Bayesian prediction of glacial discharge in Antartica using copulas

Glaciers are considered sensors of the Global Warming. The study of their mass balance is essential to understand their future behaviour. One of the components of this mass balance is the loss of water produced by melting, this is known as the glacier discharge. The aim of this work is to analyse the relationship among the glacier discharge and other meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation, and to find a model that allow us to forecast future values of the glacier discharge. In Chapter 2, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analysing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non-linear through time. A bivariate copula model is defined, where both, the marginal and copula parameters, vary periodically along time; following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection are also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any time point. In Chapter 3, as a second model, a vine copula structure is proposed to model the multivariate and nonlinear dependence among the glacier discharge and the other related meteorological variables. The multivariate distribution of these variables is divided in four cases according to the presence or not of positive discharge and/or positive precipitation. Then, each different case is modelled with a vine copula. Seasonal effects in this second model are captured by using different parameters for each season. The conditional probability of zero discharge for given meteorological conditions is obtained from the proposed joint distribution. Moreover, the structure of the vine copula allows us to derive the conditional distribution of the glacier discharge for the given meteorological conditions. Three different prediction methods are used and compared for the future values of the discharge. In order to improve the second model, Chapter 4 proposes a hierarchical structure where the relationships between the meteorological variables in each season and in each case are led by common hyperparameters. Bayesian inference is performed over the hierarchical structure with the help of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) techniques. All the proposed methodologies are applied to a large data base collected since 2002 by the GLACKMA association from a measurement station located in the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from the Collins glacier.Programa Oficial de Doctorado en Economía de la Empresa y Métodos CuantitativosPresidente: Juan Miguel Marín Diazaraque; Secretaria: Ana Justel Eusebio; Vocal: Patricia de Zea Bermúde

Perceived competence of experienced physical education teachers about the task as a didactic resource

El estudio que se presenta en el presente artículo trata de conocer la percepción del profesorado sobre su propia competencia referida al conocimiento del contenido y a la tarea como herramienta didáctica. En el estudio participaron un total de 173 docentes en Educación Física que realizan su función en las etapas de Primaria y Secundaria en 9 Comunidades Autónomas. Para la obtención de información cumplimentaron un cuestionario, realizándose, asimismo, un análisis audiovisual de 10 clases previamente grabadas. Los resultados muestran que los docentes, independientemente de la etapa educativa en la que imparten su docencia, de los años de experiencia docente y del tipo de tarea, buscan que el alumnado participe (con un sentido más lúdico o deportivo según la etapa educativa) de forma organizada y manteniendo las normas establecidas, no observándose modificaciones o ajustes de los modelos previamente verbalizados y/o ejemplificados.The study presented in this article attempts to comprehend the perception of teachers about their own competence in terms of knowledge of content and tasks as a teaching tool. The study included 173 physical education teachers while performing their role in Primary and Secondary stages in 9 autonomous regions. Information was obtained from a questionnaire, and analysis was carried out on 10 previously recorded classes. The results show that teachers, independently of the educational stage which is taught, years of teaching experience and type of task that students seeking to participate (with a more playful or sport as an educational stage) of maintaining an organized and established standards, observed no changes or adjustments to the models previously verbalized and / or exemplifie

Seasonal copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica

Modelling glacier discharge is an important issue in hydrology and climate research. Glaciers represent a fundamental water resource when melting of ice and snow contributes to runoff. Glaciers are also studied as natural global warming sensors. GLACKMA association has implemented one of their Pilot Experimental Catchment areas at the King George Island in the Antarctica which records values of the liquid discharge from Collins glacier. In this paper, we propose the use of time-varying copula models for analyzing the relationship between air temperature and glacier discharge, which is clearly non constant and non linear through time. A seasonal copula model is defined where both the marginal and copula parameters vary periodically along time following a seasonal dynamic. Full Bayesian inference is performed such that the marginal and copula parameters are estimated in a one single step, in contrast with the usual two-step approach. Bayesian prediction and model selection is also carried out for the proposed model such that Bayesian credible intervals can be obtained for the conditional glacier discharge given a value of the temperature at any given time point. The proposed methodology is illustrated using the GLACKMA real data where there is, in addition, a hydrological year of missing discharge data which were not possible to measure accurately due to problems in the sounding.We are very grateful to the GLACKMA association. The second author acknowledges financial support by UC3M-BS Institute of Financial Big Data at Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. The third author would like to thank the Russian, Argentinean, German, Uruguayan and Chilean Antarctic Programs for their continuous logistic support over the years. The crews of Bellingshausen, Artigas, and Carlini station as well as the Dallmann Laboratory provided a warm and pleasant environment during fieldwork. GLACKMA’s contribution was also partially financed by the European Science Foundation, ESF project IMCOAST (EUI2009-04068) and the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (CGL2007-65522-C02-01/ANT)

Study of the professional profiles and teacher training of physics teachers between Chile and Mexico

PHYSICS TEACHER TRAINING The physics teachers require, in addition to knowledge of the discipline, development of skills that allow them to plan and implement teaching strategies that help students acquire knowledge of the different branches of physics and their usefulness in different contexts (Arriaga et al., 2017). Thus, teacher training plays a fundamental role and can be approached from two perspectives: initial training (profile) and in-service training (teacher training) (Gómez et al., 2020; Campos, 2020). In Latin America, particularly in Chile and Mexico, the training of physics teachers focuses on their professional profile, so it is necessary to deepen teacher training, so that an ideal profile is achieved to teach physics classes (Ramírez & Medina, 2022). In general, the teaching of teachers can be divided into two: 1) courses on the didactics of physics; and 2) courses on the educational model of the school (Arriaga et al., 2017). In the work we are presenting, a study was conducted about the training of the physics teacher, creating indicators to know the ideal profile of the teacher, and proposing training tools that allow the teacher to approach the ideal profile, and a comparison of the results of the study between teachers of Chile and Mexico. MATERIALS AND METHODS For the preparation of the teacher and authorities’ evaluation instrument, work was carried out during the summer of 2019, taking as a sample authority from the Universidad de Guadalajara and Instituto Politécnico Nacional (both from Mexico) and the Universidad Austral de Chile (Chile). The expert validation methodology (Hernández-Sampieri et al., 2018) was used for the instrument validation and reliability process. The group of experts was made up of 7 doctors in physics education from Mexico, Chile, and Colombia. Application of instruments has been online both in México and Chile in 2022 and using software MAXQDA for the qualitative analysis. RESULTS Up to this moment, the project continues, however there are already some interesting results. The physics teacher requires continuous training, both disciplinary and teaching. The profile of the physics teacher in Mexico is more disciplinary, while in Chile it is a little closer to the teaching profile, therefore, the training options have a different orientation. The impact of both the profile and teacher training in the development of skills in students is still under investigation. REFERENCES Arriaga, C., Mora, C. & Ramírez, M. (2017). Impacto del perfil profesional de los profesores en los resultados académicos de los estudiantes de nuevo ingreso en el curso de introducción a la Física. Latin American Journal of Physics Education, 11(4), 4305-1-7. Campos, M. (2020). Interpretación de gráficas de variables cinemáticas y formación de profesores: un acercamiento a través del Conocimiento Didáctico del Contenido. Doctoral Thesis in Physics Education, Instituto Politécnico Nacional. Gómez, I., Ramírez, M. & Arriaga, C. (2020). El perfil del docente de física como factor en el desarrollo de las competencias del estudiante en el bachillerato. Revista Iberoamericana para la Investigación y el Desarrollo Educativo, 11(21),1-30. Hernández-Sampieri, R., Fernández, C., & Baptista, M. (2018). Metodología de la Investigación. McGraw Hill Education, México. Ramírez, M. & Medina, J. (2022). Estudio comparativo de los perfiles profesionales y formación docente de profesores de física entre Chile y México, In J. Slisko (Ed.). Proceedings of XXIX Workshop New Trends in Physics Teaching (pp. 53), Benemérita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla

La estructura curricular en la formación universitaria en psicología en Colombia..

PublishedEl currículo constituye una dimensión importante en la propuesta de formación universitaria. Su estructura depende de las configuraciones que legitiman el conocimiento apropiado para la transmisión de saberes en el escenario educativo. La literatura sobre el concepto es extensa en cuanto a los enfoques y formulaciones técnicas (Taba, 1979; Tanner y Tanner, 1980; Tyler, 1949)

Biophysical alterations in lipid rafts from human cerebral cortex associate with increased BACE1/APP interaction in early stages of Alzheimer's disease

In the present study, we have assessed the biophysical properties of lipid rafts from different brain areas in subjects exhibiting early neuropathological stages of Alzheimer's disease (AD). By means of steady-state fluorescence polarization analyses using two environment-sensitive fluorescent probes, we demonstrate that lipid rafts from cerebellum, and frontal and entorhinal cortices, exhibit different biophysical behaviors depending on the stage of the disease. Thus, while membrane anisotropies were similar in the cerebellum along stages, lipid rafts from frontal and entorhinal cortices at AD stages I/II and AD III were significantly more liquid-ordered than in control subjects, both at the aqueous interface and hydrophobic core of the raft membrane. Thermotropic analyses demonstrated the presence of Arrhenius breakpoints between 28.3-32.0 °C, which were not influenced by the disease stage. However, analyses of membrane microviscosity (ηapp) demonstrate that frontal and entorhinal lipid rafts are notably more viscous and liquid-ordered all across the membrane from early stages of the disease. These physicochemical alterations in lipid rafts do not correlate with changes in cholesterol or sphingomyelin levels, but to reduced unsaturation index and increased saturate/polyunsaturated ratios in phospholipid acyl chains. Moreover, we demonstrate that β-secretase/AβPP (amyloid-β protein precursor) interaction and lipid raft microviscosity are strongly, and positively, correlated in AD frontal and entorhinal cortices. These observations strengthens the hypothesis that physical properties of these microdomains modulate the convergence of amyloidogenic machinery toward lipid rafts, and also points to a critical role of polyunsaturated fatty acids in amyloidogenic processing of AβPP

Unidades virtuales de aprendizaje como mediadoras para el fortalecimiento de la comprensión lectora en el nivel inferencial

El propósito de este trabajo consiste, en describir y explicar los efectos de las Unidades Virtuales de Aprendizaje (UVA) como mediadoras en la comprensión lectora a nivel inferencial, en estudiantes de grado quinto en la Institución Educativa Alfredo Cock Arango en la ciudad de Medellín, Antioquia; desde la aplicación de una prueba diagnóstica que permita identificar las categorías que plantea (Martínez, 2013), la creación e implementación de las UVA y la evaluación de los progresos. La observación y posterior registro en el diario del profesor permite al docente investigador identificar y analizar tres categorías (genérica, enunciativa y textual) que son trabajadas desde el plan de intervención, permitiendo así la obtención de resultados que dan cuenta de cómo la mediación virtual contribuye al fortalecimiento de la comprensión lectora y de qué manera estos resultados sirven como insumo para que los docentes de aula propongan otras alternativas en sus procesos de enseñanza.The purpose of this work is to describe and explain the effects of the Virtual Units of Learning (UVA) as mediators in reading comprehension at the inferential level, in fifth grade students at the Alfredo Cock Arango Educational Institution in Medellín, Antioquia; from the application of a diagnostic test that allows identifying the categories it poses (Martínez, 2013), the creation and implementation of UVA and the evaluation of progress. The observation and subsequent recording in the teacher's journal allows the research teachers to identify and analyze three categories (generic, enunciative and textual) that are worked from the intervention plan, thus allowing the obtaining of results that show how virtual mediation contributes to the strengthening of reading comprehension and how these results serve as an input for classroom teachers to propose other alternatives in their teaching processes.Magíster en EducaciónMaestrí

Desarrollo del sistema de gestión de calidad para la empresa Proyntec SAS. Bajo la NTC ISO 9001:2015.

El presente proyecto de grado tuvo por objetivo general desarrollar el sistema de gestión de calidad de la Empresa Proyntec SAS, basados en la NTC ISO 9001:2015 que asegure el cumplimiento de los procesos y obligaciones contractuales, para lo cual se realizaron varias actividades enmarcadas en el enfoque mixto, el cual combina características de los enfoques cualitativos y cuantitativos. El desarrollo de este proyecto, permitió a Proyntec SAS, tener claros los puntos que necesita para lograr la mejora continua, estableciendo cuales son los problemas que afectan la calidad del servicio prestado. El principal problema encontrado es la demora en los tiempos de entrega establecidos para los clientes, este problema disminuye la calidad del servicio y genera pérdida de clientes. La falta de definición de procesos, en Proyntec SAS, genera problemas en el orden de cumplimiento de los servicios, ahora bien, para el desarrollo del SGC, se hace necesario tener definidos los procesos que componen la empresa. Por lo que la definición de los procesos fue el primer paso, de allí se desprende todo el desarrollo de este proyecto y permite tener claro los puntos donde se debió realizar el control estadístico y definir las mejoras necesarias por medio de la auditoría. Finalmente, el análisis del costo beneficio, permitió observar que se tiene una ganancia con el desarrollo del SGC en Proyntec SAS de forma gradual, dado que al prestar un servicio de calidad, se tienen clientes satisfechos que atraerán nuevos clientes.The graduation project general objective was to develop the system of quality management Business Proyntec SAS, based NTC ISO 9001: 2015 to ensure compliance with processes and contractual obligations, for which various activities framed in the approach were made mixed, which combines characteristics of qualitative and quantitative approaches. The development of this project, allowed Proyntec SAS, be clear about the points you need to achieve continuous improvement, establishing what are the problems that affect the quality of the service. The main problem is the delay in the time established for customer delivery, this problem decreases quality of service and generates loss of customers. The lack of definition of processes, Proyntec SAS, creates problems in the enforcement order services, however QMS development, it is necessary to have defined the processes that make up the company. So the definition of processes was the first step, hence the whole development of this project is clear and allows clear points where he was due to perform statistical control and identifying improvements required by the audit. Finally, the cost-benefit analysis, allowed us to observe that has a gain with the development of the QMS Proyntec SAS gradually, because by providing quality service, you have satisfied customers that will attract new customer

Derivados del tamoxifeno, procedimiento de obtención y sus aplicaciones

La invención se refiere a derivados del tamoxifeno, y sus usos como composición farmacéutica en el tratamiento de enfermedades que cursan con activación de la señalización por estrógenos o como herramienta para la identificación dianas moleculares del tamoxifeno o como emisor laser molecular. Además, la presente invención se refiere al procedimiento de obtención de estos compuestos y a composiciones que los comprenden.Peer reviewedUniversidad de la Laguna, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (España)A1 Solicitud de patente con informe sobre el estado de la técnic