Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km(2), nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr(−1)), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses

Low-Key Stationary and Mobile Tools for Probing the Atmospheric UHI Effect

The urban heat island (UHI) effect is created by a series of man-made surface modifications in urban areas that cause changes to the surface energy balance, resulting in higher urban surface air temperatures as compared with surrounding rural areas. Studying the UHI effect is highly amenable to hands-on undergraduate student research projects, because, among other reasons, there are low key measurement tools that allow accurate and regular stationary and mobile probing of air temperature. Here, we summarize the results of a student project at Texas A&M University that analyzed the atmospheric UHI of Bryan/College Station, a mid-size metro area in east Texas. Sling psychrometers were used for semi-regular twice daily stationary air temperature monitoring, and a low-cost electronic sensor and miniature data logger were used for mobile measurements. Stationary data from two similar, open mid-rise building locations showed typical UHI intensities of 0–2°C, while the mobile measurements identified situations with UHI intensities exceeding 6°C when traversing areas with high impervious surface fractions. Nighttime measurements showed the expected UHI intensity relations to wind speed and atmospheric pressure, while daytime data were more strongly related to urban morphology. The success of this research may encourage similar student projects that deliver baseline data to urban communities seeking to mitigate the UHI

Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities: A Global Assessment

Urbanization is a global phenomenon and the book emphasizes that this is not just a social-technological process. It is also a social-ecological process where cities are places for nature, and where cities also are dependent on, and have impacts on, the biosphere at different scales from local to global. The book is a global assessment and delivers four main conclusions: Urban areas are expanding faster than urban populations. Half the increase in urban land across the world over the next 20 years will occur in Asia, with the most extensive change expected to take place in India and China Urban areas modify their local and regional climate through the urban heat island effect and by altering precipitation patterns, which together will have significant impacts on net primary production, ecosystem health, and biodiversity Urban expansion will heavily draw on natural resources, including water, on a global scale, and will often consume prime agricultural land, with knock-on effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services elsewhere Future urban expansion will often occur in areas where the capacity for formal governance is restricted, which will constrain the protection of biodiversity and management of ecosystem service

Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges and Opportunities: A Global Assessment

Urban Ecology; Urbanism; Sustainable Development; Complex Systems; Science, general; International Environmental La

A Meta-Analysis of Global Urban Land Expansion

The conversion of Earth's land surface to urban uses is one of the most irreversible human impacts on the global biosphere. It drives the loss of farmland, affects local climate, fragments habitats, and threatens biodiversity. Here we present a meta-analysis of 326 studies that have used remotely sensed images to map urban land conversion. We report a worldwide observed increase in urban land area of 58,000 km2 from 1970 to 2000. India, China, and Africa have experienced the highest rates of urban land expansion, and the largest change in total urban extent has occurred in North America. Across all regions and for all three decades, urban land expansion rates are higher than or equal to urban population growth rates, suggesting that urban growth is becoming more expansive than compact. Annual growth in GDP per capita drives approximately half of the observed urban land expansion in China but only moderately affects urban expansion in India and Africa, where urban land expansion is driven more by urban population growth. In high income countries, rates of urban land expansion are slower and increasingly related to GDP growth. However, in North America, population growth contributes more to urban expansion than it does in Europe. Much of the observed variation in urban expansion was not captured by either population, GDP, or other variables in the model. This suggests that contemporary urban expansion is related to a variety of factors difficult to observe comprehensively at the global level, including international capital flows, the informal economy, land use policy, and generalized transport costs. Using the results from the global model, we develop forecasts for new urban land cover using SRES Scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, global urban land cover will increase between 430,000 km2 and 12,568,000 km2, with an estimate of 1,527,000 km2 more likely

Nature futures for the urban century : Integrating multiple values into urban management

There is an emerging consensus that the health of the planet depends on the coexistence between rapidly growing cities and the natural world. One strategy for guiding cities towards sustainability is to facilitate a planning process based on positive visions for urban systems among actors and stakeholders. This paper presents the Urban Nature Futures Framework (UNFF), a framework for scenario building for cities that is based on three Nature Futures perspectives: Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. Our framework engages stakeholders with envisioning the three Nature Futures perspectives through four components using participatory methods and quantitative models: identification of the socio-ecological feedbacks in cities, assessment of indirect impacts of cities on biodiversity, development of multi-scale indicators, and development of scenarios. Stakeholders in cities may use this framework to explore different options for integrating nature in its various manifestations within urban areas and to assess how different community preferences result in various cityscapes and distribution of associated benefits from nature among urban dwellers across multiple scales

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What is the Direction of Land Change? A New Approach to Land-Change Analysis

Accurate characterization of the direction of land change is a neglected aspect of land dynamics. Knowledge on direction of historical land change can be useful information when understanding relative influence of different land-change drivers is of interest. In this study, we present a novel perspective on land-change analysis by focusing on directionality of change. To this end, we employed Maximum Cross-Correlation (MCC) approach to estimate the directional change in land cover in a dynamic river floodplain environment using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) images. This approach has previously been used for detecting and measuring fluid and ice motions but not to study directional changes in land cover. We applied the MCC approach on land-cover class membership layers derived from fuzzy remote-sensing image classification. We tested the sensitivity of the resulting displacement vectors to three user-defined parameters—template size, search window size, and a threshold parameter to determine valid (non-noisy) displacement vectors—that directly affect the generation of change, or displacement, vectors; this has not previously been thoroughly investigated in any application domain. The results demonstrate that it is possible to quantitatively measure the rate of directional change in land cover in this floodplain environment using this particular approach. Sensitivity analyses indicate that template size and MCC threshold parameter are more influential on the displacement vectors than search window size. The results vary by land-cover class, suggesting that spatial configuration of land-cover classes should be taken into consideration in the implementation of the method