Impact of district heating and groundwater heat pump systems on the primaryenergy needs in urban areas

This work is focused on the planning of rational heating systems for urban areas. From the sustainability viewpoint, district heating is an important option to supply heat to the users in urban areas. The energy convenience of such option depends on the annual energy request, the population density and the efficiency in heat production. Among the alternative technologies, geothermal heat pumps (both open loop and closed loop heat pumps) play a crucial role. This paper aims to propose a procedure to select which users in an urban area should be connected with a district heating network and which ones should be heated through an alternative technology, in order to reach a globally optimal system from the energy viewpoint. The procedure proposes district heating as the initial choice for all the users. The users are then progressively disconnected to the network, according with the primary energy required to supply them heat, and the alternative technology is considered for disconnected users. Here, ground water heat pump is considered as the alternative technology. The total primary energy request is assumed as the objective function to be minimized. To reach this result, the exergetic cost of heat supplied through heat pumps system must be evaluated. Such evaluation is not trivial, as it must include proper analysis of both the district heating network and the alternative system. In the case of densely populated areas, an additional consideration is necessary: the subsurface thermal degradation caused by heat pump installations may affect the performances of surrounding installations. This impact is calculated through a thermo-fluid dynamic model of the subsurface. The application to an Italian town is considered as a test case. The optimal configuration of the overall urban heating system is obtained. This configuration corresponds to the minimum primary energy request to supply heat to all the users (those connected to the network and those using an alternative heating system)

Determining ‘Age at Death’ for Forensic Purposes using Human Bone by a Laboratory-based Analytical Method

Determination of age-at-death (AAD) is an important and frequent requirement in contemporary forensic science and in the reconstruction of past populations and societies from their remains. Its estimation is relatively straightforward and accurate (±3 years) for immature skeletons by using morphological features and reference tables within the context of forensic anthropology. However, after skeletal maturity (>35 yrs) estimates become inaccurate, particularly in the legal context. In line with the general migration of all the forensic sciences from reliance upon empirical criteria to those which are more evidence-based, AAD determination should rely more-and-more upon more quantitative methods. We explore here whether well-known changes in the biomechanical properties of bone and the properties of bone matrix, which have been seen to change with age even after skeletal maturity in a traceable manner, can be used to provide a reliable estimate of AAD. This method charts a combination of physical characteristics some of which are measured at a macroscopic level (wet & dry apparent density, porosity, organic/mineral/water fractions, collagen thermal degradation properties, ash content) and others at the microscopic level (Ca/P ratios, osteonal and matrix microhardness, image analysis of sections). This method produced successful age estimates on a cohort of 12 donors of age 53–85 yr (7 male, 5 female), where the age of the individual could be approximated within less than ±1 yr. This represents a vastly improved level of accuracy than currently extant age estimation techniques. It also presents: (1) a greater level of reliability and objectivity as the results are not dependent on the experience and expertise of the observer, as is so often the case in forensic skeletal age estimation methods; (2) it is purely laboratory-based analytical technique which can be carried out by someone with technical skills and not the specialised forensic anthropology experience; (3) it can be applied worldwide following stringent laboratory protocols. As such, this technique contributes significantly to improving age estimation and therefore identification methods for forensic and other purposes

Impact of common cardio-metabolic risk factors on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Latin America and the Caribbean: An individual-level pooled analysis of 31 cohort studies

Background: Estimates of the burden of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) rely on relative risks (RRs) from non-LAC countries. Whether these RRs apply to LAC remains unknown. Methods: We pooled LAC cohorts. We estimated RRs per unit of exposure to body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC) and non-HDL cholesterol on fatal (31 cohorts, n=168,287) and non-fatal (13 cohorts, n=27,554) cardiovascular diseases, adjusting for regression dilution bias. We used these RRs and national data on mean risk factor levels to estimate the number of cardiovascular deaths attributable to non-optimal levels of each risk factor. Results: Our RRs for SBP, FPG and TC were like those observed in cohorts conducted in high-income countries; however, for BMI, our RRs were consistently smaller in people below 75 years of age. Across risk factors, we observed smaller RRs among older ages. Non-optimal SBP was responsible for the largest number of attributable cardiovascular deaths ranging from 38 per 100,000 women and 54 men in Peru, to 261 (Dominica, women) and 282 (Guyana, men). For non-HDL cholesterol, the lowest attributable rate was for women in Peru (21) and men in Guatemala (25), and the largest in men (158) and women (142) from Guyana. Interpretation: RRs for BMI from studies conducted in high-income countries may overestimate disease burden metrics in LAC; conversely, RRs for SBP, FPG and TC from LAC cohorts are similar to those estimated from cohorts in high-income countries. Funding: Wellcome Trust (214185/Z/18/Z)Fil: Carrillo Larco, Rodrigo M.. Imperial College London; Reino UnidoFil: Stern, Dalia. Instituto Nacional de Salud Publica (insp);Fil: Hambleton, Ian R.. The University Of The West Indies; BarbadosFil: Hennis, Anselm. Pan American Health Organization; Estados UnidosFil: Cesare, Mariachiara Di. Middlesex University; Reino UnidoFil: Lotufo, Paulo. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Ferreccio, Catterina. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; ChileFil: Irazola, Vilma. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Perel, Pablo. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; Reino UnidoFil: Gregg, Edward W. Imperial College London; Reino UnidoFil: Miranda, J. Jaime. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Ezzati, Majid. Imperial College London; Reino UnidoFil: Danaei, Goodarz. Harvard Medical School; Estados UnidosFil: Aguilar Salinas, Carlos A.. Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y Nutrición; MéxicoFil: Alvarez Váz, Ramón. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Amadio, Marselle B.. Centro Universitario Senac Santo Amaro; BrasilFil: Baccino, Cecilia. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Bambs, Claudia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile; ChileFil: Bastos, João Luiz. Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina; BrasilFil: Beckles, Gloria. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Estados UnidosFil: Bernabe Ortiz, Antonio. Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia; PerúFil: Bernardo, Carla DO. University of Adelaide; AustraliaFil: Bloch, Katia V.. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Blümel, Juan E.. Universidad de Chile; ChileFil: Boggia, Jose G.. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Borges, Pollyanna K.. Universidade Estadual do Ponta Grossa; BrasilFil: Bravo, Miguel. MELISA Institute; ChileFil: Brenes Camacho, Gilbert. Universidad de Costa Rica; Costa RicaFil: Carbajal, Horacio A.. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Castillo Rascón, María Susana. Universidad Nacional de Misiones; Argentin

Impact of common cardio-metabolic risk factors on fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Latin America and the Caribbean: an individual-level pooled analysis of 31 cohort studies

Background: Estimates of the burden of cardio-metabolic risk factors in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) rely on relative risks (RRs) from non-LAC countries. Whether these RRs apply to LAC remains un- known. Methods: We pooled LAC cohorts. We estimated RRs per unit of exposure to body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC) and non-HDL cholesterol on fatal (31 cohorts, n = 168,287) and non-fatal (13 cohorts, n = 27,554) cardiovascular diseases, adjusting for regression dilution bias. We used these RRs and national data on mean risk factor levels to estimate the number of cardiovascular deaths attributable to non-optimal levels of each risk factor. Results: Our RRs for SBP, FPG and TC were like those observed in cohorts conducted in high-income countries; however, for BMI, our RRs were consistently smaller in people below 75 years of age. Across risk factors, we observed smaller RRs among older ages. Non-optimal SBP was responsible for the largest number of attributable cardiovascular deaths ranging from 38 per 10 0,0 0 0 women and 54 men in Peru, to 261 (Dominica, women) and 282 (Guyana, men). For non-HDL cholesterol, the lowest attributable rate was for women in Peru (21) and men in Guatemala (25), and the largest in men (158) and women (142) from Guyana. Interpretation: RRs for BMI from studies conducted in high-income countries may overestimate disease burden metrics in LAC; conversely, RRs for SBP, FPG and TC from LAC cohorts are similar to those esti- mated from cohorts in high-income countries

Cohort Profile: The Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC)

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are characterized by much diversity in terms of socio-economic status, ecol�ogy, environment, access to health care,1,2 as well as the fre�quency of risk factors for and prevalence or incidence of non-communicable diseases;3–7 importantly, these differen�ces are observed both between and within countries in LAC.8,9 LAC countries share a large burden of non�communicable (e.g. diabetes and hypertension) and cardio�vascular (e.g. ischaemic heart disease) diseases, with these conditions standing as the leading causes of morbidity, dis�ability and mortality in most of LAC.10–12 These epidemio�logical estimates—e.g. morbidity—cannot inform about risk factors or risk prediction, which are relevant to identify pre�vention avenues. Cohort studies, on the other hand, could provide this evidence. Pooled analysis, using data from mul�tiple cohort studies, have additional strengths such as in�creased statistical power and decreased statistical uncertainty.13 LAC cohort studies have been under-repre�sented,14 or not included at all,15–17 in international efforts aimed at pooling data from multiple cohort studies. We therefore set out to pool data from LAC cohorts to address research questions that individual cohort studies would not be able to answer. Drawing from previous successful regional enterprises (e.g. Asia Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration),18,19 we established the Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC). The main aim of the CC-LAC is to start a collaborative cohort data pooling in LAC to ex�amine the association between cardio-metabolic risk actors (e.g. blood pressure, glucose and lipids) and non�fatal and fatal cardiovascular outcomes (e.g. stroke or myocardial infarction). In so doing, we aim to provide re�gional risk estimates to inform disease burden metrics, as well as other ambitious projects including a cardiovascular risk score to strengthen cardiovascular prevention in LAC. Initial funding has been provided by a fellowship from the Wellcome Trust Centre for Global Health Research at Imperial College London (Strategic Award, Wellcome Trust–Imperial College Centre for Global Health Research, 100693/Z/12/Z). Additional funding is being provided by an International Training Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (214185/Z/18/Z). At the time of writing, the daily operations and pooled database are hosted at Imperial College London, though a mid-term goal is to transfer this expertise and operations to LAC. The collaboration relies fundamentally on a strong regional network of health researchers and practitioners