Narrowing the Range of Future Climate Projections Using Historical Observations of Atmospheric CO2

This is the final version. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordUncertainty in the behavior of the carbon cycle is important in driving the range in future projected climate change. Previous comparisons of model responses with historical CO2 observations have suggested a strong constraint on simulated projections that could narrow the range considered plausible. This study uses a new 57-member perturbed parameter ensemble of variants of an Earth system model for three future scenarios, which 1) explores a wider range of potential climate responses than before and 2) includes the impact of past uncertainty in carbon emissions on simulated trends. These two factors represent a more complete exploration of uncertainty, although they lead to a weaker constraint on the range of future CO2 concentrations as compared to earlier studies. Nevertheless, CO2 observations are shown to be effective at narrowing the distribution, excluding 30 of 57 simulations as inconsistent with historical CO2 changes. The perturbed model variants excluded are mainly at the high end of the future projected CO2 changes, with only 8 of the 26 variants projecting RCP8.5 2100 concentrations in excess of 1100 ppm retained. Interestingly, a minority of the high-end variants were able to capture historical CO2 trends, with the large-magnitude response emerging later in the century (owing to high climate sensitivities, strong carbon feedbacks, or both). Comparison with observed CO2 is effective at narrowing both the range and distribution of projections out to the mid-twenty-first century for all scenarios and to 2100 for a scenario with low emissions.This work was supported by the Joint U.K. DECC/DEFRA Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). Chris Jones’s contribution was supported by the CRESCENDO project under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Grant Agreement 641816. Jo House was supported by a Leverhulme Early Career Fellowship and EU FP7 Project LUC4C (603542). Stephen Sitch was supported by the EU FP7 through Project LUC4C (GA603542)

Investigating the emission characteristics of single crystal YAG when activated by high power laser beams

© The Author(s) 2016. Limitations associated with light emitting diodes (LEDs) operating under high current densities due to the efficiency droop has created a need to look for alternative light sources; here we report investigations on the potential of laser diodes (LDs) for high brightness lighting solutions. High power laser diodes require phosphor targets with certain performance criteria such as high thermal conductivity, efficiency and structural geometry. Here we examine the possibility of using single crystal YAG:Ce phosphor materials as potential targets for generation of light via laser diodes. We report on the emission properties of the crystals with different sizes and examine the effect of laser beam incident angle incident on crystal target emission

Insights into the unique characteristics of hepatitis C virus genotype 3 revealed by development of a robust sub-genomic DBN3a replicon

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important human pathogen causing 400 000 chronic liver disease-related deaths annually. Until recently, the majority of laboratory-based investigations into the biology of HCV have focused on the genotype 2 isolate, JFH-1, involving replicons and infectious cell culture systems. However, genotype 2 is one of eight major genotypes of HCV and there is great sequence variation among these genotypes (>30 % nucleotide divergence). In this regard, genotype 3 is the second most common genotype and accounts for 30 % of global HCV cases. Further, genotype 3 is associated with both high levels of inherent resistance to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy, and a more rapid progression to chronic liver diseases. Neither of these two attributes are fully understood, thus robust genotype 3 culture systems to unravel viral replication are required. Here we describe the generation of robust genotype 3 sub-genomic replicons (SGRs) based on the adapted HCV NS3-NS5B replicase from the DBN3a cell culture infectious clone. Such infectious cell culture-adaptive mutations could potentially promote the development of robust SGRs for other HCV strains and genotypes. The novel genotype 3 SGRs have been used both transiently and to establish stable SGR-harbouring cell lines. We show that these resources can be used to investigate aspects of genotype 3 biology, including NS5A function and DAA resistance. They will be useful tools for these studies, circumventing the need to work under the biosafety level 3 (BSL3) containment required in many countries

Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from The Royal Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0028Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth

Ultraviolet and blue cathodoluminescence from cubic Y2O3 and Y2O3: Eu3+ generated in a transmission electron microscope

Herein we describe the investigation of transmission electron microscopeof non-doped Y2O3 and Y2O3 doped with Eu3+ in a transmission electron microscope (TEM) equipped with a spectrometer to detect cathodoluminescence from individual particles. Each submicron particle was made up of nanometre sized crystals. We found that these crystals showed a broad emission band at 353 nm upon bombardment with 200 keV or 80 keV electrons. Upon increasing the Eu3+ concentration from 0 to 2 mol% this UV/blue emission was gradually quenched: at Eu3+ concentrations >2 mol% no UV/blue emission was detected, only the well-known cathodoluminescence (CL) spectrum of Y2O3:Eu3+ could be recorded. This UV/blue emission has been attributed to the intrinsic luminescence of Y2O3 caused by self-trapped excitons. We found that the UV/blue luminescence was strongly temperature dependent and that the trap depth of the self-trapped excitons was 0.14 eV. The ratios of the spectral radiances of 5D1 → 7FJ and 5D0 → 7FJ (J = 0, 1...6) Eu3+ transitions in the CL-TEM spectra of Y2O3:Eu3+ at low Eu3+ concentrations was about a factor of 10 larger than those recorded at 15 keV. This phenomenon has been explained by absorption of the intrinsic luminescence of Y2O3 by Eu3+.The EPSRC and the Technology Strategy Board (TSB) funded the PURPOSE (TP11/MFE/6/I/AA129F; EPSRC TS/G000271/1), CONVERTED (JeS no. TS/1003053/1) and PRISM (EP/N508974/1) programs. The TSB for funding the CONVERT program.We are grateful to the EPSRC and the Technology Strategy Board (TSB) for funding the PURPOSE (TP11/MFE/6/I/AA129F; EPSRC TS/G000271/1), CONVERTED (JeS no. TS/1003053/1) and PRISM (EP/N508974/1) programs. We are also grateful to the TSB for funding the CONVERT program

A novel substitution in NS5A enhances the resistance of hepatitis C virus genotype 3 to daclatasvir

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 3 presents a high level of both baseline and acquired resistance to direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), particularly those targeting the NS5A protein. To understand this resistance we studied a cohort of Brazilian patients treated with the NS5A DAA, daclatasvir and the nucleoside analogue, sofosbuvir. We observed a novel substitution at NS5A amino acid residue 98 [serine to glycine (S98G)] in patients who relapsed post-treatment. The effect of this substitution on both replication fitness and resistance to DAAs was evaluated using two genotype 3 subgenomic replicons. S98G had a modest effect on replication, but in combination with the previously characterized resistance-associated substitution (RAS), Y93H, resulted in a significant increase in daclatasvir resistance. This result suggests that combinations of substitutions may drive a high level of DAA resistance and provide some clues to the mechanism of action of the NS5A-targeting DAAs

New Developments in Cathodoluminescence Spectroscopy for the Study of Luminescent Materials

© 2017 by the authors. Herein, we describe three advanced techniques for cathodoluminescence (CL) spectroscopy that have recently been developed in our laboratories. The first is a new method to accurately determine the CL-efficiency of thin layers of phosphor powders. When a wide band phosphor with a band gap (Eg > 5 eV) is bombarded with electrons, charging of the phosphor particles will occur, which eventually leads to erroneous results in the determination of the luminous efficacy. To overcome this problem of charging, a comparison method has been developed, which enables accurate measurement of the current density of the electron beam. The study of CL from phosphor specimens in a scanning electron microscope (SEM) is the second subject to be treated. A detailed description of a measuring method to determine the overall decay time of single phosphor crystals in a SEM without beam blanking is presented. The third technique is based on the unique combination of microscopy and spectrometry in the transmission electron microscope (TEM) of Brunel University London (UK). This combination enables the recording of CL-spectra of nanometre-sized specimens and determining spatial variations in CL emission across individual particles by superimposing the scanning TEM and CL-images.We are grateful to the EPSRC and Technology Strategy Board (TSB) for funding the PURPOSE (TP11/MFE/6/1/AA129F; EP-SRC TS/G000271/1) and CONVERTED (JeS No. TS/1003053/1), PRISM (EP/N508974/1) and FAB3D programs. We are finally grateful to the TSB for funding the CONVERT program

Sex-Specific Differences in Shoaling Affect Parasite Transmission in Guppies

Background: Individuals have to trade-off the costs and benefits of group membership during shoaling behaviour. Shoaling can increase the risk of parasite transmission, but this cost has rarely been quantified experimentally. Guppies (Poecilia reticulata) are a model system for behavioural studies, and they are commonly infected by gyrodactylid parasites, notorious fish pathogens that are directly transmitted between guppy hosts. Methodology/Principal Findings:Parasite transmission in single sex shoals of male and female guppies were observed using an experimental infection of Gyrodactylus turnbulli. Parasite transmission was affected by sex-specific differences in host behaviour, and significantly more parasites were transmitted when fish had more frequent and more prolonged contact with each other. Females shoaled significantly more than males and had a four times higher risk to contract an infection. Conclusions/Significance: Intersexual differences in host behaviours such as shoaling are driven by differences in natural and sexual selection experienced by both sexes. Here we show that the potential benefits of an increased shoaling tendency are traded off against increased risks of contracting an infectious parasite in a group-living species