Multiple Geographic Origins of Commensalism and Complex Dispersal History of Black Rats

The Black Rat (Rattus rattus) spread out of Asia to become one of the world's worst agricultural and urban pests, and a reservoir or vector of numerous zoonotic diseases, including the devastating plague. Despite the global scale and inestimable cost of their impacts on both human livelihoods and natural ecosystems, little is known of the global genetic diversity of Black Rats, the timing and directions of their historical dispersals, and the risks associated with contemporary movements. We surveyed mitochondrial DNA of Black Rats collected across their global range as a first step towards obtaining an historical genetic perspective on this socioeconomically important group of rodents. We found a strong phylogeographic pattern with well-differentiated lineages of Black Rats native to South Asia, the Himalayan region, southern Indochina, and northern Indochina to East Asia, and a diversification that probably commenced in the early Middle Pleistocene. We also identified two other currently recognised species of Rattus as potential derivatives of a paraphyletic R. rattus. Three of the four phylogenetic lineage units within R. rattus show clear genetic signatures of major population expansion in prehistoric times, and the distribution of particular haplogroups mirrors archaeologically and historically documented patterns of human dispersal and trade. Commensalism clearly arose multiple times in R. rattus and in widely separated geographic regions, and this may account for apparent regionalism in their associated pathogens. Our findings represent an important step towards deeper understanding the complex and influential relationship that has developed between Black Rats and humans, and invite a thorough re-examination of host-pathogen associations among Black Rats

Conservation of pattern as a tool for inference on spatial snapshots in ecological data

As climate change and other anthropogenic factors increase the uncertainty of vegetation ecosystem persistence, the ability to rapidly assess their dynamics is paramount. Vegetation and sessile communities form a variety of striking regular spatial patterns such as stripes, spots and labyrinths, that have been used as indicators of ecosystem current state, through qualitative analysis of simple models. Here we describe a new method for rigorous quantitative estimation of biological parameters from a single spatial snapshot. We formulate a synthetic likelihood through consideration of the expected change in the correlation structure of the spatial pattern. This then allows Bayesian inference to be performed on the model parameters, which includes providing parameter uncertainty. The method was validated against simulated data and then applied to real data in the form of aerial photographs of seagrass banding. The inferred parameters were found to be able to reproduce similar patterns to those observed and able to detect strength of spatial competition, competition-induced mortality and the local range of reproduction. This technique points to a way of performing rapid inference of spatial competition and ecological stability from a single spatial snapshots of sessile communities

Effect of alirocumab on mortality after acute coronary syndromes. An analysis of the ODYSSEY OUTCOMES randomized clinical trial

Background: Previous trials of PCSK9 (proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9) inhibitors demonstrated reductions in major adverse cardiovascular events, but not death. We assessed the effects of alirocumab on death after index acute coronary syndrome. Methods: ODYSSEY OUTCOMES (Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcomes After an Acute Coronary Syndrome During Treatment With Alirocumab) was a double-blind, randomized comparison of alirocumab or placebo in 18 924 patients who had an ACS 1 to 12 months previously and elevated atherogenic lipoproteins despite intensive statin therapy. Alirocumab dose was blindly titrated to target achieved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) between 25 and 50 mg/dL. We examined the effects of treatment on all-cause death and its components, cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, with log-rank testing. Joint semiparametric models tested associations between nonfatal cardiovascular events and cardiovascular or noncardiovascular death. Results: Median follow-up was 2.8 years. Death occurred in 334 (3.5%) and 392 (4.1%) patients, respectively, in the alirocumab and placebo groups (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.98; P=0.03, nominal P value). This resulted from nonsignificantly fewer cardiovascular (240 [2.5%] vs 271 [2.9%]; HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.05; P=0.15) and noncardiovascular (94 [1.0%] vs 121 [1.3%]; HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.59 to 1.01; P=0.06) deaths with alirocumab. In a prespecified analysis of 8242 patients eligible for ≥3 years follow-up, alirocumab reduced death (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.94; P=0.01). Patients with nonfatal cardiovascular events were at increased risk for cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths (P<0.0001 for the associations). Alirocumab reduced total nonfatal cardiovascular events (P<0.001) and thereby may have attenuated the number of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular deaths. A post hoc analysis found that, compared to patients with lower LDL-C, patients with baseline LDL-C ≥100 mg/dL (2.59 mmol/L) had a greater absolute risk of death and a larger mortality benefit from alirocumab (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.90; Pinteraction=0.007). In the alirocumab group, all-cause death declined wit h achieved LDL-C at 4 months of treatment, to a level of approximately 30 mg/dL (adjusted P=0.017 for linear trend). Conclusions: Alirocumab added to intensive statin therapy has the potential to reduce death after acute coronary syndrome, particularly if treatment is maintained for ≥3 years, if baseline LDL-C is ≥100 mg/dL, or if achieved LDL-C is low. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01663402

Generation of realistic synthetic catchments to explore fine continental surface processes

International audienceUnderstanding, analysing, and predicting the erosion mechanisms and sedimentary flows produced by catchments plays a key role in environmental conservation and restoration management and policies. Numerical case-testing studies are generally undertaken to analyse the sensitivity of flood and soil erosion processes to the physical characteristics of catchments. Most analyses are conducted on simple virtual catchments with physical characteristics that, unlike real catchments, are perfectly controlled. Virtual catchments generally correspond to V-shaped valley catchments. However, although these catchments are suitable for methodical analysis of the results, they do not provide a realistic representation of the spatial structures of the landscape and field conditions. They can, therefore, lead to potential modelling errors and can make it difficult to extend or generalize their results. Our proposed method bridges the gap between real and traditional virtual catchments by creating realistic virtual catchments with perfectly controllable physical characteristics. Our approach represents a real alternative to traditional test case procedures and provides a new framework for geomorphological and hydrological communities. It combines a field procedural generation approach, geographic information system processing procedures, and the CAESAR-Lisflood landscape evolution model. We illustrate how each of these components acts in the process of generating virtual catchments. Five physical parameters were adjusted and tested for each virtual catchment: drainage density, hypsometric integral, mean slope of the main channel, granulometry, and land use. One of our virtual catchments is compared with a real catchment and a virtual catchment produced by a standard method. This comparison indicates that our approach can produce more realistic virtual catchments than those produced by more traditional methods, while a high degree of controllability is maintained. This new method of generating virtual catchments therefore offers significant research potential to identify the impacts of the physical characteristics of catchments on hydro-sedimentary dynamics and responses