Eruption type probability and eruption source parameters at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes (Ecuador) with uncertainty quantification

Future occurrence of explosive eruptive activity at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, is assessed probabilistically, utilizing expert elicitation. Eight eruption types were considered for each volcano. Type event probabilities were evaluated for the next eruption at each volcano and for at least one of each type within the next 100 years. For each type, we elicited relevant eruption source parameters (duration, average plume height, and total tephra mass). We investigated the robustness of these elicited evaluations by deriving probability uncertainties using three expert scoring methods. For Cotopaxi, we considered both rhyolitic and andesitic magmas. Elicitation findings indicate that the most probable next eruption type is an andesitic hydrovolcanic/ash-emission (~ 26–44% median probability), which has also the highest median probability of recurring over the next 100 years. However, for the next eruption at Cotopaxi, the average joint probabilities for sub-Plinian or Plinian type eruption is of order 30–40%—a significant chance of a violent explosive event. It is inferred that any Cotopaxi rhyolitic eruption could involve a longer duration and greater erupted mass than an andesitic event, likely producing a prolonged emergency. For Guagua Pichincha, future eruption types are expected to be andesitic/dacitic, and a vulcanian event is judged most probable for the next eruption (median probability ~40–55%); this type is expected to be most frequent over the next 100 years, too. However, there is a substantial probability (possibly >40% in average) that the next eruption could be sub-Plinian or Plinian, with all that implies for hazard levels

Circulating adrenomedullin estimates survival and reversibility of organ failure in sepsis: the prospective observational multinational Adrenomedullin and Outcome in Sepsis and Septic Shock-1 (AdrenOSS-1) study

Background: Adrenomedullin (ADM) regulates vascular tone and endothelial permeability during sepsis. Levels of circulating biologically active ADM (bio-ADM) show an inverse relationship with blood pressure and a direct relationship with vasopressor requirement. In the present prospective observational multinational Adrenomedullin and Outcome in Sepsis and Septic Shock 1 (, AdrenOSS-1) study, we assessed relationships between circulating bio-ADM during the initial intensive care unit (ICU) stay and short-term outcome in order to eventually design a biomarker-guided randomized controlled trial. Methods: AdrenOSS-1 was a prospective observational multinational study. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included organ failure as defined by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, organ support with focus on vasopressor/inotropic use, and need for renal replacement therapy. AdrenOSS-1 included 583 patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis or septic shock. Results: Circulating bio-ADM levels were measured upon admission and at day 2. Median bio-ADM concentration upon admission was 80.5 pg/ml [IQR 41.5-148.1 pg/ml]. Initial SOFA score was 7 [IQR 5-10], and 28-day mortality was 22%. We found marked associations between bio-ADM upon admission and 28-day mortality (unadjusted standardized HR 2.3 [CI 1.9-2.9]; adjusted HR 1.6 [CI 1.1-2.5]) and between bio-ADM levels and SOFA score (p < 0.0001). Need of vasopressor/inotrope, renal replacement therapy, and positive fluid balance were more prevalent in patients with a bio-ADM > 70 pg/ml upon admission than in those with bio-ADM ≤ 70 pg/ml. In patients with bio-ADM > 70 pg/ml upon admission, decrease in bio-ADM below 70 pg/ml at day 2 was associated with recovery of organ function at day 7 and better 28-day outcome (9.5% mortality). By contrast, persistently elevated bio-ADM at day 2 was associated with prolonged organ dysfunction and high 28-day mortality (38.1% mortality, HR 4.9, 95% CI 2.5-9.8). Conclusions: AdrenOSS-1 shows that early levels and rapid changes in bio-ADM estimate short-term outcome in sepsis and septic shock. These data are the backbone of the design of the biomarker-guided AdrenOSS-2 trial. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02393781. Registered on March 19, 2015

Estimation of ash injection in the atmosphere by basaltic volcanic plumes: the case of the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruption

During explosive eruptions, volcanic plumes inject ash into the atmosphere and may severely affect air traffic, as illustrated by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. Quantitative estimates of ash injection can be deduced from the height reached by the volcanic plume on the basis of scaling laws inferred from models of powerful Plinian plumes. In less explosive basaltic eruptions, there is a partitioning of the magma influx between the atmospheric plume and an effusive lava flow on the ground. We link the height reached by the volcanic plume with the rate of ash injection in the atmosphere via a refined plume model that (1) includes a recently developed variable entrainment law and (2) accounts for mass partitioning between ground flow and plume. We compute the time evolution of the rate of injection of ash into the atmosphere for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption on the basis of satellite thermal images and plume heights and use the dispersion model of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center of Toulouse to translate these numbers into hazard maps. The classical Plinian model would have overestimated ash injection by about 20% relative to the refined estimate, which does not jeopardize risk assessment. This small error was linked to effective fragmentation by intense interactions of magma with water derived from melting of ice and hence strong mass partitioning into the plume. For a less well fragmented basaltic dry eruption, the error may reach 1 order of magnitude and hence undermine the prediction of ash dispersion, which demonstrates the need to monitor both plume heights and ground flows during an explosive eruption

Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana

Persistent spatial structuring of coastal ocean acidification in the California Current System

The near-term progression of ocean acidification (OA) is projected to bring about sharp changes in the chemistry of coastal upwelling ecosystems. The distribution of OA exposure across these early-impact systems, however, is highly uncertain and limits our understanding of whether and how spatial management actions can be deployed to ameliorate future impacts. Through a novel coastal OA observing network, we have uncovered a remarkably persistent spatial mosaic in the penetration of acidified waters into ecologically-important nearshore habitats across 1,000 km of the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. In the most severe exposure hotspots, suboptimal conditions for calcifying organisms encompassed up to 56% of the summer season, and were accompanied by some of the lowest and most variable pH environments known for the surface ocean. Persistent refuge areas were also found, highlighting new opportunities for local adaptation to address the global challenge of OA in productive coastal systems

Observations of internal wave packets propagating along‐shelf in northern Monterey Bay

Internal waves of depression were observed propagating along‐shelf and into northern Monterey Bay, California (CA) on the inner shelf. These waves had amplitudes approximately equal to the thermocline depth (∼4 m), and were unstable to shear and mix the thermocline. Isopycnal gradient spectra showed that the wave packets lead to an elevated mean dissipation rate of ε = 2.63 × 10−5 m3 s−2 for up to 2 hours after wave passage. The proximity to the surface created strong surface convergences that can actively transport buoyant material, such as plankton, back into the bay. The wave packets were observed regularly over the upwelling season across multiple years suggesting they may have large effects on the documented spatial variation of phytoplankton and larvae on the inner shelf. The timing of the waves suggests they are not formed by tides interacting with bathymetry, but are generated by buoyant plume propagation

Ligand-receptor co-evolution shaped the jasmonate pathway in land plants.

The phytohormone jasmonoyl-isoleucine (JA-Ile) regulates defense, growth and developmental responses in vascular plants. Bryophytes have conserved sequences for all JA-Ile signaling pathway components but lack JA-Ile. We show that, in spite of 450 million years of independent evolution, the JA-Ile receptor COI1 is functionally conserved between the bryophyte Marchantia polymorpha and the eudicot Arabidopsis thaliana but COI1 responds to different ligands in each species. We identified the ligand of Marchantia MpCOI1 as two isomeric forms of the JA-Ile precursor dinor-OPDA (dinor-cis-OPDA and dinor-iso-OPDA). We demonstrate that AtCOI1 functionally complements Mpcoi1 mutation and confers JA-Ile responsiveness and that a single-residue substitution in MpCOI1 is responsible for the evolutionary switch in ligand specificity. Our results identify the ancestral bioactive jasmonate and clarify its biosynthetic pathway, demonstrate the functional conservation of its signaling pathway, and show that JA-Ile and COI1 emergence in vascular plants required co-evolution of hormone biosynthetic complexity and receptor specificity

Angular momentum transport in a contracting stellar radiative zone embedded in a large-scale magnetic field

International audienceContext. Some contracting or expanding stars are thought to host a large-scale magnetic field in their radiative interior. By interacting with the contraction-induced flows, such fields may significantly alter the rotational history of the star. They thus constitute a promising way to address the problem of angular momentum transport during the rapid phases of stellar evolution.Aims. In this work, we aim to study the interplay between flows and magnetic fields in a contracting radiative zone.Methods. We performed axisymmetric Boussinesq and anelastic numerical simulations in which a portion of the radiative zone was modelled by a rotating spherical layer, stably stratified and embedded in a large-scale (either dipolar or quadrupolar) magnetic field. This layer is subject to a mass-conserving radial velocity field mimicking contraction. The quasi-steady flows were studied in strongly or weakly stably stratified regimes relevant for pre-main sequence stars and for the cores of subgiant and red giant stars. The parametric study consists in varying the amplitude of the contraction velocity and of the initial magnetic field. The other parameters were fixed with the guidance of a previous study.Results. After an unsteady phase during which the toroidal field grew linearly and then back-reacted on the flow, a quasi-steady configuration was reached, characterised by the presence of two magnetically decoupled regions. In one of them, magnetic tension imposes solid-body rotation. In the other, called the dead zone, the main force balance in the angular momentum equation does not involve the Lorentz force and a differential rotation exists. In the strongly stably stratified regime, when the initial magnetic field is quadrupolar, a magnetorotational instability is found to develop in the dead zones. The large-scale structure is eventually destroyed and the differential rotation is able to build up in the whole radiative zone. In the weakly stably stratified regime, the instability is not observed in our simulations, but we argue that it may be present in stars.Conclusions. We propose a scenario that may account for the post-main sequence evolution of solar-like stars, in which quasi-solid rotation can be maintained by a large-scale magnetic field during a contraction timescale. Then, an axisymmetric instability would destroy this large-scale structure and this enables the differential rotation to set in. Such a contraction-driven instability could also be at the origin of the observed dichotomy between strongly and weakly magnetic intermediate-mass stars

Axisymmetric investigation of differential rotation in contracting stellar radiative zones

International audienceContext. Stars experience rapid contraction or expansion at different phases of their evolution. Modelling the angular momentum and chemical elements transport occurring during these phases remains an unsolved problem. Aims. We study a stellar radiative zone undergoing radial contraction and investigate the induced differential rotation and meridional circulation. Methods. We consider a rotating spherical layer crossed by an imposed radial velocity field that mimics the contraction and solve numerically the axisymmetric hydrodynamical equations in both the Boussinesq and anelastic approximations. An extensive parametric study is conducted to cover regimes of contraction, rotation, stable stratification and density stratification that are relevant for stars. Results. The differential rotation and the meridional circulation result from a competition between the contraction-driven inward transport of angular momentum and an outward transport dominated by either viscosity or an Eddington-Sweet type circulation, depending on the value of the P r (N 0 /Ω 0) 2 parameter, where P r is the Prandtl number, N 0 the Brunt-Väisäilä frequency and Ω 0 the rotation rate. Taking the density stratification into account is important to study more realistic radial contraction fields but also because the resulting flow is less affected by unwanted effects of the boundary conditions. In these different regimes and for a weak differential rotation, we derive scaling laws that relate the amplitude of the differential rotation to the contraction timescale