Bayesian regression filter and the issue of priors

We propose a Bayesian framework for regression problems, which covers areas which are usually dealt with by function approximation. An online learning algorithm is derived which solves regression problems with a Kalman filter. Its solution always improves with increasing model complexity, without the risk of over-fitting. In the infinite dimension limit it approaches the true Bayesian posterior. The issues of prior selection and over-fitting are also discussed, showing that some of the commonly held beliefs are misleading. The practical implementation is summarised. Simulations using 13 popular publicly available data sets are used to demonstrate the method and highlight important issues concerning the choice of priors

Confirmation of low genetic diversity and multiple breeding females in a social group of Eurasian badgers from microsatellite and field data

The Eurasian badger ( Meles meles ) is a facultatively social carnivore that shows only rudimentary co-operative behaviour and a poorly defined social hierarchy. Behavioural evidence and limited genetic data have suggested that more than one female may breed in a social group. We combine pregnancy detection by ultrasound and microsatellite locus scores from a well-studied badger population from Wytham Woods, Oxfordshire, UK, to demonstrate that multiple females reproduce within a social group. We found that at least three of seven potential mothers reproduced in a group that contained 11 reproductive age females and nine offspring. Twelve primers showed variability across the species range and only five of these were variable in Wytham. The microsatellites showed a reduced repeat number, a significantly higher number of nonperfect repeats, and moderate heterozygosity levels in Wytham. The high frequency of imperfect repeats and demographic phenomena might be responsible for the reduced levels of variability observed in the badger

Yorkshire Enhanced Stop Smoking (YESS) study: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effect of adding a personalised smoking cessation intervention to a lung cancer screening programme

Introduction: Integration of smoking cessation (SC) into lung cancer screening is essential to optimise clinical and cost effectiveness. The most effective way to use this ‘teachable moment’ is unclear. The Yorkshire Enhanced Stop Smoking study will measure the effectiveness of an SC service integrated within the Yorkshire Lung Screening Trial (YLST) and will test the efficacy of a personalised SC intervention, incorporating incidental findings detected on the low-dose CT scan performed as part of YLST. / Methods and analysis: Unless explicitly declined, all smokers enrolled in YLST will see an SC practitioner at baseline and receive SC support over 4 weeks comprising behavioural support, pharmacotherapy and/or a commercially available e-cigarette. Eligible smokers will be randomised (1:1 in permuted blocks of random size up to size 6) to receive either an enhanced, personalised SC support package, including CT scan images, or continued standard best practice. Anticipated recruitment is 1040 smokers (January 2019–December 2020). The primary objective is to measure 7-day point prevalent carbon monoxide (CO) validated SC after 3 months. Secondary outcomes include CO validated cessation at 4 weeks and 12 months, self-reported continuous cessation at 4 weeks, 3 months and 12 months, attempts to quit smoking and changes in psychological variables, including perceived risk of lung cancer, motivation to quit smoking tobacco, confidence and efficacy beliefs (self and response) at all follow-up points. A process evaluation will explore under which circumstances and on which groups the intervention works best, test intervention fidelity and theory test the mechanisms of intervention impact. / Ethics and dissemination: This study has been approved by the East Midlands-Derby Research Ethics Committee (18/EM/0199) and the Health Research Authority/Health and Care Research Wales. Results will be disseminated through publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals, presentation at conferences and via the YLST website. / Trial registration numbers: ISRCTN63825779, NCT03750110

Eliciting a predatory response in the eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) using live and inanimate sensory stimuli: implications for managing invasive populations

North America's Eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) has been introduced to several islands throughout the Caribbean and Australasia where it poses a significant threat to native wildlife. Invasive snake control programs often involve trapping with live bait, a practice that, as well as being costly and labour intensive, raises welfare and ethical concerns. This study assessed corn snake response to live and inanimate sensory stimuli in an attempt to inform possible future trapping of the species and the development of alternative trap lures. We exposed nine individuals to sensory cues in the form of odour, visual, vibration and combined stimuli and measured the response (rate of tongue-flick [RTF]). RTF was significantly higher in odour and combined cues treatments, and there was no significant difference in RTF between live and inanimate cues during odour treatments. Our findings suggest chemical cues are of primary importance in initiating predation and that an inanimate odour stimulus, absent of simultaneous visual and vibratory cues, is a potential low-cost alternative trap lure for the control of invasive corn snake populations

Mathematical modeling of the metastatic process

Mathematical modeling in cancer has been growing in popularity and impact since its inception in 1932. The first theoretical mathematical modeling in cancer research was focused on understanding tumor growth laws and has grown to include the competition between healthy and normal tissue, carcinogenesis, therapy and metastasis. It is the latter topic, metastasis, on which we will focus this short review, specifically discussing various computational and mathematical models of different portions of the metastatic process, including: the emergence of the metastatic phenotype, the timing and size distribution of metastases, the factors that influence the dormancy of micrometastases and patterns of spread from a given primary tumor.Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, Revie

MicroRNAs: exploring a new dimension in the pathogenesis of kidney cancer

Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is the most common neoplasm of the adult kidney. The role of the von-Hippel-Lindeau (VHL) tumour suppressor gene is well established in RCC with a loss of VHL protein leading to accumulated hypoxia-induced factor (HIF) and the subsequent transcriptional activation of multiple downstream targets. Recently, microRNAs (miRNAs) have been shown to be differentially expressed in RCC and their role in RCC pathogenesis is emerging. This month, in BMC Medicine, Gleadle and colleagues show that certain miRNAs are regulated by VHL in either a hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-dependent or HIF-independent manner in RCC. They also show that miRNA expression correlates with the survival of RCC patients

A Secure Semi-Field System for the Study of Aedes aegypti

Novel vector control strategies require validation in the field before they can be widely accepted. Semi-field system (SFS) containment facilities are an intermediate step between laboratory and field trials that offer a safe, controlled environment that replicates field conditions. We developed a SFS laboratory and cage complex that simulates an urban house and yard, which is the primary habitat for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue in Cairns Australia. The SFS consists of a Quarantine Insectary Level-2 (QIC-2) laboratory, containing 3 constant temperature rooms, that is connected to two QIS-2 cages for housing released mosquitoes. Each cage contains the understory of a “Queenslander” timber house and associated yard. An automated air conditioning system keeps temperature and humidity to within 1°C and 5% RH of ambient conditions, respectively. Survival of released A. aegypti was high, especially for females. We are currently using the SFS to investigate the invasion of strains of Wolbachia within populations of A. aegypti

Measurement of the running of the QED coupling in small-angle Bhabha scattering at LEP

Using the OPAL detector at LEP, the running of the effective QED coupling alpha(t) is measured for space-like momentum transfer from the angular distribution of small-angle Bhabha scattering. In an almost ideal QED framework, with very favourable experimental conditions, we obtain: Delta alpha(-6.07GeV^2) - Delta alpha(-1.81GeV^2) = (440 pm 58 pm 43 pm 30) X 10^-5, where the first error is statistical, the second is the experimental systematic and the third is the theoretical uncertainty. This agrees with current evaluations of alpha(t).The null hypothesis that alpha remains constant within the above interval of -t is excluded with a significance above 5sigma. Similarly, our results are inconsistent at the level of 3sigma with the hypothesis that only leptonic loops contribute to the running. This is currently the most significant direct measurment where the running alpha(t) is probed differentially within the measured t range.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.

A Measurement of Rb using a Double Tagging Method

The fraction of Z to bbbar events in hadronic Z decays has been measured by the OPAL experiment using the data collected at LEP between 1992 and 1995. The Z to bbbar decays were tagged using displaced secondary vertices, and high momentum electrons and muons. Systematic uncertainties were reduced by measuring the b-tagging efficiency using a double tagging technique. Efficiency correlations between opposite hemispheres of an event are small, and are well understood through comparisons between real and simulated data samples. A value of Rb = 0.2178 +- 0.0011 +- 0.0013 was obtained, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. The uncertainty on Rc, the fraction of Z to ccbar events in hadronic Z decays, is not included in the errors. The dependence on Rc is Delta(Rb)/Rb = -0.056*Delta(Rc)/Rc where Delta(Rc) is the deviation of Rc from the value 0.172 predicted by the Standard Model. The result for Rb agrees with the value of 0.2155 +- 0.0003 predicted by the Standard Model.Comment: 42 pages, LaTeX, 14 eps figures included, submitted to European Physical Journal