A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility of robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy using a home-made surgical glove port system. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy between January 2010 and July 2010. All surgical procedures were performed through a single 3-4-cm umbilical incision, with a multi-channel system consisting of a wound retractor, a surgical glove, and two 10/12-mm and two 8 mm trocars. RESULTS: Seven patients were treated with robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy. Procedures included total hysterectomy due to benign gynecological disease (n=5), extra-fascial hysterectomy due to carcinoma in situ of the cervix (n=1), and radical hysterectomy due to cervical cancer IB1 (n=1). The median total operative time was 109 minutes (range, 105 to 311 minutes), the median blood loss was 100 mL (range, 10 to 750 mL), and the median weight of the resected uteri was 200 g (range, 40 to 310 g). One benign case was converted to 3-port robotic surgery due to severe pelvic adhesions, and no post-operative complications occurred. CONCLUSION: Robotic single-port transumbilical total hysterectomy is technically feasible in selected patients with gynecological disease. Robotics may enhance surgical skills during single-port transumbilical hysterectomy, especially in patients with gynecologic cancers.ope

The porin and the permeating antibiotic: A selective diffusion barrier in gram-negative bacteria

Gram-negative bacteria are responsible for a large proportion of antibiotic resistant bacterial diseases. These bacteria have a complex cell envelope that comprises an outer membrane and an inner membrane that delimit the periplasm. The outer membrane contains various protein channels, called porins, which are involved in the influx of various compounds, including several classes of antibiotics. Bacterial adaptation to reduce influx through porins is an increasing problem worldwide that contributes, together with efflux systems, to the emergence and dissemination of antibiotic resistance. An exciting challenge is to decipher the genetic and molecular basis of membrane impermeability as a bacterial resistance mechanism. This Review outlines the bacterial response towards antibiotic stress on altered membrane permeability and discusses recent advances in molecular approaches that are improving our knowledge of the physico-chemical parameters that govern the translocation of antibiotics through porin channel

The development of computational biology in South Africa: successes achieved and lessons learnt

Bioinformatics is now a critical skill in many research and commercial environments as biological data are increasing in both size and complexity. South African researchers recognized this need in the mid-1990s and responded by working with the government as well as international bodies to develop initiatives to build bioinformatics capacity in the country. Significant injections of support from these bodies provided a springboard for the establishment of computational biology units at multiple universities throughout the country, which took on teaching, basic research and support roles. Several challenges were encountered, for example with unreliability of funding, lack of skills, and lack of infrastructure. However, the bioinformatics community worked together to overcome these, and South Africa is now arguably the leading country in bioinformatics on the African continent. Here we discuss how the discipline developed in the country, highlighting the challenges, successes, and lessons learnt

The Hubbard model within the equations of motion approach

The Hubbard model has a special role in Condensed Matter Theory as it is considered as the simplest Hamiltonian model one can write in order to describe anomalous physical properties of some class of real materials. Unfortunately, this model is not exactly solved except for some limits and therefore one should resort to analytical methods, like the Equations of Motion Approach, or to numerical techniques in order to attain a description of its relevant features in the whole range of physical parameters (interaction, filling and temperature). In this manuscript, the Composite Operator Method, which exploits the above mentioned analytical technique, is presented and systematically applied in order to get information about the behavior of all relevant properties of the model (local, thermodynamic, single- and two- particle ones) in comparison with many other analytical techniques, the above cited known limits and numerical simulations. Within this approach, the Hubbard model is shown to be also capable to describe some anomalous behaviors of the cuprate superconductors.Comment: 232 pages, more than 300 figures, more than 500 reference

Granger Causality Analysis of Steady-State Electroencephalographic Signals during Propofol-Induced Anaesthesia

Changes in conscious level have been associated with changes in dynamical integration and segregation among distributed brain regions. Recent theoretical developments emphasize changes in directed functional (i.e., causal) connectivity as reflected in quantities such as ‘integrated information’ and ‘causal density’. Here we develop and illustrate a rigorous methodology for assessing causal connectivity from electroencephalographic (EEG) signals using Granger causality (GC). Our method addresses the challenges of non-stationarity and bias by dividing data into short segments and applying permutation analysis. We apply the method to EEG data obtained from subjects undergoing propofol-induced anaesthesia, with signals source-localized to the anterior and posterior cingulate cortices. We found significant increases in bidirectional GC in most subjects during loss-of-consciousness, especially in the beta and gamma frequency ranges. Corroborating a previous analysis we also found increases in synchrony in these ranges; importantly, the Granger causality analysis showed higher inter-subject consistency than the synchrony analysis. Finally, we validate our method using simulated data generated from a model for which GC values can be analytically derived. In summary, our findings advance the methodology of Granger causality analysis of EEG data and carry implications for integrated information and causal density theories of consciousness

The Effect of Tuberculosis on Mortality in HIV Positive People: A Meta-Analysis

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death in people living with HIV (PLWH). We conducted a meta analysis to assess the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in people living with HIV. Meta-analysis of cohort studies assessing the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH. To identify eligible studies we systematically searched electronic databases (until December 2008), performed manual searches of citations from relevant articles, and reviewed conference proceedings. Multivariate hazard ratios (HR) of mortality in PLWH with and without tuberculosis, estimated in individual cohort studies, were pooled using random effect weighting according to "Der Simonian Laird method" if the p-value of the heterogeneity test was <0.05. Fifteen cohort studies were systematically retrieved. Pooled overall analysis of these 15 studies estimating the effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH showed a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.8 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4-2.3). Subanalysis of 8 studies in which the cohort was not exposed to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) showed an HR of 2.6 (95% CI: 1.8-3.6). Subanalysis of 6 studies showed that tuberculosis did not show an effect on mortality in PLWH exposed to HAART: HR 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9-1.3). These results provide an indication of the magnitude of benefit to an individual that could have been expected if tuberculosis had been prevented. It emphasizes the need for additional studies assessing the effect of preventing tuberculosis or early diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in PLWH on reducing mortality. Furthermore, the results of the subgroup analyses in cohorts largely exposed to HAART provide additional support to WHO's revised guidelines, which include promoting the initiation of HAART for PLWH co-infected with tuberculosis. The causal effect of tuberculosis on mortality in PLWH exposed to HAART needs to be further evaluated once the results of more cohort studies become availabl

Genetic and Environmental Causes of Variation in Trait Resilience in Young People

The aim of this multi-informant twin study was to determine the relative role of genetic and environmental factors in explaining variation in trait resilience in adolescents. Participants were consenting families (N = 2,638 twins in 1,394 families), from seven national cohorts (age 12–18 years, both sexes) of monozygotic and dizygotic twins reared together. Questionnaire data on the adolescents’ Ego-resilience (ER89) was collected from mothers, fathers and twins, and analysed by means of multivariate genetic modelling. Variance in trait resilience was best represented in an ADE common pathways model with sex limitation. Variance in the latent psychometric resilience factor was largely explained by additive genetic factors (77% in boys, 70% in girls), with the remaining variance (23 and 30%) attributable to non-shared environmental factors. Additive genetic sources explained more than 50% of the informant specific variation in mothers and fathers scores. In twins, additive and non-additive genetic factors together explained 40% and non-shared environmental factor the remaining 60% of variation. In the mothers’ scores, the additive genetic effect was larger for boys than for girls. The non-additive genetic factor found in the twins’ self ratings was larger in boys than in girls. The remaining sex differences in the specific factors were small. Trait resilience is largely genetically determined. Estimates based on several informants rather than single informants approaches are recommended

A national cross-sectional study among drug-users in France: epidemiology of HCV and highlight on practical and statistical aspects of the design

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiology of HCV infection among drug users (DUs) has been widely studied. Prevalence and sociobehavioural data among DUs are therefore available in most countries but no study has taken into account in the sampling weights one important aspect of the way of life of DUs, namely that they can use one or more specialized services during the study period. In 2004–2005, we conducted a national seroepidemiologic survey of DUs, based on a random sampling design using the Generalised Weight Share Method (GWSM) and on blood testing.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional multicenter survey was done among DUs having injected or snorted drugs at least once in their life. We conducted a two stage random survey of DUs selected to represent the diversity of drug use. The fact that DUs can use more than one structure during the study period has an impact on their inclusion probabilities. To calculate a correct sampling weight, we used the GWSM. A sociobehavioral questionnaire was administered by interviewers. Selected DUs were asked to self-collect a fingerprick blood sample on blotting paper.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of all DUs selected, 1462 (75%) accepted to participate. HCV seroprevalence was 59.8% [95% CI: 50.7–68.3]. Of DUs under 30 years, 28% were HCV seropositive. Of HCV-infected DUs, 27% were unaware of their status. In the month prior to interview, 13% of DUs shared a syringe, 38% other injection parapharnelia and 81% shared a crack pipe. In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with HCV seropositivity were age over 30, HIV seropositivity, having ever injected drugs, opiate substitution treatment (OST), crack use, and precarious housing.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This is the first time that blood testing combined to GWSM is applied to a DUs population, which improve the estimate of HCV prevalence. HCV seroprevalence is high, indeed by the youngest DUs. And a large proportion of DUs are not aware of their status. Our multivariate analysis identifies risk factors such as crack consumption and unstable housing.</p