Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Spatial distribution of podoconiosis in relation to environmental factors in Ethiopia: a historical review

BACKGROUND An up-to-date and reliable map of podoconiosis is needed to design geographically targeted and cost-effective intervention in Ethiopia. Identifying the ecological correlates of the distribution of podoconiosis is the first step for distribution and risk maps. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial distribution and ecological correlates of podoconiosis using historical and contemporary survey data. METHODS Data on the observed prevalence of podoconiosis were abstracted from published and unpublished literature into a standardized database, according to strict inclusion and exclusion criteria. In total, 10 studies conducted between 1969 and 2012 were included, and data were available for 401,674 individuals older than 15 years of age from 229 locations. A range of high resolution environmental factors were investigated to determine their association with podoconiosis prevalence, using logistic regression. RESULTS The prevalence of podoconiosis in Ethiopia was estimated at 3.4% (95% CI 3.3%-3.4%) with marked regional variation. We identified significant associations between mean annual Land Surface Temperature (LST), mean annual precipitation, topography of the land and fine soil texture and high prevalence of podoconiosis. The derived maps indicate both widespread occurrence of podoconiosis and a marked variability in prevalence of podoconiosis, with prevalence typically highest at altitudes >1500 m above sea level (masl), with >1500 mm annual rainfall and mean annual LST of 19-21°C. No (or very little) podoconiosis occurred at altitudes 24°C. CONCLUSION Podoconiosis remains a public health problem in Ethiopia over considerable areas of the country, but exhibits marked geographical variation associated in part with key environmental factors. This is work in progress and the results presented here will be refined in future work

Mechanisms Underlying Hypoxia Tolerance in Drosophila melanogaster: hairy as a Metabolic Switch

Hypoxia-induced cell injury has been related to multiple pathological conditions. In order to render hypoxia-sensitive cells and tissues resistant to low O2 environment, in this current study, we used Drosophila melanogaster as a model to dissect the mechanisms underlying hypoxia-tolerance. A D. melanogaster strain that lives perpetually in an extremely low-oxygen environment (4% O2, an oxygen level that is equivalent to that over about 4,000 m above Mt. Everest) was generated through laboratory selection pressure using a continuing reduction of O2 over many generations. This phenotype is genetically stable since selected flies, after several generations in room air, survive at this low O2 level. Gene expression profiling showed striking differences between tolerant and naïve flies, in larvae and adults, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Up-regulated genes in the tolerant flies included signal transduction pathways (e.g., Notch and Toll/Imd pathways), but metabolic genes were remarkably down-regulated in the larvae. Furthermore, a different allelic frequency and enzymatic activity of the triose phosphate isomerase (TPI) was present in the tolerant versus naïve flies. The transcriptional suppressor, hairy, was up-regulated in the microarrays and its binding elements were present in the regulatory region of the specifically down-regulated metabolic genes but not others, and mutations in hairy significantly reduced hypoxia tolerance. We conclude that, the hypoxia-selected flies: (a) altered their gene expression and genetic code, and (b) coordinated their metabolic suppression, especially during development, with hairy acting as a metabolic switch, thus playing a crucial role in hypoxia-tolerance

Cross-protection against European swine influenza viruses in the context of infection immunity against the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus : studies in the pig model of influenza

Pigs are natural hosts for the same influenza virus subtypes as humans and are a valuable model for cross-protection studies with influenza. In this study, we have used the pig model to examine the extent of virological protection between a) the 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) virus and three different European H1 swine influenza virus (SIV) lineages, and b) these H1 viruses and a European H3N2 SIV. Pigs were inoculated intranasally with representative strains of each virus lineage with 6- and 17-week intervals between H1 inoculations and between H1 and H3 inoculations, respectively. Virus titers in nasal swabs and/or tissues of the respiratory tract were determined after each inoculation. There was substantial though differing cross-protection between pH1N1 and other H1 viruses, which was directly correlated with the relatedness in the viral hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) proteins. Cross-protection against H3N2 was almost complete in pigs with immunity against H1N2, but was weak in H1N1/pH1N1-immune pigs. In conclusion, infection with a live, wild type influenza virus may offer substantial cross-lineage protection against viruses of the same HA and/or NA subtype. True heterosubtypic protection, in contrast, appears to be minimal in natural influenza virus hosts. We discuss our findings in the light of the zoonotic and pandemic risks of SIVs

Neural Network Parameterizations of Electromagnetic Nucleon Form Factors

The electromagnetic nucleon form-factors data are studied with artificial feed forward neural networks. As a result the unbiased model-independent form-factor parametrizations are evaluated together with uncertainties. The Bayesian approach for the neural networks is adapted for chi2 error-like function and applied to the data analysis. The sequence of the feed forward neural networks with one hidden layer of units is considered. The given neural network represents a particular form-factor parametrization. The so-called evidence (the measure of how much the data favor given statistical model) is computed with the Bayesian framework and it is used to determine the best form factor parametrization.Comment: The revised version is divided into 4 sections. The discussion of the prior assumptions is added. The manuscript contains 4 new figures and 2 new tables (32 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables

When Your Decisions Are Not (Quite) Your Own: Action Observation Influences Free Choices

A growing number of studies have begun to assess how the actions of one individual are represented in an observer. Using a variant of an action observation paradigm, four experiments examined whether one person's behaviour can influence the subjective decisions and judgements of another. In Experiment 1, two observers sat adjacent to each other and took turns to freely select and reach to one of two locations. Results showed that participants were less likely to make a response to the same location as their partner. In three further experiments observers were asked to decide which of two familiar products they preferred or which of two faces were most attractive. Results showed that participants were less likely to choose the product or face occupying the location of their partner's previous reaching response. These findings suggest that action observation can influence a range of free choice preferences and decisions. Possible mechanisms through which this influence occurs are discussed

Consequences of converting graded to action potentials upon neural information coding and energy efficiency

Information is encoded in neural circuits using both graded and action potentials, converting between them within single neurons and successive processing layers. This conversion is accompanied by information loss and a drop in energy efficiency. We investigate the biophysical causes of this loss of information and efficiency by comparing spiking neuron models, containing stochastic voltage-gated Na+ and K+ channels, with generator potential and graded potential models lacking voltage-gated Na+ channels. We identify three causes of information loss in the generator potential that are the by-product of action potential generation: (1) the voltage-gated Na+ channels necessary for action potential generation increase intrinsic noise and (2) introduce non-linearities, and (3) the finite duration of the action potential creates a ‘footprint’ in the generator potential that obscures incoming signals. These three processes reduce information rates by ~50% in generator potentials, to ~3 times that of spike trains. Both generator potentials and graded potentials consume almost an order of magnitude less energy per second than spike trains. Because of the lower information rates of generator potentials they are substantially less energy efficient than graded potentials. However, both are an order of magnitude more efficient than spike trains due to the higher energy costs and low information content of spikes, emphasizing that there is a two-fold cost of converting analogue to digital; information loss and cost inflation

In Vitro Dermal Safety Assessment of Silver Nanowires after Acute Exposure: Tissue vs. Cell Models

Silver nanowires (AgNW) are attractive materials that are anticipated to be incorporated into numerous consumer products such as textiles, touchscreen display, and medical devices that could be in direct contact with skin. There are very few studies on the cellular toxicity of AgNW and no studies that have specifically evaluated the potential toxicity from dermal exposure. To address this question, we investigated the dermal toxicity after acute exposure of polymer-coated AgNW with two sizes using two models, human primary keratinocytes and human reconstructed epidermis. In keratinocytes, AgNW are rapidly and massively internalized inside cells leading to dose-dependent cytotoxicity that was not due to Ag+ release. Analysing our data with different dose metrics, we propose that the number of NW is the most appropriate dose-metric for studies of AgNW toxicity. In reconstructed epidermis, the results of a standard in vitro skin irritation assay classified AgNW as non-irritant to skin and we found no evidence of penetration into the deeper layer of the epidermis. The findings show that healthy and intact epidermis provides an effective barrier for AgNW, although the study does not address potential transport through follicles or injured skin. The combined cell and tissue model approach used here is likely to provide an important methodology for assessing the risks for skin exposure to AgNW from consumer products

Quantum physics in inertial and gravitational fields

Covariant generalizations of well-known wave equations predict the existence of inertial-gravitational effects for a variety of quantum systems that range from Bose-Einstein condensates to particles in accelerators. Additional effects arise in models that incorporate Born reciprocity principle and the notion of a maximal acceleration. Some specific examples are discussed in detail.Comment: 25 pages,1 figure,to appear in "Relativity in Rotating Frame