The Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates tropical cyclone days on the interannual timescale in the North Pacific Ocean

The North Pacific Ocean is the most active region on our planet in terms of tropical cyclone (TC) activity. These storms are responsible for numerous fatalities and economic damages, affecting the livelihood of those living in the impacted areas. Historically the examination of TCs in the North Pacific Ocean has been performed separately for its two main sub-basins: the West North Pacific and the East North Pacific. Here, we consider the TC activity in the North Pacific as a single basin and examine the climate processes responsible for its number of TC days. We show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulates the number of TC days in the North Pacific Ocean through its connection to the sea surface temperature. The insights from this work will advance the understanding of the climate processes responsible for these storms, and will provide valuable information toward our preparation and adaptation efforts on long timescales

Climatology of Flooding in the United States

Flood losses in the United States have increased dramatically over the course of the past century, averaging US$7.96 billion in damages per year for the 30-year period ranging from 1985 to 2014. In terms of human fatalities, floods are the second largest weather-related hazard in the United States, causing approximately 80 deaths per year over the same period. Given the wide-reaching impacts of flooding across the United States, the evaluation of flood-generating mechanisms and of the drivers of changing flood hazard are two areas of active research. Flood frequency analysis has traditionally been based on statistical analyses of the observed flood distributions that rarely distinguish among physical flood-generating processes. However, recent scientific advances have shown that flood frequency distributions are often characterized by “mixed populations” arising from multiple flood-generating mechanisms, which can be challenging to disentangle. Flood events can be driven by a variety of physical mechanisms, including rain and snowmelt, frontal systems, monsoons, intense tropical cyclones, and more generic cyclonic storms. Temporal changes in the frequency and magnitude of flooding have also been the subject of a large body of work in recent decades. The science has moved from a focus on the detection of trends and shifts in flood peak distributions towards the attribution of these changes, with particular emphasis on climatic and anthropogenic factors, including urbanization and changes in agricultural practices. A better understanding of these temporal changes in flood peak distributions, as well as of the physical flood-generating mechanisms, will enable us to move forward with the estimation of future flood design values in the context of both climatic and anthropogenic change

Intense precipitation events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in response to a warmer climate and increased CO2

In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated 28 with tropical cyclones (TCs) under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly warmer climate, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing the amount of precipitation associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present day simulation, we found an increase in TC precipitation under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2 doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and we found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in the precipitation changes affecting the tropical coastal regions

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global Scale Forcings

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changes in heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by our understanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature (SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns of composite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally)

Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications for winter flooding in Britain

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing

Precipitation Type Specific Radar Reflectivity-Rain Rate Relationships for Warsaw, Poland

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui peningkatan penguasaan konsep dan kemampuan literasi sains siswa dengan menggunakan model pembelajaran kontekstual berbantuan multimedia. Metode dan desain penelitian yang digunakan adalah quasi experiment dengan pretest-posttest control group design. Subjek penelitiannya adalah kelas XI di kabupaten Subang, Jawa-Barat. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan Model Pembelajaran Kontekstual berbantuan multimedia secara signifikan mampu meningkatkan penguasaan konsep dan kemampuan literasi sains siswa. Peningkatan penguasaan konsep siswa dengan nilai N-Gain 0.50 (kategori sedang) untuk kelas eksperimen dan 0,30 (kategori sedang) untuk kelas kontrol. Peningkatan kemampuan literasi sains siswa dengan nilai N-Gain 0.45 (kategori sedang) untuk kelas eksperimen dan 0,30 (kategori sedang) untuk kelas kontrol. This study aims to determine the concepts mastery and skills increase scientific literacy of students by using multimedia-assisted contextual learning model. The method used quasi experiment with pretest-posttest control group design. Subjects of study are class XI in Subang districts, West-Java. The result of study showed that contextual model’s aided by multimedia significantly enhance student’s concepts mastery and skills scientific literacy. The enhancement of student’s concepts mastery with N-Gain value is 0.50 (medium category) for experiment class and 0,30 (medium category) for control class. The enhancement of student's skills scientific literacy with N-Gain value is 0.45 (medium category) for experiment class and 0,30 (medium category) for control class

Primary DNA damage and genetic polymorphisms for CYP1A1, EPHX and GSTM1 in workers at a graphite electrode manufacturing plant

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The results of a cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate whether genetic polymorphisms (biomarkers of susceptibility) for <it>CYP1A1</it>, <it>EPHX </it>and <it>GSTM1 </it>genes that affect polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) activation and detoxification might influence the extent of primary DNA damage (biomarker of biologically effective dose) in PAH exposed workers are presented. PAH-exposure of the study populations was assessed by determining the concentration of 1-hydroxypyrene (1OHP) in urine samples (biomarker of exposure dose).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The exposed group consisted of workers (n = 109) at a graphite electrode manufacturing plant, occupationally exposed to PAH. Urinary 1OHP was measured by HPLC. Primary DNA damage was evaluated by the alkaline comet assay in peripheral blood leukocytes. Genetic polymorphisms for <it>CYP1A1</it>, <it>EPHX</it> and <it>GSTM1</it> were determined by PCR or PCR/RFLP analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>1OHP and primary DNA damage were significantly higher in electrode workers compared to reference subjects. Moreover, categorization of subjects as normal or outlier highlighted an increased genotoxic risk OR = 2.59 (CI95% 1.32–5.05) associated to exposure to PAH. Polymorphisms in <it>EPHX</it> exons 3 and 4 was associated to higher urinary concentrations of 1OHP, whereas none of the genotypes analyzed (<it>CYP1A1</it>, <it>EPHX</it>, and <it>GSTM1</it>) had any significant influence on primary DNA damage as evaluated by the comet assay.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The outcomes of the present study show that molecular epidemiology approaches (i.e. cross-sectional studies of genotoxicity biomarkers) can play a role in identifying common genetic risk factors, also attempting to associate the effects with measured exposure data. Moreover, categorization of subjects as normal or outlier allowed the evaluation of the association between occupational exposure to PAH and DNA damage highlighting an increased genotoxic risk.</p

Results from the European Union MAPEC_LIFE cohort study on air pollution and chromosomal damage in children: are public health policies sufficiently protective?

Background: Children are at high risk of suffering health consequences of air pollution and childhood exposure can increase the risk of developing chronic diseases in adulthood. This study, part of the MAPEC_LIFE project (LIFE12 ENV/IT/000614), aimed to investigate the associations between exposure to urban air pollutants and micronucleus (MN) frequency, as a biomarker of chromosomal damage, in buccal cells of children for supporting implementation and updating of environmental policy and legislation. Methods: This prospective epidemiological cohort study was carried out on 6- to 8-year-old children living in five Italian towns with different levels and features of air pollution. Exfoliated buccal cells of the children were sampled twice, in winter and spring, obtaining 2139 biological samples for genotoxicological investigation. Micronucleus (MN) frequency was investigated in buccal cells of children and its association with air pollution exposure was assessed applying multiple Poisson regression mixed models, including socio-demographic and lifestyle factors as confounders. We also dichotomize air pollutants\u2019 concentration according to the EU Ambient Air Quality Directives and WHO Air Quality Guidelines in all Poisson regression models to assess their risk predictive capacity. Results: Positive and statistically significant associations were found between MN frequency and PM10, PM2.5, benzene, SO2 and ozone. The increment of the risk of having MN in buccal cells for each \u3bcg/m3 increase of pollutant concentration was maximum for benzene (18.9%, 95% CIs 2.2\u201338.4%) and modest for the other pollutants (between 0.2 and 1.4%). An increased risk (between 17.9% and 59.8%) was found also for exposure to PM10, benzene and benzo(a)pyrene levels higher than the threshold limits. Conclusions: Some air pollutants are able to induce chromosomal damage in buccal cells of children even at concentrations below present EU/WHO limits. This type of biological effects may be indicative of the environmental pressure which populations are exposed to in urban areas

A study protocol for the evaluation of occupational mutagenic/carcinogenic risks in subjects exposed to antineoplastic drugs: a multicentric project

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Some industrial hygiene studies have assessed occupational exposure to antineoplastic drugs; other epidemiological investigations have detected various toxicological effects in exposure groups labeled with the job title. In no research has the same population been studied both environmentally and epidemiologically. The protocol of the epidemiological study presented here uses an integrated environmental and biological monitoring approach. The aim is to assess in hospital nurses preparing and/or administering therapy to cancer patients the current level of occupational exposure to antineoplastic drugs, DNA and chromosome damage as cancer predictive effects, and the association between the two.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>About 80 healthy non-smoking female nurses, who job it is to prepare or handle antineoplastic drugs, and a reference group of about 80 healthy non-smoking female nurses not occupationally exposed to chemicals will be examined simultaneously in a cross-sectional study. All the workers will be recruited from five hospitals in northern and central Italy after their informed consent has been obtained.</p> <p>Evaluation of surface contamination and dermal exposure to antineoplastic drugs will be assessed by determining cyclophosphamide on selected surfaces (wipes) and on the exposed nurses' clothes (pads). The concentration of unmetabolized cyclophosphamide as a biomarker of internal dose will be measured in end-shift urine samples from exposed nurses.</p> <p>Biomarkers of effect and susceptibility will be assessed in exposed and unexposed nurses: urinary concentration of 8-hydroxy-2-deoxyguanosine; DNA damage detected using the single-cell microgel electrophoresis (comet) assay in peripheral white blood cells; micronuclei and chromosome aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes. Genetic polymorphisms for enzymes involved in metabolic detoxification (i.e. glutathione <it>S</it>-transferases) will also be analysed.</p> <p>Using standardized questionnaires, occupational exposure will be determined in exposed nurses only, whereas potential confounders (medicine consumption, lifestyle habits, diet and other non-occupational exposures) will be assessed in both groups of hospital workers.</p> <p>Statistical analysis will be performed to ascertain the association between occupational exposure to antineoplastic drugs and biomarkers of DNA and chromosome damage, after taking into account the effects of individual genetic susceptibility, and the presence of confounding exposures.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The findings of the study will be useful in updating prevention procedures for handling antineoplastic drugs.</p