Contributions to twentieth century total column ozone change from halocarbons, tropospheric ozone precursors, and climate change

We investigate ozone changes from preindustrial times to the present using a chemistry-climate model. The influence of changes in physical climate, ozone-depleting substances, N2O, and tropospheric ozone precursors is estimated using equilibrium simulations with these different factors set at either preindustrial or present-day values. When these effects are combined, the entire decrease in total column ozone from preindustrial to present day is very small (–1.8 DU) in the global annual average, though with significant decreases in total column ozone over large parts of the Southern Hemisphere during austral spring and widespread increases in column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere during boreal summer. A significant contribution to the total ozone column change is the increase in lower stratospheric ozone associated with the increase in ozone precursors (5.9 DU). Also noteworthy is the near cancellation of the global average climate change effect on ozone (3.5 DU) by the increase in N2O (–3.9 DU)

Dynamical control of the mesosphere by orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is nudged toward reanalysis data up to 1 hPa is used to examine the impacts of parameterized orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD and NGWD) on the zonal-mean circulation of the mesosphere during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009 when there were two large stratospheric sudden warmings. The simulations are compared to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations of mesospheric temperature, carbon monoxide (CO) and derived zonal winds. The control simulation, which uses both OGWD and NGWD, is shown to be in good agreement with MLS. The impacts of OGWD and NGWD are assessed using simulations in which those sources of wave drag are removed. In the absence of OGWD the mesospheric zonal winds in the months preceding the warmings are too strong, causing increased mesospheric NGWD, which drives excessive downwelling, resulting in overly large lower mesospheric values of CO prior to the warming. NGWD is found to be most important following the warmings when the underlying westerlies are too weak to allow much vertical propagation of the orographic gravity waves to the mesosphere. NGWD is primarily responsible for driving the circulation that results in the descent of CO from the thermosphere following the warmings. Zonal mean mesospheric winds and temperatures in all simulations are shown to be strongly constrained by (i.e. slaved to) the stratosphere. Finally, it is demonstrated that the responses to OGWD and NGWD are non-additive due to their dependence and influence on the background winds and temperatures

The climate impact of past changes in halocarbons and CO2in the tropical UTLS region

A chemistry-climate model coupled to an ocean model is used to compare the climate impact of past (1960-2010) changes in concentrations of halocarbons with those of CO2 in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The halocarbon contribution to both upper troposphere warming and the associated increase in lower stratospheric upwelling is about 40% as large as that due to CO2. Trends in cold-point temperature and lower stratosphere water vapor are positive for both halocarbons and CO2, and are of about the same magnitude. Trends in lower stratosphere ozone are negative, due to the increased upwelling. These increases in water vapor and decreases in lower stratosphere ozone feed back on lower stratosphere temperature through radiative cooling. The radiative cooling from ozone is about a factor of two larger than that from water vapor in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, while water vapor dominates at heights above 50 hPa. For halocarbons this indirect radiative cooling more than offsets the direct radiative warming, and together with the adiabatic cooling accounts for the lack of a halocarbon-induced warming of the lower stratosphere. For CO2 the indirect cooling from increased water vapor and decreased ozone is of comparable magnitude to the direct warming from CO2 in the vicinity of the cold-point tropopause, and (together with the increased upwelling) lowers the height at which CO2 increases induce stratospheric cooling, thus explaining the relatively weak increase in cold-point temperature due to the CO2 increases

Impossible decision? An investigation of risk trade-offs in the intensive care unit

In the intensive care unit (ICU), clinicians must often make risk trade-offs on patient care. For example, on deciding whether to discharge a patient before they have fully recovered in order to create a bed for another, sicker, patient. When misjudged, these decisions can negatively influence patient outcomes: yet it can be difficult, if not impossible, for clinicians to evaluate with certainty the safest course of action. Using a vignette-based interview methodology, a naturalistic decision-making approach was utilised to study this phenomena. The decision preferences of ICU clinicians (n=24) for two common risk trade-off scenarios were investigated. Qualitative analysis revealed the sample of clinicians to reach different, and sometimes oppositional, decision preferences. These practice variations emerged from differing analyses of risk, how decisions were ‘framed’ (e.g. philosophies on care), past experiences, and perceptions of group and organisational norms. Implications for patient safety and clinical decision-making are discussed

Quantifying the contributions to stratospheric ozone changes from ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases

A state-of-the-art chemistry climate model coupled to a three-dimensional ocean model is used to produce three experiments, all seamlessly covering the period 1950–2100, forced by different combinations of long-lived Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) and Ozone Depleting Substances (ODSs). The experiments are designed to quantify the separate effects of GHGs and ODSs on the evolution of ozone, as well as the extent to which these effects are independent of each other, by alternately holding one set of these two forcings constant in combination with a third experiment where both ODSs and GHGs vary. We estimate that up to the year 2000 the net decrease in the column amount of ozone above 20 hPa is approximately 75% of the decrease that can be attributed to ODSs due to the offsetting effects of cooling by increased CO2. Over the 21st century, as ODSs decrease, continued cooling from CO2 is projected to account for more than 50% of the projected increase in ozone above 20 hPa. Changes in ozone below 20 hPa show a redistribution of ozone from tropical to extra-tropical latitudes with an increase in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In addition to a latitudinal redistribution of ozone, we find that the globally averaged column amount of ozone below 20 hPa decreases over the 21st century, which significantly mitigates the effect of upper stratospheric cooling on total column ozone. Analysis by linear regression shows that the recovery of ozone from the effects of ODSs generally follows the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine levels, with the exception of the lower polar stratosphere where recovery of ozone in the second half of the 21st century is slower than would be indicated by the decline in reactive chlorine and bromine concentrations. These results also reveal the degree to which GHGrelated effects mute the chemical effects of N2O on ozone in the standard future scenario used for the WMO Ozone Assessment. Increases in the residual circulation of the atmosphere and chemical effects from CO2 cooling more than halve the increase in reactive nitrogen in the mid to upper stratosphere that results from the specified increase in N2O between 1950 and 2100

Massively parallelizable list-mode reconstruction using a Monte Carlo-based elliptical Gaussian model

Purpose: A fully three-dimensional (3D) massively parallelizable list-mode ordered-subsets expectation-maximization (LM-OSEM) reconstruction algorithm has been developed for high-resolution PET cameras. System response probabilities are calculated online from a set of parameters derived from Monte Carlo simulations. The shape of a system response for a given line of response (LOR) has been shown to be asymmetrical around the LOR. This work has been focused on the development of efficient region-search techniques to sample the system response probabilities, which are suitable for asymmetric kernel models, including elliptical Gaussian models that allow for high accuracy and high parallelization efficiency. The novel region-search scheme using variable kernel models is applied in the proposed PET reconstruction algorithm...This work was partially supported by Spain’s Ministry of Science and Innovation through CDTI’s CENIT program (AMIT project) and INNPACTO (PRECISION project), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (PI09/91058 and PI09/91065), and Project Nos. TEC2010-21619-C04-03 and TEC2011-28972- C02-02, Comunidad de Madrid (ARTEMIS S2009/DPI- 1802), and the European Regional Development Funds (FEDER). CIBER-BBN is an initiative funded by the VI National R&D&i Plan 2008–2011, Iniciativa Ingenio 2010, Consolider Program, CIBER Actions, and finance by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III with assistance from the European Regional Development Fund.Publicad

EUV spectra of highly-charged ions W54+^{54+}-W63+^{63+} relevant to ITER diagnostics

We report the first measurements and detailed analysis of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectra (4 nm to 20 nm) of highly-charged tungsten ions W$^{54+}$ to W$^{63+}$ obtained with an electron beam ion trap (EBIT). Collisional-radiative modelling is used to identify strong electric-dipole and magnetic-dipole transitions in all ionization stages. These lines can be used for impurity transport studies and temperature diagnostics in fusion reactors, such as ITER. Identifications of prominent lines from several W ions were confirmed by measurement of isoelectronic EUV spectra of Hf, Ta, and Au. We also discuss the importance of charge exchange recombination for correct description of ionization balance in the EBIT plasma.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model that is coupled to an ocean is used to investigate the separate effects of climate change and ozone depletion on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere. This is achieved by performing three sets of simulations extending from 1960 to 2099: 1) greenhouse gases (GHGs) fixed at 1960 levels and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) varying in time, 2) ODSs fixed at 1960 levels and GHGs varying in time, and 3) both GHGs and ODSs varying in time. The response of various dynamical quantities to theGHGand ODS forcings is shown to be additive; that is, trends computed from the sum of the first two simulations are equal to trends from the third. Additivity is shown to hold for the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, the mass flux into and out of the stratosphere, and the latitudinally averaged wave drag in SH spring and summer, as well as for final warming dates. Ozone depletion and recovery causes seasonal changes in lower-stratosphere mass flux, with reduced polar downwelling in the past followed by increased downwelling in the future in SH spring, and the reverse in SH summer. These seasonal changes are attributed to changes in wave drag caused by ozone-induced changes in the zonal mean zonal winds. Climate change, on the other hand, causes a steady decrease in wave drag during SH spring, which delays the breakdown of the vortex, resulting in increased wave drag in summe

Note on Tests of the Factorization Hypothesis and the Determination of Meson Decay Constants

We discuss various tests of the factorization hypothesis making use of the close relationship between semi-leptonic and factorized nonleptonic decay amplitudes. It is pointed out that factorization leads to truely model-independent predictions for the ratio of nonleptonic to semi-leptonic decay rates, if in the nonleptonic decay a spin one meson of arbitrary mass or a pion take the place of the lepton pair. Where the decay constants of those mesons are known, these predictions represent ideal tests of the factorization hypothesis. In other cases they may be used to extract the decay constants. Currently available data on the decays $\bar B^0 \to D^+\pi^-,\, D^{*+}\pi^-,\, D^+\varrho^-,\, D^{*+}\varrho^-$ are shown to be in excellent agreement with the factorization results. A weighted average of the four independent values for the QCD coefficient $a_1$ extracted from the data gives $a_1=1.15\pm 0.06$ suggesting that it may be equal to the Wilson coefficient $c_1(\mu)$ evaluated at the scale $\mu = m_b$.Comment: (9 pages, ReVTeX, no figures), HD-THEP-92-3

Flux Tube Zero-Point Motion, Hadronic Charge Radii, and Hybrid Meson Production Cross Sections

Flux tube zero-point motion produces quark displacements transverse to the flux tube which make significant contributions to hadronic charge radii. In heavy quark systems, these contributions can be related by Bjorken's sum rule to the rates for semileptonic decay to hybrid mesons. This connection can be generalized to other leptoproduction processes, where transverse contributions to elastic form factor slopes are related to the cross sections for the production of the associated hybrid states. I identify the flux tube overlap integral responsible for these effects as the strong QCD analogue of the Sudakov form factor of perturbative QCD.Comment: 16 pages, revised to clarify some points and to improve and correct the notation for the flux tube wave function