Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies

There is a vast literature on exchange rate forecasting focusing on developed economies. Since the early 1990s, many developing economies have liberalized their financial accounts, and become an integral part of the international financial system. A series of financial crises experienced by these emerging market economies ed them to switch to some form of a flexible exchange rate regime, coupled with inflation targeting. These developments, in turn, accentuate the need for exchange rate forecasting in such economies. This paper is a first attempt to compile data from the emerging Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies, to evaluate the performance of versions of the monetary model of exchange rate determination, and time series models for forecasting exchange rates. Forecast performance of these models at various horizons are evaluated against that of a random walk, which, overwhelmingly, was found to be the best exchange rate predictor for developed economies in the previous literature. Following Clark and West (2006, 2007) for forecast performance analysis, we report that in short horizons, structural models and time series models outperform the random walk for the six CEE countries in the data set

Universal behavior of localization of residue fluctuations in globular proteins

Localization properties of residue fluctuations in globular proteins are studied theoretically by using the Gaussian network model. Participation ratio for each residue fluctuation mode is calculated. It is found that the relationship between participation ratio and frequency is similar for all globular proteins, indicating a universal behavior in spite of their different size, shape, and architecture.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Visualizing the Quantum Interaction Picture in Phase Space

We illustrate the correspondence between the quantum Interaction Picture-evolution of the state of a quantum system in Hilbert space and a combination of local and global transformations of its Wigner function in phase space. To this aim, we consider the time-evolution of a quantized harmonic oscillator driven by both a linear and a quadratic (in terms of bosonic creation and annihilation operators) potentials and employ the Magnus series to derive the exact form of the time-evolution operator. In this case, the Interaction Picture corresponds to a local transformation of phase space-reference frame into the one that is co-moving with the Wigner function.Comment: Submitted to New Journal of Physic

Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in the Mediterranean Area in Adults. Role of Behçet’s Disease as an Underlying Cause

Cerebral venous and dural sinus thrombosis (CVT) is a rare condition with a wide spectrum of clinical presentations. The epidemiology of the disease has evolved considerably during the recent decades with increasing oral contraceptive use in young and middle-aged women. CVT has various causes including genetic and acquired prothrombotic disorders and it usually has a favorable outcome with a low rate of thrombotic recurrence and mortality. Geographical and ethnic variations between populations may result in different distribution of CVT etiologies leading to different pathophysiological mechanisms and clinical presentations. In CVT series reported mostly from the Americas and the western European countries Behçet’s disease (BD) is not reported as a common cause of CVT. However it can be discerned as a frequent cause of CVT in BD series. Due to the high prevalence of BD in the southeast Mediterranean region BD is a frequent cause of CVT in the area. Discerning characteristics of patients with BD and CVT have been reported previously and these might be helpful in guiding diagnosis and treatment of CVT especially in this part of the world

Anharmonicity and self-similarity of the free energy landscape of protein G

The near-native free energy landscape of protein G is investigated through 0.4 microseconds-long atomistic molecular dynamics simulations in explicit solvent. A theoretical and computational framework is used to assess the time-dependence of salient thermodynamical features. While the quasi-harmonic character of the free energy is found to degrade in a few ns, the slow modes display a very mild dependence on the trajectory duration. This property originates from a striking self-similarity of the free energy landscape embodied by the consistency of the principal directions of the local minima, where the system dwells for several ns, and of the virtual jumps connecting them.Comment: revtex, 6 pages, 5 figure

Approximate solutions of stochastic differential delay equations with Markovian switching

Our main aim is to develop the existence theory for the solutions to stochastic differential delay equations with Markovian switching (SDDEwMSs) and to establish the convergence theory for the Euler-Maruyama approximate solutions under the local Lipschitz condition. As an application, our results are used to discuss a stochastic delay population system with Markovian switching

Identifikasi Faktor Pendorong Pernikahan Dini dengan Metode Analisis Faktor

Analisis faktor adalah satu teknik analisis data yang ditujukan untukmereduksi sejumlah variabel menjadi beberapa kelompok lebih kecil yang disebut sebagaifaktor. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor pendorongpernikahan muda dengan menggunakan analisis faktor. Teknik pengambilan sampelyang digunakan adalah cluster sampling. Variabel yang digunakan sebanyak11. Dari data yang diperoleh dilakukan uji validitas dan reliabilitas serta analisisfaktor menggunakan software SPSS 20.0 for windows. Hasil analisis menunjukkanbahwa terdapat dua variabel yang tidak valid dan harus dikeluarkan dari analisis.Berdasarkan hasil penelitian diperoleh 3 faktor dominan yang memperngaruhi keputusanremaja menikah di usia muda yaitu faktor ekonomi dan biologis (30,688%),faktor pergaulan (15,187%), dan faktor tradisi (13,62%). Ketiga faktor tersebutmemberikan proposi keragamaan kumulatif sebesar 59,557% artinya ketiga faktortersebut merupakan faktor dominan dan sisanya dapat dipengaruhi faktor-faktorlainnya yang tidak teridentifikasi oleh penelitian

Pengaruh antara Penggunaan Teknologi Informasi, Implementasi Strategi Diferensiasi, dan Kualitas Layanan dalam Mencapai Keunggulan Bersaing pada Rumah Sakit Haji Makassar

Perkembangan persaingan antar Perusahaan semakin ketat baik pada tingkat regional maupun global. Pada sebagian besar industri jasa, kualitas layanan secara umum diterima sebagai suatu faktor penentu (key factor). Zeithaml dan Berry menyatakan bahwa kualitas layanan merupakan strategi yang mendasar dalam upaya Perusahaan meraih sukses dan keberlanjutan dalam lingkungan bisnis yang ketat. Kualitas pelayanan dapat dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor seperti penggunaan teknologi informasi dan implementasi strategi diferensiasi. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh penggunaan teknologi informasi terhadap kualitas pelayanan, pengaruh kualitas pelayanan terhadap keunggulan bersaing, dan pengaruh implementasi strategi diferensiasi terhadap keunggulan bersaing. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian explanatory adalah untuk menjelaskan hubungan kausal antara variabel melalui proposisi konfirmatory dan pengujian. Dalam penelitian ini teknik analisis yang digunakan Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Perwakilan jumlah sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian yang sesuai dengan menggunakan teknik analisis SEM.Teknologi informasi memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kualitas pelayanan, strategi diferensiasi memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keunggulan kompetitif, kualitas layanan memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keunggulan kompetitif. Teknologi informasi dan strategi diferensiasi dapat memengaruhi kualitas pelayanan dan kualitas pelayanan itu sendiri akan memengaruhi keunggulan bersaing rumah sakit. Kesimpulannya adalah penggunaan teknologi informasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kualitas pelayanan sedangkan strategi diferensiasi dan kualitas layanan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keunggulan bersaing

Dynamics of allosteric transitions in GroEL

The chaperonin GroEL-GroES, a machine which helps some proteins to fold, cycles through a number of allosteric states, the $T$ state, with high affinity for substrate proteins (SPs), the ATP-bound $R$ state, and the $R^{\prime\prime}$ ($GroEL-ADP-GroES$) complex. Structures are known for each of these states. Here, we use a self-organized polymer (SOP) model for the GroEL allosteric states and a general structure-based technique to simulate the dynamics of allosteric transitions in two subunits of GroEL and the heptamer. The $T \to R$ transition, in which the apical domains undergo counter-clockwise motion, is mediated by a multiple salt-bridge switch mechanism, in which a series of salt-bridges break and form. The initial event in the $R \to R^{\prime\prime}$ transition, during which GroEL rotates clockwise, involves a spectacular outside-in movement of helices K and L that results in K80-D359 salt-bridge formation. In both the transitions there is considerable heterogeneity in the transition pathways. The transition state ensembles (TSEs) connecting the $T$, $R$, and $R^{\prime\prime}$ states are broad with the the TSE for the $T \to R$ transition being more plastic than the $R\to R^{\prime\prime}$ TSE. The results suggest that GroEL functions as a force-transmitting device in which forces of about (5-30) pN may act on the SP during the reaction cycle.Comment: 32 pages, 10 figures (Longer version than the one published