Firing versus Continuing Employment if an Economic Setback is Expected

A simple model evaluating a firm’s optimal employment reaction to an imminent recession is presented. Firing costs shelter employment – and this effect is typically amplified by uncertainty due to an option value of waiting. However, this job protection effect is reduced if the expected probability of a setback increases, and if the expected duration and size of a recession grows. If a severe recession is expected with a high probability the option to wait with firing looses its value, thus, immediate layoffs and market exits become the optimal strategy even before the recession turns out to be actual.Firing costs and uncertainty; probability, duration and size of recession

A One-Sector Model with Learning-by-doing, Investment, Leisure, and Optimal Growth

A one-sector model of endogenous growth based on the accumulation of real capital by saving/investing and accumulation of human capital via learning-by-doing is presented. Experience is measured by means of production output aggregated over time. Explicitly separating learning and real capital accumulation allows for an independent control of the learning process via working time. Though based on a simple one-sector model, accumulation of both types of capital is endogenously determined and a simultaneous dynamic optimisation of leisure/working time and of consumption/saving is executed. Transitional dynamics are derived and numerical simulations performed.

Learning-by-doing in Two Sectors, Production Structure, Leisure and Optimal Endogenous Growth

A model with two different production sectors and endogenous growth based on the accumulation of sector-specific human capital due to learning-by-doing is presented. Accumulation of experience is measured by means of sectoral production output aggregated over time. Growth is controlled by a dynamic optimisation of the use of time for working in the different sectors or for leisure. Transitional dynamics of production growth, especially of structural change towards a 'new' sector (with relatively scarce experience), of the optimal sectoral distribution of working time and of leisure as well as the corresponding steady state levels are derived and a numerical simulation is performed.

Layoffs in a Recession and Temporary Employment Subsidies when a Recovery is ExpectedLayoffs in a Recession and Temporary Employment Subsidies when a Recovery is Expected

Sunk firing costs shelter employment – and this effect is typically amplified by uncertainty due to an option value of waiting. Thus, if sunk firing costs are high, e.g. due to a employment protection legislation, and if recession related losses are with a high probability expected to be only transitory and not permanent, a relatively small employment subsidy will be sufficient to avoid layoffs by firms operating with current losses. Depending on the size of sunk hiring costs cyclical layoffs or even permanent job destruction can be avoided by short run subsidies during the beginning of a recession.recession; employment; sunk firing costs; uncertainty; employment subsidy

Efficiency Wages and Negotiated Profit-Sharing under Uncertainty

Efficiency wage effects of profit sharing are combined with option values related to stochastic future profit variations. These option effects occur if the workers’ profit share is fixed by long-term contracts. The Pareto-improving optimal level of the sharing ratio is calculated for two different scenarios. First, if the firm can unilaterally decide, the expected present value of net profits is maximised. Second, if the sharing ratio is based on bilateral Nash bargaining. Since a larger variation of revenues implies a higher redistribution of future profits, the inclusion of expected variations results in a lower worker’s profit ratio in both scenarios.

Play-hysteresis in supply as part of a market model

Consequences of path-dependent supply side on the market equilibrium are illustrated. Supply is only a subsystem of the entire market with its forcing variable (price) being endogenous from the perspective of the entire market. This results in feedbacks on the equilibrium of price and quantity if transient exogenous disturbances occur. Aggregate hysteresis is modelled by continuous dynamics showing similarities to ‘mechanical play’. This contrast the standard firm level modelling of hysteresis resulting from discontinuous (activity/inactivity) switches. Play dynamics are captured in a simple linearized way, just by adding two parameters to a supply equation

Economic Hysteresis with Multiple Inputs– a Simplified Treatment

Hysteresis in economics is up to now usually based on a representation of a system with only a single input variable, which has a persistent effect on an economic outcome (i.e. the output variable). However, in general there is more than one factor influencing economic decision problems, why the description of the path-dependency in relation to only one input variable may (possibly) be insufficient. The multidimensional path-dependence phenomenon is addressed (in mathematics and physics) by a vector-hysteresis system, with an input vector of two ore more variables. Unfortunately, these models are quite complicated for practical purposes in economics. However, since standard economic decisions are based on comparing economic values of alternatives (e.g. present values of investments), this can be used to reduce the dimensions of the hysteresis system. This paper outlines how the influence of several original input variables (e.g. price level and interest rate) is captured by the resulting variations of the present value of an investment. This economic value then can be used as a single signal/input variable of a modified hysteresis system. Since this system is dimensionally reduced to the standard hysteresis case with only a single input variable, the standard aggregation procedure for a situation with heterogeneous agents can be applied again

Modelling economic hysteresis losses caused by sunk adjustment costs

Transition from one economic equilibrium to another as a consequence of shocks is often associated with sunk adjustment costs. Firm specific sunk market entry investments (or sunk market exit costs) in case of a reaction to price shocks are an example. These adjustment costs lead to a dynamic supply pattern similar to hysteresis. In analogy to “hysteresis losses” in ferromagneti entry and exit cycles. We start from the micro level of a single firm and use explicit aggregation tools from hysteresis theory in mathematics and physics to calculate dynamic losses. We show that strong market fluctuations generate disproportionately large hysteresis losses for producers. This could give a reason for the implementation of stabilizing measures and policies to prevent strong (price) variations or, alternatively, to reduce the sunk entry and exit costs. However, the explicit inclusion of uncertainty (associated with an option value of waiting) is shown to reduce economic hysteresis losses

Layoffs in a Recession and Temporary Employment Subsidies when a Recovery is Expected

Sunk firing costs shelter employment – and this effect is typically amplified by uncertainty due to an option value of waiting. Thus, if sunk firing costs are high, e.g. due to a mployment protection legislation, and if recession related losses are with a high probability expected to be only transitory and not permanent, a relatively small employment subsidy will be sufficient to avoid layoffs by firms operating with current losses. Depending on the size of sunk hiring costs cyclical layoffs or even permanent job destruction can be avoided by short run subsidies during the beginning of a recession