47 research outputs found
Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A GISS modelE study
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.We investigate the issue of "dangerous human-made interference with climate" using simulations with GISS modelE driven by measured or estimated forcings for 1880-2003 and extended to 2100 for IPCC greenhouse gas scenarios as well as the 'alternative' scenario of Hansen and Sato. Identification of 'dangerous' effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1 degree C above the level in 2000 has effects that may be highly disruptive. The alternative scenario, with peak added forcing ~1.5 W/m2 in 2100, keeps further global warming under 1 degree C if climate sensitivity is \~3 degrees C or less for doubled CO2. We discuss three specific sub-global topics: Arctic climate change, tropical storm intensification, and ice sheet stability. Growth of non-CO2 forcings has slowed in recent years, but CO2 emissions are now surging well above the alternative scenario. Prompt actions to slow CO2 emissions and decrease non-CO2 forcings are needed to achieve the low forcing of the alternative scenario
Drug Resistance in Eukaryotic Microorganisms
Eukaryotic microbial pathogens are major contributors to illness and death globally. Although much of their impact can be controlled by drug therapy as with prokaryotic microorganisms, the emergence of drug resistance has threatened these treatment efforts. Here, we discuss the challenges posed by eukaryotic microbial pathogens and how these are similar to, or differ from, the challenges of prokaryotic antibiotic resistance. The therapies used for several major eukaryotic microorganisms are then detailed, and the mechanisms that they have evolved to overcome these therapies are described. The rapid emergence of resistance and the restricted pipeline of new drug therapies pose considerable risks to global health and are particularly acute in the developing world. Nonetheless, we detail how the integration of new technology, biological understanding, epidemiology and evolutionary analysis can help sustain existing therapies, anticipate the emergence of resistance or optimize the deployment of new therapies
Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE
We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten
measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is
carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms
acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each
forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble
members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between
observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies,
inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there
are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is
sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate
change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the
1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of
improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested.
Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like
variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the
Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. The greatest
uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of
anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds.Comment: 44 pages; 19 figures; Final text accepted by Climate Dynamic