Certified Roundoff Error Bounds Using Semidefinite Programming.

Roundoff errors cannot be avoided when implementing numerical programs with finite precision. The ability to reason about rounding is especially important if one wants to explore a range of potential representations, for instance for FPGAs or custom hardware implementation. This problem becomes challenging when the program does not employ solely linear operations as non-linearities are inherent to many interesting computational problems in real-world applications. Existing solutions to reasoning are limited in the presence of nonlinear correlations between variables, leading to either imprecise bounds or high analysis time. Furthermore, while it is easy to implement a straightforward method such as interval arithmetic, sophisticated techniques are less straightforward to implement in a formal setting. Thus there is a need for methods which output certificates that can be formally validated inside a proof assistant. We present a framework to provide upper bounds on absolute roundoff errors. This framework is based on optimization techniques employing semidefinite programming and sums of squares certificates, which can be formally checked inside the Coq theorem prover. Our tool covers a wide range of nonlinear programs, including polynomials and transcendental operations as well as conditional statements. We illustrate the efficiency and precision of this tool on non-trivial programs coming from biology, optimization and space control. Our tool produces more precise error bounds for 37 percent of all programs and yields better performance in 73 percent of all programs

The impact of ambient temperature on mortality among the urban population in Skopje, Macedonia during the period 1996–2000

BACKGROUND: This study assesses the relationship between daily numbers of deaths and variations in ambient temperature within the city of Skopje, R. Macedonia. METHODS: The daily number of deaths from all causes, during the period 1996–2000, as well as those deaths from cardiovascular diseases, occurring within the city of Skopje were related to the average daily temperature on the same day using Multiple Regression statistical analyses. Temperature was measured within the regression model as two complementary variables: 'Warm' and 'Cold'. Excess winter mortality was calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March) minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year). RESULTS: In this study the average daily total of deaths was 7% and 13% greater in the cold when compared to the whole period and warm period respectively. The same relationship was noticed for deaths caused by cardiovascular diseases. The Regression Beta Coefficient (b = -0.19) for the total mortality as a function of the temperature in Skopje during the period 1996–2000 was statistically significant with negative connotation as was the circulatory mortality due to average temperature (statistically significant regression Beta coefficient (b = -0.24)). A measure of this increase is provided, on an annual basis, in the form of the excess winter mortality figure. CONCLUSION: Mortality with in the city of Skopje displayed a marked seasonality, with peaks in the winter and relative troughs in the summer

Repetitive arm functional tasks after stroke (RAFTAS): a pilot randomised controlled trial

Background Repetitive functional task practise (RFTP) is a promising treatment to improve upper limb recovery following stroke. We report the findings of a study to determine the feasibility of a multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate this intervention. Methods A pilot randomised controlled trial was conducted. Patients with new reduced upper limb function were recruited within 14 days of acute stroke from three stroke units in North East England. Participants were randomised to receive a four week upper limb RFTP therapy programme consisting of goal setting, independent activity practise, and twice weekly therapy reviews in addition to usual post stroke rehabilitation, or usual post stroke rehabilitation. The recruitment rate; adherence to the RFTP therapy programme; usual post stroke rehabilitation received; attrition rate; data quality; success of outcome assessor blinding; adverse events; and the views of study participants and therapists about the intervention were recorded. Results Fifty five eligible patients were identified, 4-6% of patients screened at each site. Twenty four patients participated in the pilot study. Two of the three study sites met the recruitment target of 1-2 participants per month. The median number of face to face therapy sessions received was 6 [IQR 3-8]. The median number of daily repetitions of activities recorded was 80 [IQR 39-80]. Data about usual post stroke rehabilitation were available for 18/24 (75%). Outcome data were available for 22/24 (92%) at one month and 20/24 (83%) at three months. Outcome assessors were unblinded to participant group allocation for 11/22 (50%) at one month and 6/20 (30%) at three months. Four adverse events were considered serious as they resulted in hospitalisation. None were related to study treatment. Feedback from patients and local NHS therapists about the RFTP programme was mainly positive. Conclusions A multi-centre randomised controlled trial to evaluate an upper limb RFTP therapy programme provided early after stroke is feasible and acceptable to patients and therapists, but there are issues which needed to be addressed when designing a Phase III study. A Phase III study will need to monitor and report not only recruitment and attrition but also adherence to the intervention, usual post stroke rehabilitation received, and outcome assessor blinding

Influenza vaccination coverage rates in five European countries during season 2006/07 and trends over six consecutive seasons

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objectives of the survey were to identify the level of influenza vaccination coverage in five European countries between 2001 and 2007, to understand the drivers and barriers to vaccination, to assess vaccination intentions for the winter 2007/08 as well as major encouraging factors for vaccination.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Between 2001 and 2007, representative household surveys were performed with telephone or mailed (France) interviews of individuals aged 14 and above. The questionnaire used in the UK, Germany, Italy, France and Spain was essentially the same in all seasons. The data were subsequently pooled. Four target groups were defined for the analysis: 1) persons aged 65 years and over; 2) persons working in the medical field; 3) chronically ill persons and 4) combined target group composed of individuals belonging to one or more of the previous groups 1, 2 or 3.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 2006/07, vaccination coverage was, 25.0% in UK, 27.4% in Germany, 21.8% in Spain, 24.2% in France and 24.4% in Italy. During six influenza seasons (2001–2007), vaccination coverage showed a slight positive trend in the five countries (p ≤ 0.0001). In the elderly (≥ 65 years), across all countries, no significant trend was seen; the vaccination rate decreased non-significantly from a peak of 64.2% in season 2005/06 to 61.1% in season 2006/07. The most frequent reason for getting vaccinated was a recommendation by the family doctor or nurse (51%), and this was also perceived as the major encouraging factor for vaccination (61%). The main reason for not getting vaccinated was feeling unlikely to catch the flu (36%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the UK, Germany and Spain, influenza vaccination coverage rates in season 2006/07 dropped slightly compared to the previous season. However, a trend of increasing vaccination coverage was observed from 2001/02 to 2006/07 across Europe. The family doctor is the major source of encouragement for individuals getting vaccinated. Efforts to overcome the barriers to vaccination need to be put in place to reach the WHO objective of 75% coverage in the elderly by 2010. This is a major challenge to be faced by governments, healthcare workers and healthcare organisations.</p

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words

Inflammation in sputum relates to progression of disease in subjects with COPD: a prospective descriptive study

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is considered to be of primary pathogenic importance in COPD but the evidence on which current understanding is based does not distinguish between cause and effect, and no single mechanism can account for the complex pathology. We performed a prospective longitudinal study of subjects with COPD that related markers of sputum inflammation at baseline to subsequent disease progression. METHODS: A cohort of 56 patients with chronic bronchitis was characterized in the stable state at baseline and after an interval of four years, using physiological measures and CT densitometry. Sputum markers of airway inflammation were quantified at baseline from spontaneously produced sputum in a sub-group (n = 38), and inflammation severity was related to subsequent disease progression. RESULTS: Physiological and CT measures indicated disease progression in the whole group. In the sub-group, sputum myeloperoxidase correlated with decline in FEV(1 )(rs = -0.344, p = 0.019, n = 37). LTB4 and albumin leakage correlated with TLCO decline (rs = -0.310, p = 0.033, rs = -0.401, p = 0.008, respectively, n = 35) and IL-8 correlated with progression of lung densitometric indices (rs = -0.464, p = 0.005, n = 38). CONCLUSION: The data support a principal causative role for neutrophilic inflammation in the pathogenesis of COPD and suggest that the measurement of sputum inflammatory markers may have a predictive role in clinical practice

The impact of early emergency department allied health intervention on admission rates in older people: a non-randomized clinical study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study sought to determine whether early allied health intervention by a dedicated Emergency Department (ED) based team, occurring before or in parallel with medical assessment, reduces hospital admission rates amongst older patients presenting with one of ten index problems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A prospective non-randomized trial in patients aged sixty five and over, conducted in two Australian hospital EDs. Intervention group patients, receiving early comprehensive allied health input, were compared to patients that received no allied health assessment. Propensity score matching was used to compare the two groups due to the non-randomized nature of the study. The primary outcome was admission to an inpatient hospital bed from the ED.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of five thousand two hundred and sixty five patients in the trial, 3165 were in the intervention group. The admission rate in the intervention group was 72.0% compared to 74.4% in the control group. Using propensity score probabilities of being assigned to either group in a conditional logistic regression model, this difference was of borderline statistical significance (<it>p </it>= 0.046, OR 0.88 (0.76-1.00)). On subgroup analysis the admission rate in patients with musculoskeletal symptoms and angina pectoris was less for those who received allied health intervention versus those who did not. This difference was significant.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Early allied health intervention in the ED has a significant but modest impact on admission rates in older patients. The effect appears to be limited to a small number of common presenting problems.</p