Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Fifteen new risk loci for coronary artery disease highlight arterial-wall-specific mechanisms

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Although 58 genomic regions have been associated with CAD thus far, most of the heritability is unexplained, indicating that additional susceptibility loci await identification. An efficient discovery strategy may be larger-scale evaluation of promising associations suggested by genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Hence, we genotyped 56,309 participants using a targeted gene array derived from earlier GWAS results and performed meta-analysis of results with 194,427 participants previously genotyped, totaling 88,192 CAD cases and 162,544 controls. We identified 25 new SNP-CAD associations (P < 5 × 10(-8), in fixed-effects meta-analysis) from 15 genomic regions, including SNPs in or near genes involved in cellular adhesion, leukocyte migration and atherosclerosis (PECAM1, rs1867624), coagulation and inflammation (PROCR, rs867186 (p.Ser219Gly)) and vascular smooth muscle cell differentiation (LMOD1, rs2820315). Correlation of these regions with cell-type-specific gene expression and plasma protein levels sheds light on potential disease mechanisms

Evaluation of emergency department performance:A systematic review on recommended performance and quality-in-care measures

BACKGROUND: Evaluation of emergency department (ED) performance remains a difficult task due to the lack of consensus on performance measures that reflects high quality, efficiency, and sustainability. AIM: To describe, map, and critically evaluate which performance measures that the published literature regard as being most relevant in assessing overall ED performance. METHODS: Following the PRISMA guidelines, a systematic literature review of review articles reporting accentuated ED performance measures was conducted in the databases of PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Study eligibility criteria includes: 1) the main purpose was to discuss, analyse, or promote performance measures best reflecting ED performance, 2) the article was a review article, and 3) the article reported macro-level performance measures, thus reflecting an overall departmental performance level. RESULTS: A number of articles addresses this study’s objective (n = 14 of 46 unique hits). Time intervals and patient-related measures were dominant in the identified performance measures in review articles from US, UK, Sweden and Canada. Length of stay (LOS), time between patient arrival to initial clinical assessment, and time between patient arrivals to admission were highlighted by the majority of articles. Concurrently, “patients left without being seen” (LWBS), unplanned re-attendance within a maximum of 72 hours, mortality/morbidity, and number of unintended incidents were the most highlighted performance measures that related directly to the patient. Performance measures related to employees were only stated in two of the 14 included articles. CONCLUSIONS: A total of 55 ED performance measures were identified. ED time intervals were the most recommended performance measures followed by patient centeredness and safety performance measures. ED employee related performance measures were rarely mentioned in the investigated literature. The study’s results allow for advancement towards improved performance measurement and standardised assessment across EDs

In silico mining identifies IGFBP3 as a novel target of methylation in prostate cancer

Promoter hypermethylation is central in deregulating gene expression in cancer. Identification of novel methylation targets in specific cancers provides a basis for their use as biomarkers of disease occurrence and progression. We developed an in silico strategy to globally identify potential targets of promoter hypermethylation in prostate cancer by screening for 5′ CpG islands in 631 genes that were reported as downregulated in prostate cancer. A virtual archive of 338 potential targets of methylation was produced. One candidate, IGFBP3, was selected for investigation, along with glutathione-S-transferase pi (GSTP1), a well-known methylation target in prostate cancer. Methylation of IGFBP3 was detected by quantitative methylation-specific PCR in 49/79 primary prostate adenocarcinoma and 7/14 adjacent preinvasive high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia, but in only 5/37 benign prostatic hyperplasia (P<0.0001) and in 0/39 histologically normal adjacent prostate tissue, which implies that methylation of IGFBP3 may be involved in the early stages of prostate cancer development. Hypermethylation of IGFBP3 was only detected in samples that also demonstrated methylation of GSTP1 and was also correlated with Gleason score ⩾7 (P=0.01), indicating that it has potential as a prognostic marker. In addition, pharmacological demethylation induced strong expression of IGFBP3 in LNCaP prostate cancer cells. Our concept of a methylation candidate gene bank was successful in identifying a novel target of frequent hypermethylation in early-stage prostate cancer. Evaluation of further relevant genes could contribute towards a methylation signature of this disease

What works for whom in the management of diabetes in people living with dementia: a realist review

Background Dementia and diabetes mellitus are common long-term conditions and co-exist in a large number of older people. People living with dementia (PLWD) may be less able to manage their diabetes, putting them at increased risk of complications such as hypoglycaemia. The aim of this review was to identify key mechanisms within different interventions that are likely to improve diabetes outcomes in PLWD. Methods This is a realist review involving scoping of the literature and stakeholder interviews to develop theoretical explanations of how interventions might work, systematic searches of the evidence to test and develop the theories and their validation with a purposive sample of stakeholders. Twenty-six stakeholders — user/patient representatives, dementia care providers, clinicians specialising in diabetes or dementia and researchers — took part in interviews, and 24 participated in a consensus conference. Results We included 89 papers. Ten focused on PLWD and diabetes, and the remainder related to people with either dementia, diabetes or other long-term conditions. We identified six context-mechanism-outcome configurations which provide an explanatory account of how interventions might work to improve the management of diabetes in PLWD. This includes embedding positive attitudes towards PLWD, person-centred approaches to care planning, developing skills to provide tailored and flexible care, regular contact, family engagement and usability of assistive devices. An overarching contingency emerged concerning the synergy between an intervention strategy, the dementia trajectory and social and environmental factors, especially family involvement. Conclusions Evidence highlighted the need for personalised care, continuity and family-centred approaches, although there was limited evidence that this happens routinely. This review suggests there is a need for a flexible service model that prioritises quality of life, independence and patient and carer priorities. Future research on the management of diabetes in older people with complex health needs, including those with dementia, needs to look at how organisational structures and workforce development can be better aligned to their needs. Trial registration PROSPERO, CRD42015020625. Registered on 18 May 2015