GIS-assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy. II: Velocity and Dynamic Pressure

The velocity and dynamic pressure of debris flows are critical determinants of the impact of these natural phenomena on infrastructure. Therefore, the prediction of these parameters is critical for hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. We present here an approach to predict the velocity of debris flows on the basis of the energy line concept. First, we obtained empirically and field-based estimates of debris flow peak discharge, mean velocity at peak discharge and velocity, at channel bends and within the fans of ten of the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy. We used this data to calibrate regression models that enable the prediction of velocity as a function of the vertical distance between the energy line and the surface. Despite the complexity in morphology and behaviour of these flows, the statistical fits were good and the debris flow velocities can be predicted with an associated uncertainty of less than 30% and less than 3 m s-1. We wrote code in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) that runs within ArcGIS® to implement the results of these calibrations and enable the automatic production of velocity and dynamic pressure maps. The collected data and resulting empirical models constitute a realistic basis for more complex numerical modelling. In addition, the GIS implementation constitutes a useful decision-support tool for real-time hazard mitigation. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

GIS-assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy. Part I: Maximum run-out

Based on the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy, this paper presents an approach to simulate debris flow maximum run-out. On the basis of the flow source areas and an average thickness of 1.2 m of the scarps, we estimated debris flow volumes of the order of 104 and 105 m3. Flow mobility ratios ( H/L) derived from the x,y,z coordinates of the lower-most limit of the source areas (i.e. apex of the alluvial fan) and the distal limit of the flows ranged between 0.27 and 0.09. We performed regression analyses that showed a good correlation between the estimated flow volumes and mobility ratios. This paper presents a methodology for predicting maximum run-out of future debris flow events, based on the developed empirical relationship. We implemented the equation that resulted from the calibration as a set of GIS-macros written in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and running within ArcGIS. We carried out sensitivity analyses and observed that hazard mapping with this methodology should attempt to delineate hazard zones with a minimum horizontal resolution of 0.4 km. The developed procedure enables the rapid delineation of debris flow maximum extent within reasonable levels of uncertainty, it incorporates sensitivities and it facilitates hazard assessments via graphic-user interfaces and with modest computing resources

Residential building and occupant vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents in explosive eruptions

International audienceA major hazard during the eruption of explosive volcanoes is the formation of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Casualties and physical building damage from PDCs are caused by the temperature, pressure, and particle load of the flow. This paper examines the vulnerability of buildings and occupants to the forces imposed by PDCs along with associated infiltration of PDC particle and gas mixtures into an intact building. New studies are presented of building and occupant vulnerability with respect to temperature, pressure, and ash concentration. Initial mitigation recommendations are provided

GIS-assisted modelling for debris flow hazard assessment based on the events of May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy. Part II: Velocity and Dynamic Pressure

The velocity and dynamic pressure of debris flows are critical determinants of the impact of these natural phenomena on infrastructure. Therefore, the prediction of these parameters is critical for haz¬ard assessment and vulnerability analysis. We present here an approach to predict the velocity of de¬bris flows on the basis of the energy line concept. First, we obtained empirically- and field-based esti¬mates of debris flow peak discharge, mean velocity at peak discharge and velocity at channel bends and within the fans of ten of the debris flow events that occurred in May 1998 in the area of Sarno, Southern Italy. We used this data to calibrate regression models that enable the prediction of velocity as a function of the vertical distance between the energy line and the surface. Despite the complexity in morphology and behaviour of these flows, the statistical fits were good and the debris flow veloci¬ties can be predicted with an associated uncertainty of < 30% and < 3 m s-1. We wrote code in Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) that runs within ArcGIS ® to implement the results of these calibrations and enable the automatic production of velocity and dynamic pressure maps. The collected data and resulting empirical models constitute a realistic basis for more complex numerical modelling. In addi¬tion, the GIS-implementation constitutes a useful decision-support tool for real-time hazard mitigatio

Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions

A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This impact model is based on volcanological analyses of the potential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineering analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residential buildings in four European locations threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, inputs to the model are population data, building characteristics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047). </p><p style='line-height: 20px;'>&nbsp;</p

Hydroxychloroquine is associated with a lower risk of polyautoimmunity: data from the RELESSER Registry

OBJECTIVES: This article estimates the frequency of polyautoimmunity and associated factors in a large retrospective cohort of patients with SLE. METHODS: RELESSER (Spanish Society of Rheumatology Lupus Registry) is a nationwide multicentre, hospital-based registry of SLE patients. This is a cross-sectional study. The main variable was polyautoimmunity, which was defined as the co-occurrence of SLE and another autoimmune disease, such as autoimmune thyroiditis, RA, scleroderma, inflammatory myopathy and MCTD. We also recorded the presence of multiple autoimmune syndrome, secondary SS, secondary APS and a family history of autoimmune disease. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate possible risk factors for polyautoimmunity. RESULTS: Of the 3679 patients who fulfilled the criteria for SLE, 502 (13.6%) had polyautoimmunity. The most frequent types were autoimmune thyroiditis (7.9%), other systemic autoimmune diseases (6.2%), secondary SS (14.1%) and secondary APS (13.7%). Multiple autoimmune syndrome accounted for 10.2% of all cases of polyautoimmunity. A family history was recorded in 11.8%. According to the multivariate analysis, the factors associated with polyautoimmunity were female sex [odds ratio (95% CI), 1.72 (1.07, 2.72)], RP [1.63 (1.29, 2.05)], interstitial lung disease [3.35 (1.84, 6.01)], Jaccoud arthropathy [1.92 (1.40, 2.63)], anti-Ro/SSA and/or anti-La/SSB autoantibodies [2.03 (1.55, 2.67)], anti-RNP antibodies [1.48 (1.16, 1.90)], MTX [1.67 (1.26, 2.18)] and antimalarial drugs [0.50 (0.38, 0.67)]. CONCLUSION: Patients with SLE frequently present polyautoimmunity. We observed clinical and analytical characteristics associated with polyautoimmunity. Our finding that antimalarial drugs protected against polyautoimmunity should be verified in future studies

The comparative responsiveness of Hospital Universitario Princesa Index and other composite indices for assessing rheumatoid arthritis activity

Objective To evaluate the responsiveness in terms of correlation of the Hospital Universitario La Princesa Index (HUPI) comparatively to the traditional composite indices used to assess disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and to compare the performance of HUPI-based response criteria with that of the EULAR response criteria. Methods Secondary data analysis from the following studies: ACT-RAY (clinical trial), PROAR (early RA cohort) and EMECAR (pre-biologic era long term RA cohort). Responsiveness was evaluated by: 1) comparing change from baseline (Delta) of HUPI with Delta in other scores by calculating correlation coefficients; 2) calculating standardised effect sizes. The accuracy of response by HUPI and by EULAR criteria was analyzed using linear regressions in which the dependent variable was change in global assessment by physician (Delta GDA-Phy). Results Delta HUPI correlation with change in all other indices ranged from 0.387 to 0.791); HUPI's standardized effect size was larger than those from the other indices in each database used. In ACT-RAY, depending on visit, between 65 and 80% of patients were equally classified by HUPI and EULAR response criteria. However, HUPI criteria were slightly more stringent, with higher percentage of patients classified as non-responder, especially at early visits. HUPI response criteria showed a slightly higher accuracy than EULAR response criteria when using Delta GDA-Phy as gold standard. Conclusion HUPI shows good responsiveness in terms of correlation in each studied scenario (clinical trial, early RA cohort, and established RA cohort). Response criteria by HUPI seem more stringent than EULAR''s

2ª auditoría de bienestar animal en la industria frigorífica del Uruguay.

Se auditaron 15 plantas frigoríficas exportadoras para evaluar las Buenas Prácticas Operativas (BPO) en Bienestar Animal, utilizando la metodología recomendada por el American Meat Institute y la Dra. Temple Grandin. Se compararon los resultados obtenidos con los de una Auditoria similar llevada a cabo en 2003. En términosgenerales, se observó una evolución favorable en cuanto al manejo de los animales en la Industria Frigorífica Exportadora Uruguaya. Summary: 15 export plants were audited to evaluate the Good Operating Practice (GOP) in Animal Welfare, using the methodology recommended by the American Meat Institute and by Dr. Temple Grandin.Results were compared with those of a similar audit carried out in 2003. In general terms, there was a favourable evolution regarding animal management in the Uruguayan Meat Exporting Industry