heterozygote mice have low-level hearing impairments, persistent higher-order acoustic processing deficits and altered vocalizations. These findings provide new insights into the complexity of genetic mechanisms serving language development and disorders and the relationships between developmental auditory and neural systems

Early star-forming galaxies and the reionization of the Universe

Star forming galaxies represent a valuable tracer of cosmic history. Recent observational progress with Hubble Space Telescope has led to the discovery and study of the earliest-known galaxies corresponding to a period when the Universe was only ~800 million years old. Intense ultraviolet radiation from these early galaxies probably induced a major event in cosmic history: the reionization of intergalactic hydrogen. New techniques are being developed to understand the properties of these most distant galaxies and determine their influence on the evolution of the universe.Comment: Review article appearing in Nature. This posting reflects a submitted version of the review formatted by the authors, in accordance with Nature publication policies. For the official, published version of the review, please see http://www.nature.com/nature/archive/index.htm

Novel role for the innate immune receptor toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) in the regulation of the wnt signaling pathway and photoreceptor apoptosis

Recent evidence has implicated innate immunity in regulating neuronal survival in the brain during stroke and other neurodegenerations. Photoreceptors are specialized light-detecting neurons in the retina that are essential for vision. In this study, we investigated the role of the innate immunity receptor TLR4 in photoreceptors. TLR4 activation by lipopolysaccharide (LPS) significantly reduced the survival of cultured mouse photoreceptors exposed to oxidative stress. With respect to mechanism, TLR4 suppressed Wnt signaling, decreased phosphorylation and activation of the Wnt receptor LRP6, and blocked the protective effect of the Wnt3a ligand. Paradoxically, TLR4 activation prior to oxidative injury protected photoreceptors, in a phenomenon known as preconditioning. Expression of TNFα and its receptors TNFR1 and TNFR2 decreased during preconditioning, and preconditioning was mimicked by TNFα antagonists, but was independent of Wnt signaling. Therefore, TLR4 is a novel regulator of photoreceptor survival that acts through the Wnt and TNFα pathways. © 2012 Yi et al

Star forming dwarf galaxies

Star forming dwarf galaxies (SFDGs) have a high gas content and low metallicities, reminiscent of the basic entities in hierarchical galaxy formation scenarios. In the young universe they probably also played a major role in the cosmic reionization. Their abundant presence in the local volume and their youthful character make them ideal objects for detailed studies of the initial stellar mass function (IMF), fundamental star formation processes and its feedback to the interstellar medium. Occasionally we witness SFDGs involved in extreme starbursts, giving rise to strongly elevated production of super star clusters and global superwinds, mechanisms yet to be explored in more detail. SFDGs is the initial state of all dwarf galaxies and the relation to the environment provides us with a key to how different types of dwarf galaxies are emerging. In this review we will put the emphasis on the exotic starburst phase, as it seems less important for present day galaxy evolution but perhaps fundamental in the initial phase of galaxy formation.Comment: To appear in JENAM Symposium "Dwarf Galaxies: Keys to Galaxy Formation and Evolution", P. Papaderos, G. Hensler, S. Recchi (eds.). Lisbon, September 2010, Springer Verlag, in pres

Extragalactic Results from the Infrared Space Observatory

More than a decade ago the IRAS satellite opened the realm of external galaxies for studies in the 10 to 100 micron band and discovered emission from tens of thousands of normal and active galaxies. With the 1995-1998 mission of the Infrared Space Observatory the next major steps in extragalactic infrared astronomy became possible: detailed imaging, spectroscopy and spectro-photometry of many galaxies detected by IRAS, as well as deep surveys in the mid- and far- IR. The spectroscopic data reveal a wealth of detail about the nature of the energy source(s) and about the physical conditions in galaxies. ISO's surveys for the first time explore the infrared emission of distant, high-redshift galaxies. ISO's main theme in extragalactic astronomy is the role of star formation in the activity and evolution of galaxies.Comment: 106 pages, including 17 figures. Ann.Rev.Astron.Astrophys. (in press), a gzip'd pdf file (667kB) is also available at http://www.mpe.mpg.de/www_ir/preprint/annrev2000.pdf.g

Anti-inflammatory and Immune-regulatory Effects of Subcutaneous Perillae Fructus Extract Injections on OVA-induced Asthma in Mice

Perillae fructus (perilla seed) is a traditional medicinal herb used to treat bronchial asthma in Oriental medical clinics. ST36 is one of the most widely used acupuncture points, particularly for immune system regulation. Injection of an herbal extract into an acupuncture point (herbal acupuncture) is a therapeutic technique combining both acupuncture and herbal treatment. Perillae fructus extract was injected subcutaneously (Perillae fructus herbal acupuncture; PF-HA) at acupoint ST36 of OVA-induced asthmatic mice. The lung weight, bronchoalveolar fluid (BALF) cell count, the number of CCR3+, CD11b+, CD4+ and CD3e+/CD69+ cells in the lung, and the level of IgE, IL-4, IL-5 and IL-13 in BALF and serum were then measured. RT-PCR was used to measure the mRNA expression of IL-4, IL-5, IL-13 and TNF-α in the lung. Lung sections were analyzed histologically. PF-HA significantly reduced lung weight, the number of inflammatory cells in the lung and BALF, the levels of IgE and Th2 cytokines in BALF and serum, mRNA expression of Th2 cytokines in the lung, and pathological changes in lung tissue. Our results suggest that PF-HA may have an anti-inflammatory and immune-regulatory effect on bronchial allergic asthma by restoring the Th1/Th2 imbalance in the immune system and suppressing eosinophilic inflammation in airways