Enerji şoklarının Türkiye’de makroekonomik değişkenler üzerindeki etkileri : yeni keynesyen dinamik stokastik genel denge modeli uygulaması

06.03.2018 tarihli ve 30352 sayılı Resmi Gazetede yayımlanan “Yükseköğretim Kanunu İle Bazı Kanun Ve Kanun Hükmünde Kararnamelerde Değişiklik Yapılması Hakkında Kanun” ile 18.06.2018 tarihli “Lisansüstü Tezlerin Elektronik Ortamda Toplanması, Düzenlenmesi ve Erişime Açılmasına İlişkin Yönerge” gereğince tam metin erişime açılmıştır.Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisi için 2007:1-2016:4 çeyrek dönemleri arasında enerji ile ilişkili şokların makroekonomik etkileri geliştirilmiş olan Yeni Keynesyen Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge (DSGD) modeli yoluyla analiz edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda, geliştirilen DSGD modelinde 4 önemli şokun etkileri incelenmiştir. Bu şoklar ise dünya reel enerji fiyatı şoku, yurtiçi reel enerji fiyatı şoku, enerji ihracatı şoku ve verimlilik şokudur. Bu şokların neticesinde elde edilen etki-tepki fonksiyonlarına dayanarak tespit edilmiş birçok sonuçtan öne çıkanları şunlardır: Hem dünya reel enerji fiyatlarında hem yurtiçi reel enerji fiyatlarında meydana gelen bir şok ekonomide üretim, tüketim, istihdam gibi değişkenler üzerinde aynı yönlü ve olumsuz etkilere sahiptir. Ancak, yurtiçi reel enerji fiyatındaki şokun etkileri daha uzun dönemli ve kümülatif olarak daha yüksek çıkmıştır. Bu durumun ise döviz kuru kaynaklı olduğu düşünülmektedir. Dolayısıyla kurun istikrar altına alınmasının daraltıcı etkileri önleme bakımından önemli olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Para politikasının ise enerji şoklarının daraltıcı etkisini daha da artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Pozitif bir verimlilik şoku ise genel anlamda olumlu etkilere sahiptir.Fakat üretimde emek ve enerji girdileri arasında tamamlayıcılık ilişkisinin yüksekliğinden dolayı verimlilik artışı sonucu üretimde enerji gereksiniminin azalışı ayrıca istihdam azalışına neden olmaktadır. Bu istihdam azalışının önüne geçebilmek için beşeri sermaye odaklı bir büyüme stratejisinin gerekli olduğu öngörülmektedir. Pozitif bir enerji ihracatı şokunun ise temel makroekonomik değişkenler üzerinde olumlu etkilere sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla önümüzdeki dönemlerde enerji ihracatında yaşanacak artışın ekonomiye olumlu katkıları olacağı düşünülmektedir.In this study, the macroeconomic effects of the energy-related shocks are analyzed by means of the developed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the period 2007:1-2016:4. In this context, the effects of the four different shocks are investigated. These shocks are world real energy price shock, domestic real energy price shock, energy exports shock and productivity shock, respectively. Based on the impulse-response functions obtained as a result of these shocks, the most prominent ones are as follows: A shock occurring in both world and domestic energy prices has effects occurring in the same direction having negative features. However, impacts of the domestic energy shock are determined as longer and cumulatively higher. This condition is considered as an economic event stemmed from exchange rates. For this reason, the stabilization of exchange rates is concluded as significant with regards to the prevention of contractionary effects. It is concluded that monetary policy increases the contractionary effect of energy shocks as a secondary effect. As for positive productivity shock, it has positive effects in general. However, the decrease in energy requirement in production also leads to a decrease in employment due to the great complementarity relationship between labour and energy inputs. A human capital oriented growth strategy is concluded as necessary to prevent this employment decrease. On the other hand, a positive shock occurring in energy exports has positive impacts on the major macroeconomic variables. Therefore, it is considered that an increase in energy exports which would occur in the forthcoming periods would have positive contributions to the economy

Coping with production time variability via dynamic lead-time quotation

In this paper, we propose two dynamic lead-time quotation policies in an M/GI/1 type make-to-stock queueing system serving lead-time sensitive customers with a single type of product. Incorporating non-exponential service times in an exact method for make-to-stock queues is usually deemed difficult. Our analysis of the proposed policies is exact and requires the numerical inversion of the Laplace transform of the sojourn time of an order to be placed. The first policy assures that the long-run probability of delivering the product within the quoted lead-time is the same for all backlogged customers. The second policy is a refinement of the first which improves the profitability if customers are oversensitive to even short delays in delivery. Numerical results show that both policies perform close to the optimal policy that was characterized only for exponential service times. The new insight gained is that the worsening impact of the production time variability, which is felt significantly in systems accepting all customers by quoting zero lead times, decreases when dynamic lead-time quotation policies are employed

Catch composition of trawl fisheries in Mersin Bay with emphasis on catch biodiversity

This study presents the catch composition and biodiversity of Mersin Bay, northeastern Mediterranean, which is an important fishing ground for demersal trawls. A total of 182 hauls were performed on board a commercial trawler on the commercial fishing grounds between 15 September 2009 and 15 April 2013. The monthly changes in species composition were analyzed by conducting cluster analysis based on catch per unit effort (CPUE), nonmetric multidimensional scaling (nMDS), and correlation vectors, which were used to evaluate the discrete groups. Shannon–Wiener index (H’), its evenness (J’) component, and the Pielou evenness index were calculated to clarify temporal monthly changes. One hundred and thirty-five species belonging to 10 classes, 26 orders, and 71 families were identified. CPUE values were 1558 (individual/h) and 23.96 (kg/h), respectively. While the most abundant species were Mullusbarbatus in terms of IRI and CPUE (kg/h), Equulitesklunzingeri had the highest CPUE (N/h). Four clear clusters of the months were observed. The highest diversity was observed in November, with H’ = 3.28 and J’ = 0.74 index values. The results highlighted the differences of catch composition between fishing months

Waste management practices in thermal hotel enterprises in the scope of sustainability: A case of Sandıklı

Bu çalışmanın amacı otel işletmelerinde sürdürülebilirlik uygulamalarını ifade eden yeşil otel uygulamasının önemli bir parçasını oluşturan atık yönetiminin uygulanma düzeyini, eksikliklerini, yönetsel uygulamalar bağlamında termal oteller açısından örnek uygulamalar ile ortaya koymaktır. Araştırma kapsamında veriler, otel yöneticileri ile yarı yapılandırılmış mülakat yöntemi ve araştırmanın gerçekleştirildiği termal otel işletmelerine yapılan ziyaretlerde atık yönetimi amaçlı var olan uygulamaların gözlemlenmesi yoluyla temin edilmiştir. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre, işletmeler çevreye duyarlı atık yönetimi amaçlı uygulamaları kendi imkânları ve genel bilgileri doğrultusunda gerçekleştirmektedirler. Atık yönetimi kapsamında dikkate alınan temel hususlar, atıkların gruplandırılması, tehlikeli kimyasal atıklarının oluşumunun önlenmesine yönelik faaliyetlerdir. İlgili otel işletmelerinde yapılan gözlemler ve mülakatlar genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, atıkların işletme içinde tekrar kullanımı ve geri dönüşümü konusunda yeterli çabanın olmadığı tespit edilmiştirThe aim of this study, from the the point of thermal hotels’ view, is to demonstrate the implementation level and shortcomings of waste management in the context of administrative practices, which constitute an important part of green hotel practices under the sustainable managament practices. The data in this study were obtained through the semi-structured interviews with thermal hotel managers and observing the implementation of existing waste management practices in thermal hotel enterprises where this research is conducted. According to the results of this study, thermal hotels perfom environmentally sensitive waste management practices in accordance with their own capabilities and general knowledge. The main issues, taken into account under waste management, are identified as the categorization of wastes, and precautions aimed at preventing the formation of hazardous chemical waste. When the observations carried out at hotels and interviews are evaluated, it was determined that there was not enough effort to re-use the wastes wthin the hotel and to recycle

Reflections of sister city concept on tourism: The case of Afyonkarahisar

Amaç: Belediyelerin kardeş şehir ilişkileri sayesinde, kentler arasında kültür ve turizm alanında işbirliğinin gelişmesi de mümkün olabilecektir. İki kent arasındaki turizm faaliyetlerindeki işbirliğinin artmasıyla, turizm varışları gelişen ve artan bir seyir izleyebilecek ve turizm bu ilişkilerden olumlu etkilenecektir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı belediyelerin kardeş kent ilişkilerinin turizme yansımalarının ortaya konulmasıdır. Yöntem: Çalışmada literatür taraması ve görüşme yapılmıştır. İlk olarak kardeş kent kavramı, Dünya’da ve Türkiye’deki mevcut durumu hakkında bilgi verilmiştir. Bu ilişkilerin turizm açısından önemi vurgulanarak, bu noktada belediyelere düşen görevlerin neler olduğu araştırılmıştır. Bu kapsamda hazırlanan yarı yapılandırılmış görüşme formu kullanılarak konuyla ilgili Afyonkarahisar belediyesinin uygulamaları belirlenmiştir. Bulgular: Afyonkarahisar Belediye Başkan yardımcısı ile yapılan görüşme sonucunda konuyla ilgili uygulamaların yetersiz olduğu ve bu konuda daha aktif çalışılması gerektiği belirlenmiştir. Bu doğrultuda Afyonkarahisar belediyesinin kardeşlik ilişkilerini etkin olarak kullanamadıkları da ifade edilebilir. Sonuç ve Öneriler: Yapılan araştırmada, Afyonkarahisar belediyesinin kardeş kentleri ile turizm kapsamında değerlendirilebilecek ilişkiler konusunda yetersiz olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu kapsamda, “Uluslararası Turizm ve Sanat Festivali” ve Dünya’da ilk kez Mersin’de düzenlenen “1. Uluslararası Kardeş Şehirler Turizm Zirvesi” gibi etkinlik ve faaliyetlerin örnek alınarak, uygulama imkânı yaratılması önerilmiştir. Konuyla ilgili olarak bundan sonra yapılacak araştırmalarda; kardeş kent ilişkilerinin turizm özelinde ele alındığı başka belediyelerde de araştırma yapılması önerilebilir. Araştırmanın sınırları: Araştırma, Afyonkarahisar Belediyesinde gerçekleştirilen görüşme ile sınırlıdır. Orijinalliği/değeri: Gerek turizm, gerekse Afyonkarahisar özelinde konuyla ilgili daha önce çalışma yapılmamış olması bu araştırmanın, daha sonra yapılacak çalışmalara kaynak olması açısından bilim dünyasına katkı sağlayacağı ifade edilebilir.Aim of the Study: Due to the sister city agreements of the municipalities, it is also possible for cities to develop cooperation in the field of culture and tourism. As a result of increasing cooperation in the tourism activities between the two cities, tourist arrivals may also follow a developing course, and tourism will be positively affected by these relations. In this direction, the aim of the study is to reveal the reflections of the sister city relations of the municipalities. Method: In the study, literature review and interviewing were conducted at the beginning. Firstly, the sister city concept and the current state in the world and in Turkey was explained by emphasizing the importance of these relations in terms of tourism. The duties of the municipalities at this point were explored. In this context, the practices of Afyonkarahisar municipality related to the issue have been investigated using the prepared semi-structured interview form. Results And Suggestions: As a result of the interview with vice mayor of Afyonkarahisar Municipality, it was determined that applications related to the subject were inadequate and more active study was needed in this regard. In this respect, it can be said that Afyonkarahisar municipality cannot use the brotherhood relations effectively. Limitation: The study is limited to interviews conducted in Afyonkarahisar Municipality. Practıcal Implications : It has been found out in that Afyonkarahisar municipality has insufficient relations with its sister cities related to tourism area. In this context, the "International Tourism and Art Festival" and "1. International Sister Cities Tourism Summit", which was firstly held in Mersin in the world, should be taken as examples and it is proposed that application possibilities should be created. In the researches to be made thereafter; it is advisable that research in other municipalities may be carried out by taking tourism-specific sister city relations on focus. Originality: There isn’t any study carried out neither about tourism nor related to Afyonkarahisar. Therefore, this research can be a resource for future studies and can contribute to the world of literature

Distribution of thallium in soil and plants growing in the Keban Mining district of Turkey and determined by ICP-MS

In this study, we examined the Tl concentrations in soil and plants taken from an abandoned Pb-Zn-Cu mining area (Keban, Turkey). This region contains Pb, Zn, and Ag sulphide mineralizations that have been mined for 6000 years. For this purpose, soil and plant parts (including roots and shoots) were taken from 20 points in that area and the Tl concentrations determined by ICP-MS. The plants Euphorbia macroclada, Verbascum cheiranthifolium Boiss, and Astragalus gummifer were examined. The Tl levels in the soils ranged from 3.0–27.6 mg kg–1 which is 3–27 times higher than in uncontaminated soils (1.0 mg kg–1). The observed Tl levels in plant parts ranged from 0.05–4.62 mg kg–1 which is up to 92-times higher than the allowable levels (0.05 mg kg–1) proposed in the literature. It was also observed that high concentrations of metals such as Mo, Cu, Pb, Zn, Ag, and As inhibit the Tl uptake by plant roots and shoots

Bir orbital ensefaloselin tesadüfi tanısı-kapak miyokimisinin ötesi

A 38-years-old woman presented to our hospital for routine eye examination. She had no complaints but it was learnt that she has been followed up with the diagnosis of a left upper eyelid myokymia for more than 10 years in various ophthalmological centers. Since her eyelid movement was atypical for a myokymia, but in form of an orbital pulsation instead she has undergone an orbital magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan. She was coincidentally diagnosed to have a left frontoorbital encephalocele detected by MRI. She had no trauma or chronic illness in history, so the condition was diagnosed as a ‘congenital encephalocele’ which is lately detected since due to the absence of obvious proptosis or an active clinical complaint

Does mean platelet volume (MPV) have a role in evaluation of erectile dysfunction and its severity?

Purpose: The mean platelet volume (MPV) has important role in the pathophysiology of vascular diseases as a marker of the platelet activity. To investigate the association between mean platelet volume and erectile dysfunction (ED) and to search whether this marker can be used for diagnosis of ED. Materials and methods: Of the 312 patients with ED of various degrees, 122 patients without ED (IIEF-5>21) were included in this prospective study. Severity of ED was determined according to IIEF-5 questionnaire. MPV, fasting serum glucose, cholesterol, low density lipoprotein (LDL) and serum testosterone levels are also recorded. The mean platelet volume was calculated by the Coulter counter technique and sexual function was determined by International Index of Erectile Function erectile function domain (IIEF-5). Results: The mean age of patients was 58.4 years. The mean MPV value of patients with ED was significantly higher compared to the non-ED patients (8.91 vs. 8.22, p=0.0001). The severity of ED was shown to have a positive strong correlation with MPV values (r=0.719, p=0.001). Mean serum triglyceride, glucose, total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol levels were noted higher in patients with ED. MPV values were found to be significantly higher in patients with ED. Conclusion: MPV level shows significant correlation with severity of ED. This cheap laboratory test can have potential to be a marker of ED. Further prospective larger studies with vascular wall thickness measurements should be conducted