Population dynamics

Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population) minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population). Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996), and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000). The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004). Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally focused on estimation of survival rate (arguably, use of data from marked individuals has been used for estimation of survival more than any other parameter, save perhaps abundance), it is only one of many transitions in the life cycle. Others discussed include transitions between age or size classes, breeding states, and physical locations. The demographic consequences of these transitions can be captured by matrix population models, and such models provide a natural link connecting multi–stage mark–recapture methods and population dynamics. The utility of the matrix approach for both prospective, and retrospective, analysis of variation in the dynamics of populations is well–known; such comparisons of results of prospective and retrospective analysis is fundamental to considerations of conservation management (sensu Caswell, 2000). What is intriguing is the degree to which these methods can be combined, or contrasted, with more direct estimation of one or more measures of the trajectory of a population (e.g., Sandercock & Beissinger, 2002). The five additional papers presented in the population dynamics session clearly reflected these considerations. In particular, the three papers submitted for this volume indicate the various ways in which complex empirical data can be analyzed, and often combined with more classical modeling approaches, to provide more robust insights to the dynamics of the study population. The paper by Francis & Saurola (2004) is an example of rigorous analysis and modeling applied to a large, carefully collected dataset from a long–term study of the biology of the Tawny Owl. Using a combination of live encounters and dead recoveries, the authors were able to separate the relative contributions of various processes (emigration, mortality) on variation in survival rates. These analyses were combined with periodic matrix models to explore comparisons of direct estimation of changes in population size (based on both census and mark–recapture analysis) with model estimates. The utility of combining sources of information into analysis of populations was the explicit subject of the other two papers. Gauthier & Lebreton (2004) draw on a long–term study of an Arctic–breeding Goose population, where both extensive mark–recapture, ring recovery, and census data are available. The primary goal is to use these various sources of information to to evaluate the effect of increased harvests on dynamics of the population. A number of methods are compared; most notably they describe an approach based on the Kalman filter which allows for different sources of information to be used in the same model, that is demographic data (i.e. transition matrix) and census data (i.e. annual survey). They note that one advantage of this approach is that it attempts to minimize both uncertainties associated with the survey and demographic parameters based on the variance of each estimate. The final paper, by Brooks, King and Morgan (Brooks et al., 2004) extends the notion of the combining information in a common model further. They present a Bayesian analysis of joint ring–recovery and census data using a state–space model allowing for the fact that not all members of the population are directly observable. They then impose a Leslie–matrix–based model on the true population counts describing the natural birth–death and age transition processes. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach (which eliminates the need for some of the standard assumption often invoked in use of a Kalman filter), Brooks and colleagues describe methods to combine information, including potentially relevant covariates that might explain some of the variation, within a larger framework that allows for discrimination (selection) amongst alternative models. We submit that all of the papers presented in this session indicate clearly significant interest in approaches for combining data and modeling approaches. The Bayesian framework appears a natural framework for this effort, since it is able to not only provide a rigorous way to evaluate and integrate multiple sources of information, but provides an explicit mechanism to accommodate various sources of uncertainty about the system. With the advent of numerical approaches to addressing some of the traditionally ‘tricky’ parts of Bayesian inference (e.g., MCMC), and relatively user–friendly software, we suspect that there will be a marked increase in the application of Bayesian inference to the analysis of population dynamics. We believe that the papers presented in this, and other sessions, are harbingers of this trend

Nocturnal gibberellin biosynthesis is carbon dependent and adjusts leaf expansion rates to variable conditions

Optimal plant growth performance requires that the presence and action of growth signals, such as gibberellins (GAs), are coordinated with the availability of photo-assimilates. Here, we studied the links between GA biosynthesis and carbon availability, and the subsequent effects on growth. We established that carbon availability, light and dark cues, and the circadian clock ensure the timing and magnitude of GA biosynthesis and that disruption of these factors results in reduced GA levels and expression of downstream genes. Carbon-dependent nighttime induction of gibberellin 3-beta-dioxygenase 1 (GA3ox1) was severely hampered when preceded by reduced daytime light availability, leading specifically to reduced bioactive GA4 levels, and coinciding with a decline in leaf expansion rate during the night. We attributed this decline in leaf expansion mostly to reduced photo-assimilates. However, plants in which GA limitation was alleviated had significantly improved leaf expansion, demonstrating the relevance of GAs in growth control under varying carbon availability. Carbon-dependent expression of upstream GA biosynthesis genes (Kaurene synthase and gibberellin 20 oxidase 1, GA20ox1) was not translated into metabolite changes within this short timeframe. We propose a model in which the extent of nighttime biosynthesis of bioactive GA4 by GA3ox1 is determined by nighttime consumption of starch reserves, thus providing day-to-day adjustments of GA responses

Impact of blend properties on die filling during tableting

Based on characterization of a wide range of fillers and APIs, thirty divergent blends were composed and subsequently compressed on a rotary tablet press, varying paddle speed and turret speed. The tablet weight variability was determined of 20 grab samples consisting of each 20 tablets. Additionally, the bulk residence time, ejection force, pre-compression displacement, main compression force, die fill fraction and feed frame fill fraction were determined during each run. Multivariate data analysis was applied to investigate the relation between the process parameters, blend characteristics, product and process responses. Blends with metoprolol tartrate as API showed high ejection forces. This behavior could be linked to the high wall friction value of metoprolol tartrate. The main responses related to the die filling could be predicted via a PLS model based on blend characteristics. Tablet weight variability was highly correlated with the variability on pre-compression displacement and main compression force. A good predictive model for tablet weight variability was obtained taking the porosity, wall friction angle, flowability, density, compressibility and permeability into account. Additionally, turret speed and paddle speed were included in the calibration of the model. The applied approach can save resources (material, time) during early drug product development

Who bullies whom at a garden feeder? Interspecific agonistic interactions of small passerines during a cold winter

Interspecific agonistic interactions are important selective factors for maintaining ecological niches of different species, but their outcome is difficult to predict a priori. Here, we examined the direction and intensity of interspecific interactions in an assemblage of small passerines at a garden feeder, focussing on three finch species of various body sizes. We found that large and mediumsized birds usually initiated and won agonistic interactions with smaller species. Also, the frequency of fights increased with decreasing differences in body size between the participants. Finally, the probability of engaging in a fight increased with the number of birds at the feeder

Identification of plastic constitutive parameters at large deformations from three dimensional displacement fields

The aim of this paper is to provide a general procedure to extract the constitutive parameters of a plasticity model starting from displacement measurements and using the Virtual Fields Method. This is a classical inverse problem which has been already investigated in the literature, however several new features are developed here. First of all the procedure applies to a general three-dimensional displacement field which leads to large plastic deformations, no assumptions are made such as plane stress or plane strain although only pressure-independent plasticity is considered. Moreover the equilibrium equation is written in terms of the deviatoric stress tensor that can be directly computed from the strain field without iterations. Thanks to this, the identification routine is much faster compared to other inverse methods such as finite element updating. The proposed method can be a valid tool to study complex phenomena which involve severe plastic deformation and where the state of stress is completely triaxial, e.g. strain localization or necking occurrence. The procedure has been validated using a three dimensional displacement field obtained from a simulated experiment. The main potentialities as well as a first sensitivity study on the influence of measurement errors are illustrated

Performance of photon reconstruction and identification with the CMS detector in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV

A description is provided of the performance of the CMS detector for photon reconstruction and identification in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV at the CERN LHC. Details are given on the reconstruction of photons from energy deposits in the electromagnetic calorimeter (ECAL) and the extraction of photon energy estimates. The reconstruction of electron tracks from photons that convert to electrons in the CMS tracker is also described, as is the optimization of the photon energy reconstruction and its accurate modelling in simulation, in the analysis of the Higgs boson decay into two photons. In the barrel section of the ECAL, an energy resolution of about 1% is achieved for unconverted or late-converting photons from Hγγ decays. Different photon identification methods are discussed and their corresponding selection efficiencies in data are compared with those found in simulated events

Measurement and Interpretation of Fermion-Pair Production at LEP energies above the Z Resonance

This paper presents DELPHI measurements and interpretations of cross-sections, forward-backward asymmetries, and angular distributions, for the e+e- -> ffbar process for centre-of-mass energies above the Z resonance, from sqrt(s) ~ 130 - 207 GeV at the LEP collider. The measurements are consistent with the predictions of the Standard Model and are used to study a variety of models including the S-Matrix ansatz for e+e- -> ffbar scattering and several models which include physics beyond the Standard Model: the exchange of Z' bosons, contact interactions between fermions, the exchange of gravitons in large extra dimensions and the exchange of sneutrino in R-parity violating supersymmetry.Comment: 79 pages, 16 figures, Accepted by Eur. Phys. J.

A Determination of the Centre-of-Mass Energy at LEP2 using Radiative 2-fermion Events

Using e+e- -> mu+mu-(gamma) and e+e- -> qqbar(gamma) events radiative to the Z pole, DELPHI has determined the centre-of-mass energy, sqrt{s}, using energy and momentum constraint methods. The results are expressed as deviations from the nominal LEP centre-of-mass energy, measured using other techniques. The results are found to be compatible with the LEP Energy Working Group estimates for a combination of the 1997 to 2000 data sets.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures, Accepted by Eur. Phys. J.