Advancing Epidemiological Science Through Computational Modeling: A Review with Novel Examples

Computational models have been successfully applied to a wide variety of research areas including infectious disease epidemiology. Especially for questions that are difficult to examine in other ways, computational models have been used to extend the range of epidemiological issues that can be addressed, advance theoretical understanding of disease processes and help identify specific intervention strategies. We explore each of these contributions to epidemiology research through discussion and examples. We also describe in detail models for raccoon rabies and methicillin-resis-tant Staphylococcus aureus, drawn from our own research, to further illustrate the role of computation in epidemiological modeling

Are There Nuclear Structure Effects on the Isoscalar Giant Monopole Resonance and Nuclear Incompressibility near A~90?

"Background-free" spectra of inelastic $\alpha$-particle scattering have been measured at a beam energy of 385 MeV in $^{90, 92}$Zr and $^{92}$Mo at extremely forward angles, including 0$^{\circ}$. The ISGMR strength distributions for the three nuclei coincide with each other, establishing clearly that nuclear incompressibility is not influenced by nuclear shell structure near $A\sim$90 as was claimed in recent measurements.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in Phys. Lett.

Isoscalar Giant Monopole, Dipole, and Quadrupole Resonances in 90,92^{90,92}Zr and 92^{92}Mo

The isoscalar giant monopole, dipole, and quadrupole strength distributions have been deduced in $^{90, 92}$Zr, and $^{92}$Mo from "background-free" spectra of inelastic $\alpha$-particle scattering at a beam energy of 385 MeV at extremely forward angles, including 0$^{\circ}$. These strength distributions were extracted by a multipole-decomposition analysis based on the expected angular distributions of the respective multipoles. All these strength distributions for the three nuclei practically coincide with each other, affirming that giant resonances, being collective phenomena, are not influenced by nuclear shell structure near $A\sim$90, contrary to the claim in a recent measurement.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures; Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. C. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1607.0219

Lattice Distortion and Octupole Ordering Model in CexLa1-xB6

Possible order parameters of the phase IV in CexLa1-xB6 are discussed with special attention to the lattice distortion recently observed. A \Gamma_{5u}-type octupole order with finite wave number is proposed as the origin of the distortion along the [111] direction. The \Gamma_8 crystalline electric field (CEF) level splits into three levels by a mean field with the \Gamma_{5u} symmetry. The ground and highest singlets have the same quadrupole moment, while the intermediate doublet has an opposite sign. It is shown that any collinear order of \Gamma_{5u}-type octupole moment accompanies the \Gamma_{5g}-type ferro-quadrupole order, and the coupling of the quadrupole moment with the lattice induces the distortion. The cusp in the magnetization at the phase transition is reproduced, but the internal magnetic field due to the octupole moment is smaller than the observed one by an order of magnitude.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, submitted to J. Phys. Soc. Jp

Change of nuclear configurations in the neutrinoless double-β\beta decay of 130^{130}Te →\rightarrow 130^{130}Xe and 136^{136}Xe →\rightarrow 136^{136}Ba

The change in the configuration of valence protons between the initial and final states in the neutrinoless double-$\beta$ decay of $^{130}$Te $\rightarrow$ $^{130}$Xe and of $^{136}$Xe $\rightarrow$ $^{136}$Ba has been determined by measuring the cross sections of the ($d$,$^3$He) reaction with 101-MeV deuterons. Together with our recent determination of the relevant neutron configurations involved in the process, a quantitative comparison with the latest shell-model and interacting-boson-model calculations reveals significant discrepancies. These are the same calculations used to determine the nuclear matrix elements governing the rate of neutrinoless double-$\beta$ decay in these systems.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, 9 table

Community-associated Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia and Endocarditis among HIV Patients: A cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HIV patients are at increased risk of development of infections and infection-associated poor health outcomes. We aimed to 1) assess the prevalence of USA300 community-associated methicillin-resistant <it>Staphylococcus aureus </it>(CA-MRSA) among HIV-infected patients with <it>S. aureus </it>bloodstream infections and. 2) determine risk factors for infective endocarditis and in-hospital mortality among patients in this population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>All adult HIV-infected patients with documented <it>S. aureus </it>bacteremia admitted to the University of Maryland Medical Center between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2005 were included. CA-MRSA was defined as a USA300 MRSA isolate with the MBQBLO spa-type motif and positive for both the arginine catabolic mobile element and Panton-Valentin Leukocidin. Risk factors for <it>S. aureus</it>-associated infective endocarditis and mortality were determined using logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Potential risk factors included demographic variables, comorbid illnesses, and intravenous drug use.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 131 episodes of <it>S. aureus </it>bacteremia, 85 (66%) were MRSA of which 47 (54%) were CA-MRSA. Sixty-three patients (48%) developed endocarditis and 10 patients (8%) died in the hospital on the index admission Patients with CA-MRSA were significantly more likely to develop endocarditis (OR = 2.73, 95% CI = 1.30, 5.71). No other variables including comorbid conditions, current receipt of antiretroviral therapy, pre-culture severity of illness, or CD4 count were significantly associated with endocarditis and none were associated with in-hospital mortality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>CA-MRSA was significantly associated with an increased incidence of endocarditis in this cohort of HIV patients with MRSA bacteremia. In populations such as these, in which the prevalence of intravenous drug use and probability of endocarditis are both high, efforts must be made for early detection, which may improve treatment outcomes.</p

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Vancomycin-resistant Enterococci Co-colonization1

High prevalence of co-colonization increases risk for colonization or infection by vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Empiric Antibiotic Therapy for Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia May Not Reduce In-Hospital Mortality: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Appropriate empiric therapy, antibiotic therapy with in vitro activity to the infecting organism given prior to confirmed culture results, may improve Staphylococcus aureus outcomes. We aimed to measure the clinical impact of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy on mortality, while statistically adjusting for comorbidities, severity of illness and presence of virulence factors in the infecting strain.We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted to a tertiary-care facility from January 1, 2003 to June 30, 2007, who had S. aureus bacteremia. Time to appropriate therapy was measured from blood culture collection to the receipt of antibiotics with in vitro activity to the infecting organism. Cox proportional hazard models were used to measure the association between receipt of appropriate empiric therapy and in-hospital mortality, statistically adjusting for patient and pathogen characteristics.Among 814 admissions, 537 (66%) received appropriate empiric therapy. Those who received appropriate empiric therapy had a higher hazard of 30-day in-hospital mortality (Hazard Ratio (HR): 1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99, 2.34). A longer time to appropriate therapy was protective against mortality (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.03) except among the healthiest quartile of patients (HR: 1.44; 95% CI: 0.66, 3.15).Appropriate empiric therapy was not associated with decreased mortality in patients with S. aureus bacteremia except in the least ill patients. Initial broad antibiotic selection may not be widely beneficial

Geography-dependent horizontal gene transfer from vertebrate predators to their prey

Horizontal transfer (HT) of genes between multicellular animals, once thought to be extremely rare, is being more commonly detected, but its global geographic trend and transfer mechanism have not been investigated. We discovered a unique HT pattern of Bovine-B (BovB) LINE retrotransposons in vertebrates, with a bizarre transfer direction from predators (snakes) to their prey (frogs). At least 54 instances of BovB HT were detected, which we estimate to have occurred across time between 85 and 1.3 Ma. Using comprehensive transcontinental sampling, our study demonstrates that BovB HT is highly prevalent in one geographical region, Madagascar, suggesting important regional differences in the occurrence of HTs. We discovered parasite vectors that may plausibly transmit BovB and found that the proportion of BovB-positive parasites is also high in Madagascar where BovB thus might be physically transported by parasites to diverse vertebrates, potentially including humans. Remarkably, in two frog lineages, BovB HT occurred after migration from a non-HT area (Africa) to the HT hotspot (Madagascar). These results provide a novel perspective on how the prevalence of parasites influences the occurrence of HT in a region, similar to pathogens and their vectors in some endemic diseases