How well can body size represent effects of the environment on demographic rates? Disentangling correlated explanatory variables

1. Demographic rates are shaped by the interaction of past and current environments that individuals in a population experience. Past environments shape individual states via selection and plasticity, and fitness-related traits (e.g., individual size) are commonly used in demographic analyses to represent the effect of past22 environments on demographic rates. 2. We quantified how well the size of individuals captures the effects of a population’s past and current environments on demographic rates in a well-studied experimental system of soil mites. We decomposed these interrelated sources of variation with a novel method of multiple regression that is useful for understanding nonlinear relationships between responses and multicollinear explanatory variables. We graphically present the results using area-proportional Venn diagrams. Our novel method was developed by combining existing methods and expanding upon them. 3. We showed that the strength of size as a proxy for the past environment varied widely among vital rates. For instance, in this organism with an income breeding life-history, the environment had more effect on reproduction than individual size, but with substantial overlap indicating that size encompassed some of the effects of the past environment on fecundity. 4. This demonstrates that the strength of size as a proxy for the past environment can vary widely among life-history processes within a species, and this variation should be taken into consideration in trait-based demographic or individual-based approaches that focus on phenotypic traits as state variables. Furthermore, the strength of a proxy will depend on what state variable(s) and what demographic rate is being examined; i.e., different measures of body size (e.g., length, volume, mass, fat stores) will be better or worse proxies for various life-history processes

Balancing the dilution and oddity effects: Decisions depend on body size

Background Grouping behaviour, common across the animal kingdom, is known to reduce an individual's risk of predation; particularly through dilution of individual risk and predator confusion (predator inability to single out an individual for attack). Theory predicts greater risk of predation to individuals more conspicuous to predators by difference in appearance from the group (the ‘oddity’ effect). Thus, animals should choose group mates close in appearance to themselves (eg. similar size), whilst also choosing a large group. Methodology and Principal Findings We used the Trinidadian guppy (Poecilia reticulata), a well known model species of group-living freshwater fish, in a series of binary choice trials investigating the outcome of conflict between preferences for large and phenotypically matched groups along a predation risk gradient. We found body-size dependent differences in the resultant social decisions. Large fish preferred shoaling with size-matched individuals, while small fish demonstrated no preference. There was a trend towards reduced preferences for the matched shoal under increased predation risk. Small fish were more active than large fish, moving between shoals more frequently. Activity levels increased as predation risk decreased. We found no effect of unmatched shoal size on preferences or activity. Conclusions and Significance Our results suggest that predation risk and individual body size act together to influence shoaling decisions. Oddity was more important for large than small fish, reducing in importance at higher predation risks. Dilution was potentially of limited importance at these shoal sizes. Activity levels may relate to how much sampling of each shoal was needed by the test fish during decision making. Predation pressure may select for better decision makers to survive to larger size, or that older, larger fish have learned to make shoaling decisions more efficiently, and this, combined with their size relative to shoal-mates, and attractiveness as prey items influences shoaling decisions

Integration of decision support systems to improve decision support performance

Decision support system (DSS) is a well-established research and development area. Traditional isolated, stand-alone DSS has been recently facing new challenges. In order to improve the performance of DSS to meet the challenges, research has been actively carried out to develop integrated decision support systems (IDSS). This paper reviews the current research efforts with regard to the development of IDSS. The focus of the paper is on the integration aspect for IDSS through multiple perspectives, and the technologies that support this integration. More than 100 papers and software systems are discussed. Current research efforts and the development status of IDSS are explained, compared and classified. In addition, future trends and challenges in integration are outlined. The paper concludes that by addressing integration, better support will be provided to decision makers, with the expectation of both better decisions and improved decision making processes

Abnormal spatial diffusion of Ca2+ in F508del-CFTR airway epithelial cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In airway epithelial cells, calcium mobilization can be elicited by selective autocrine and/or paracrine activation of apical or basolateral membrane heterotrimeric G protein-coupled receptors linked to phospholipase C (PLC) stimulation, which generates inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate (IP₃) and 1,2-diacylglycerol (DAG) and induces Ca²⁺release from endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stores.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the present study, we monitored the cytosolic Ca²⁺transients using the UV light photolysis technique to uncage caged Ca²⁺or caged IP₃into the cytosol of loaded airway epithelial cells of cystic fibrosis (CF) and non-CF origin. We compared in these cells the types of Ca²⁺receptors present in the ER, and measured their Ca²⁺dependent activity before and after correction of F508del-CFTR abnormal trafficking either by low temperature or by the pharmacological corrector miglustat (N-butyldeoxynojirimycin).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We showed reduction of the inositol 1,4,5-trisphosphate receptors (IP₃R) dependent-Ca²⁺response following both correcting treatments compared to uncorrected cells in such a way that Ca²⁺responses (CF+treatment <it>vs </it>wild-type cells) were normalized. This normalization of the Ca²⁺rate does not affect the activity of Ca²⁺-dependent chloride channel in miglustat-treated CF cells. Using two inhibitors of IP₃R1, we observed a decrease of the implication of IP₃R1 in the Ca²⁺response in CF corrected cells. We observed a similar Ca²⁺mobilization between CF-KM4 cells and CFTR-cDNA transfected CF cells (CF-KM4-reverted). When we restored the F508del-CFTR trafficking in CFTR-reverted cells, the specific IP₃R activity was also reduced to a similar level as in non CF cells. At the structural level, the ER morphology of CF cells was highly condensed around the nucleus while in non CF cells or corrected CF cells the ER was extended at the totality of cell.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>These results suggest reversal of the IP₃R dysfunction in F508del-CFTR epithelial cells by correction of the abnormal trafficking of F508del-CFTR in cystic fibrosis cells. Moreover, using CFTR cDNA-transfected CF cells, we demonstrated that abnormal increase of IP₃R Ca²⁺release in CF human epithelial cells could be the consequence of F508del-CFTR retention in ER compartment.</p

A population-specific material model for sagittal craniosynostosis to predict surgical shape outcomes

Sagittal craniosynostosis consists of premature fusion (ossification) of the sagittal suture during infancy, resulting in head deformity and brain growth restriction. Spring-assisted cranioplasty (SAC) entails skull incisions to free the fused suture and insertion of two springs (metallic distractors) to promote cranial reshaping. Although safe and effective, SAC outcomes remain uncertain. We aimed hereby to obtain and validate a skull material model for SAC outcome prediction. Computed tomography data relative to 18 patients were processed to simulate surgical cuts and spring location. A rescaling model for age matching was created using retrospective data and validated. Design of experiments was used to assess the effect of different material property parameters on the model output. Subsequent material optimization—using retrospective clinical spring measurements—was performed for nine patients. A population-derived material model was obtained and applied to the whole population. Results showed that bone Young’s modulus and relaxation modulus had the largest effect on the model predictions: the use of the population-derived material model had a negligible effect on improving the prediction of on-table opening while significantly improved the prediction of spring kinematics at follow-up. The model was validated using on-table 3D scans for nine patients: the predicted head shape approximated within 2 mm the 3D scan model in 80% of the surface points, in 8 out of 9 patients. The accuracy and reliability of the developed computational model of SAC were increased using population data: this tool is now ready for prospective clinical application

The Value of Intraoperative Parathyroid Hormone Monitoring in Localized Primary Hyperparathyroidism: A Cost Analysis

Minimally invasive parathyroidectomy (MIP) is the preferred approach to primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) when a single adenoma can be localized preoperatively. The added value of intraoperative parathyroid hormone (IOPTH) monitoring remains debated because its ability to prevent failed parathyroidectomy due to unrecognized multiple gland disease (MGD) must be balanced against assay-related costs. We used a decision tree and cost analysis model to examine IOPTH monitoring in localized PHPT. Literature review identified 17 studies involving 4,280 unique patients, permitting estimation of base case costs and probabilities. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the uncertainty of the assumptions associated with IOPTH monitoring and surgical outcomes. IOPTH cost, MGD rate, and reoperation cost were varied to evaluate potential cost savings from IOPTH. The base case assumption was that in well-localized PHPT, IOPTH monitoring would increase the success rate of MIP from 96.3 to 98.8%. The cost of IOPTH varied with operating room time used. IOPTH reduced overall treatment costs only when total assay-related costs fell below $110 per case. Inaccurate localization and high reoperation cost both independently increased the value of IOPTH monitoring. The IOPTH strategy was cost saving when the rate of unrecognized MGD exceeded 6$12,000 (compared with initial MIP cost of $3733). Setting the positive predictive value of IOPTH at 100% and reducing the false-negative rate to 0% did not substantially alter these findings. Institution-specific factors influence the value of IOPTH. In this model, IOPTH increased the cure rate marginally while incurring approximately 4% additional cost

Defining the Boundaries of Normal Thrombin Generation: Investigations into Hemostasis

In terms of its soluble precursors, the coagulation proteome varies quantitatively among apparently healthy individuals. The significance of this variability remains obscure, in part because it is the backdrop against which the hemostatic consequences of more dramatic composition differences are studied. In this study we have defined the consequences of normal range variation of components of the coagulation proteome by using a mechanism-based computational approach that translates coagulation factor concentration data into a representation of an individual's thrombin generation potential. A novel graphical method is used to integrate standard measures that characterize thrombin generation in both empirical and computational models (e.g max rate, max level, total thrombin, time to 2 nM thrombin (“clot time”)) to visualize how normal range variation in coagulation factors results in unique thrombin generation phenotypes. Unique ensembles of the 8 coagulation factors encompassing the limits of normal range variation were used as initial conditions for the computational modeling, each ensemble representing “an individual” in a theoretical healthy population. These “individuals” with unremarkable proteome composition was then compared to actual normal and “abnormal” individuals, i.e. factor ensembles measured in apparently healthy individuals, actual coagulopathic individuals or artificially constructed factor ensembles representing individuals with specific factor deficiencies. A sensitivity analysis was performed to rank either individual factors or all possible pairs of factors in terms of their contribution to the overall distribution of thrombin generation phenotypes. Key findings of these analyses include: normal range variation of coagulation factors yields thrombin generation phenotypes indistinguishable from individuals with some, but not all, coagulopathies examined; coordinate variation of certain pairs of factors within their normal ranges disproportionately results in extreme thrombin generation phenotypes, implying that measurement of a smaller set of factors may be sufficient to identify individuals with aberrant thrombin generation potential despite normal coagulation proteome composition

Fluvial sediment supply to a mega-delta reduced by shifting tropical-cyclone activity

© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature. All rights reserved. The world's rivers deliver 19 billion tonnes of sediment to the coastal zone annually, with a considerable fraction being sequestered in large deltas, home to over 500 million people. Most (more than 70 per cent) large deltas are under threat from a combination of rising sea levels, ground surface subsidence and anthropogenic sediment trapping, and a sustainable supply of fluvial sediment is therefore critical to prevent deltas being 'drowned' by rising relative sea levels. Here we combine suspended sediment load data from the Mekong River with hydrological model simulations to isolate the role of tropical cyclones in transmitting suspended sediment to one of the world's great deltas. We demonstrate that spatial variations in the Mekong's suspended sediment load are correlated (r = 0.765, P < 0.1) with observed variations in tropical-cyclone climatology, and that a substantial portion (32 per cent) of the suspended sediment load reaching the delta is delivered by runoff generated by rainfall associated with tropical cyclones. Furthermore, we estimate that the suspended load to the delta has declined by 52.6 ± 10.2 megatonnes over recent years (1981-2005), of which 33.0 ± 7.1 megatonnes is due to a shift in tropical-cyclone climatology. Consequently, tropical cyclones have a key role in controlling the magnitude of, and variability in, transmission of suspended sediment to the coast. It is likely that anthropogenic sediment trapping in upstream reservoirs is a dominant factor in explaining past, and anticipating future, declines in suspended sediment loads reaching the world's major deltas. However, our study shows that changes in tropical-cyclone climatology affect trends in fluvial suspended sediment loads and thus are also key to fully assessing the risk posed to vulnerable coastal systems