The incidence and risk factors for new onset atrial fibrillation in the PROSPER study

Aims Atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in older people. It associates with reduced exercise capacity, increased risk of stroke, and mortality. We aimed to determine retrospectively whether pravastatin reduces the incidence of AF and whether any electrocardiographic measures or clinical conditions might be risk factors for its development. Methods and results The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) was a randomized, double-blind controlled trial that recruited 5804 individuals aged 70-82 years with a history of, or risk factors for, vascular disease. A total of 2891 were allocated to pravastatin and 2913 to placebo; mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Electrocardiograms (ECGs), which were recorded at baseline, annually thereafter, and at run-out, were processed by computer and reviewed manually. In all, 264 of 2912 (9.1%) of the placebo group and 283 of 2888 (9.8%) of the pravastatin-treated group developed AF [hazard ratio 1.08 (0.92,1.28), P = 0.35)]. Multivariate analysis showed that PR and QTc intervals, age, left ventricular hypertrophy, and ST-T abnormalities were related to development of AF after adjustment for many variables including alcohol consumption, which itself was univariately predictive of developing AF. Previous myocardial infarction on the ECG was not a risk factor. A history of vascular disease was strongly linked with developing AF but not diabetes and hypertension. Conclusion Pravastatin does not reduce the incidence of AF in older people at risk of vascular disease, at least in the short-medium term. Risk factors for AF include older age, prolongation of PR or QTc intervals, left ventricular hypertrophy, and ST-T abnormalities on the EC

Chemical-looping combustion - a thermodynamic study

Published versio

Parent Stars of Extrasolar Planets. X. Lithium Abundances and vsini Revisited

We determine Li abundances and vsini values from new spectra of 53 stars with Doppler-detected planets not included in our previous papers in this series. We also examine two sets of stars without detected planets, which together serve as our comparison sample. Using the method of comparison of Li abundances and vsini values between two sets of stars we introduced in Gonzalez (2008), we confirm that these two quantities are smaller among stars with planets compared to stars without detected planets near the solar temperature. The transition from low to high Li abundance among SWPs occurs near 5850 K, a revision of about 50 K from our previous determination. The transition from low to high vsini occurs near 6000 K, but this temperature is not as well constrained.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRAS; 14 pages, 13 figures, 3 table

Radiative forcing of climate: the historical evolution of the radiative forcing concept, the forcing agents and their quantification, and applications

We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application and utilization of “radiative forcing (RF, see e.g., IPCC, 1990)” of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and long wave radiation were developed through the 19th and 20th centuries, and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to the Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that the Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the 19th century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the 20th Century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report, National Research Council, 1979). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO (1986) and IPCC (1990) international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system has proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change, and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms, have grown. This has led to the current situation where “Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF, e.g., IPCC, 2013)” is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature e.g., precipitation. The forcing-response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half-century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m-2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m-2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically-significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth System science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system

Evaluation of biomass burning aerosols in the HadGEM3 climate model with observations from the SAMBBA field campaign

We present observations of biomass burning aerosol from the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) and other measurement campaigns, and use these to evaluate the representation of biomass burning aerosol properties and processes in a state-of-the-art climate model. The evaluation includes detailed comparisons with aircraft and ground data, along with remote sensing observations from MODIS and AERONET. We demonstrate several improvements to aerosol properties following the implementation of the Global Model for Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode) modal aerosol scheme in the HadGEM3 climate model. This predicts the particle size distribution, composition, and optical properties, giving increased accuracy in the representation of aerosol properties and physical–chemical processes over the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Scheme for Simulations in Climate Models (CLASSIC) bulk aerosol scheme previously used in HadGEM2. Although both models give similar regional distributions of carbonaceous aerosol mass and aerosol optical depth (AOD), GLOMAP-mode is better able to capture the observed size distribution, single scattering albedo, and Ångström exponent across different tropical biomass burning source regions. Both aerosol schemes overestimate the uptake of water compared to recent observations, CLASSIC more so than GLOMAP-mode, leading to a likely overestimation of aerosol scattering, AOD, and single scattering albedo at high relative humidity. Observed aerosol vertical distributions were well captured when biomass burning aerosol emissions were injected uniformly from the surface to 3 km. Finally, good agreement between observed and modelled AOD was gained only after scaling up GFED3 emissions by a factor of 1.6 for CLASSIC and 2.0 for GLOMAP-mode. We attribute this difference in scaling factor mainly to different assumptions for the water uptake and growth of aerosol mass during ageing via oxidation and condensation of organics. We also note that similar agreement with observed AOD could have been achieved with lower scaling factors if the ratio of organic carbon to primary organic matter was increased in the models toward the upper range of observed values. Improved knowledge from measurements is required to reduce uncertainties in emission ratios for black carbon and organic carbon, and the ratio of organic carbon to primary organic matter for primary emissions from biomass burning

Airborne measurements of trace gases and aerosols over the London metropolitan region

The Emissions around the M25 motorway (EM25) campaign took place over the megacity of London in the United Kingdom in June 2009 with the aim of characterising trace gas and aerosol composition and properties entering and emitted from the urban region. It featured two mobile platforms, the UK BAe-146 Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) research aircraft and a ground-based mobile lidar van, both travelling in circuits around London, roughly following the path of the M25 motorway circling the city. We present an overview of findings from the project, which took place during typical UK summertime pollution conditions. Emission ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to acetylene and carbon monoxide emitted from the London region were consistent with measurements in and downwind of other large urban areas and indicated traffic and associated fuel evaporation were major sources. Sub-micron aerosol composition was dominated by secondary species including sulphate (24% of sub-micron mass in the London plume and 29% in the non-plume regional aerosol), nitrate (24% plume; 20% regional) and organic aerosol (29% plume; 31% regional). The primary sub-micron aerosol emissions from London were minor compared to the larger regional background, with only limited increases in aerosol mass in the urban plume compared to the background (~12% mass increase on average). Black carbon mass was the major exception and more than doubled in the urban plume, leading to a decrease in the single scattering albedo from 0.91 in the regional aerosol to 0.86 in the London plume, on average. Our observations indicated that regional aerosol plays a major role on aerosol concentrations around London, at least during typical summertime conditions, meaning future efforts to reduce PM levels in London must account for regional as well as local aerosol sources

Evolution of the Velocity Ellipsoids in the Thin Disk of the Galaxy and the Radial Migration of Stars

Data from the revised Geneva--Copenhagen catalog are used to study the influence of radial migration of stars on the age dependences of parameters of the velocity ellipsoids for nearby stars in the thin disk of the Galaxy, assuming that the mean radii of the stellar orbits remain constant. It is demonstrated that precisely the radial migration of stars, together with the negative metallicity gradient in the thin disk,are responsible for the observed negative correlation between the metallicities and angular momenta of nearby stars, while the angular momenta of stars that were born at the same Galactocentric distances do not depend on either age or metallicity. (abridged)Comment: Astronomy Reports, Vol. 86 No. 9, P.1117-1126 (2009

Simulation of Stellar Objects in SDSS Color Space

We present a simulation of the spatial, luminosity and spectral distributions of four types of stellar objects. We simulate: (1) Galactic stars, based on a Galactic structure model, a stellar population synthesis model, stellar isochrones, and stellar spectral libraries; (2) white dwarfs, based on model atmospheres, the observed luminosity function, mass distribution, and Galactic distribution of white dwarfs; (3) quasars, based on their observed luminosity function and its evolution, and models of emission and absorption spectra of quasars; and (4) compact emission line galaxies, based on the observed distribution of their spectral properties and sizes. The results are presented in the color system of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), with realistic photometric error and Galactic extinction. The simulated colors of stars and quasars are compared with observations in the SDSS system and show good agreement. The stellar simulation can be used as a tool to analyze star counts and constrain models of Galactic structure, as well as to identify stars with unusual colors. The simulation can also be used to establish the quasar target selection algorithm for the SDSS.Comment: 52 pages, 22 figures, to appear in AJ; simulated catalogs available at http://www.astro.princeton.edu/~fan/sdss_simu.htm