Thinking Tracks for Integrated Systems Design

The paper investigates systems thinking and systems engineering. After a short literature review, the paper presents, as a means for systems thinking, twelve thinking tracks. The tracks can be used as creativity starter, checklist, and as means to investigate effects of design decisions taken early in the process. Tracks include thinking about time, risk and safety, and different types of life-cycles. The thinking tracks are based on literature, teaching experience and practice as a system designer. By using the tracks a more complete picture of the system under design, the issue to be solved, the context, stakeholders and the rest of the world is created

Dynamical Mean-Field Theory of Electron-Phonon Interactions in Correlated Systems: Application to Isotope Effects on Electronic Properties

We use a recently developed formalism (combining an adiabatic expansion and dynamical mean-field theory) to obtain expressions for isotope effects on electronic properties in correlated systems. As an example we calculate the isotope effect on electron effective mass for the Holstein model as a function of electron-phonon interaction strength and doping. Our systematic expansion generates diagrams neglected in previous studies, which turn out to give the dominant contributions. The isotope effect is small unless the system is near a lattice instability. We compare this to experiment.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; added discussion of isotope effect away from half fillin

Exploring Probation Supervision Compliance in the Netherlands

Security and Global Affair

Quantum tomography of mesoscopic superpositions of radiation states

We show the feasibility of a tomographic reconstruction of Schr\"{o}dinger cat states generated according to the scheme proposed by S. Song, C.M. Caves and B. Yurke [Phys. Rev. A 41, 5261 (1990)]. We present a technique that tolerates realistic values for quantum efficiency at photodetectors. The measurement can be achieved by a standard experimental setup.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett.; 4 pages including 6 ps figure

The emergence of property rights enforcement in early trade : A behavioral model without reputational effects

Original article can be found at: http://www.sciencedirect.com/ Copyright ElsevierThe present article focuses on the conditions that allow governments to increase property rights protection because they expect enough income from such action. We develop a behavioral explanation, according to which the answer lies in the growth in the importance, size and wealth of merchant guilds in the medieval era in Western Europe as well as a somewhat surprising effect of volatile price structures. We add to prior research by showing that even uncoordinated embargo pressures among multiple guilds could get medieval rulers to offer high levels of property rights protection. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

A flexible approach to parametric inference in nonlinear time series models

Many structural break and regime-switching models have been used with macroeconomic and …nancial data. In this paper, we develop an extremely flexible parametric model which can accommodate virtually any of these speci…cations and does so in a simple way which allows for straightforward Bayesian inference. The basic idea underlying our model is that it adds two simple concepts to a standard state space framework. These ideas are ordering and distance. By ordering the data in various ways, we can accommodate a wide variety of nonlinear time series models, including those with regime-switching and structural breaks. By allowing the state equation variances to depend on the distance between observations, the parameters can evolve in a wide variety of ways, allowing for everything from models exhibiting abrupt change (e.g. threshold autoregressive models or standard structural break models) to those which allow for a gradual evolution of parameters (e.g. smooth transition autoregressive models or time varying parameter models). We show how our model will (approximately) nest virtually every popular model in the regime-switching and structural break literatures. Bayesian econometric methods for inference in this model are developed. Because we stay within a state space framework, these methods are relatively straightforward, drawing on the existing literature. We use arti…cial data to show the advantages of our approach, before providing two empirical illustrations involving the modeling of real GDP growth

Modelling habitat preference and estimating the spatial distribution of Australian Sea Lions (Neophoca cinerea); "A first exploration "

Managing the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) population and mitigating its interactions with commercial fisheries, requires an understanding of their spatial distribution and habitat preference at sea. Numerous wildlife telemetry devices have been attached to individual seals from different colonies, providing a detailed insight into there movement and activities. However, as data are only available from some individuals from 16 of 40 colonies in South Australia, these data represents only a small proportion of the population. Moreover, some colonies are poorly represented. To estimate the spatial distribution of the entire South Australian population, one can first investigate why individuals visit certain places and use this information to predict the spatial distribution for other regions lacking data. In this study we fit Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) to wildlife telemetry data collected from adult female Australian sea lions to investigate the species’ habitat preference for the variables distance to the colony, depth and slope. The results show that in general they have a higher preference for shallow areas, places close to the colony and a steep slope, but they also display large individual variability. Preference for these variables does not seem to differ between individuals of different sizes. In some of the most western colonies, some individuals seem to spend more time further away from the colony, but apart from this, there is no apparent effect of the longitudinal capture position on preference. The predicted spatial distribution is largely driven by the distance from the departure colony and the actual distribution of individuals among the different colonies. Although depth and slope does seem to effect their distribution to some extent, the most important variables that explain fine-scale foraging activities at-sea are probably missing. Future studies using GPS transmitters attached to animals, that yield high resolution locations and more detailed environmental data, in combination with the analytical technique presented here, should provide more insight there foraging decisions. This should eventually also improve the spatial prediction of the population as a whole

Multiple output production with undesirable outputs : an application to nitrogen surplus in agriculture

Many production processes yield both good outputs and undesirable ones (e.g., pollutants). In this article we develop a generalization of a stochastic frontier model that is appropriate for such technologies. We discuss efficiency analysis and, in particular, define technical and environmental efficiency in the context of our model. We develop methods for carrying out Bayesian inference and apply them to a panel data set of Dutch dairy farms, where excess nitrogen production constitutes an important environmental problem