Sample Size Requirements for Calibrated Approximate Credible Intervals for Proportions in Clinical Trials

In Bayesian analysis of clinical trials data, credible intervals are widely used for inference on unknown parameters of interest, such as treatment effects or differences in treatments effects. Highest Posterior Density (HPD) sets are often used because they guarantee the shortest length. In most of standard problems, closed-form expressions for exact HPD intervals do not exist, but they are available for intervals based on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution. For small sample sizes, approximate intervals may be not calibrated in terms of posterior probability, but for increasing sample sizes their posterior probability tends to the correct credible level and they become closer and closer to exact sets. The article proposes a predictive analysis to select appropriate sample sizes needed to have approximate intervals calibrated at a pre-specified level. Examples are given for interval estimation of proportions and log-odds

On the predictive performance of a non-optimal action in hypothesis testing

In Bayesian decision theory, the performance of an action is measured by its pos- terior expected loss. In some cases it may be convenient/necessary to use a non- optimal decision instead of the optimal one. In these cases it is important to quantify the additional loss we incur and evaluate whether to use the non-optimal decision or not. In this article we study the predictive probability distribution of a relative measure of the additional loss and its use to define sample size determination criteria in a general testing set-up

Bayesian Set Estimation with Alternative Loss Functions: Optimality and Regret Analysis

Decision-theoretic interval estimation requires the use of loss functions that, typically, take into account the size and the coverage of the sets. We here consider the class of monotone loss functions that, under quite general conditions, guarantee Bayesian optimality of highest posterior probability sets. We focus on three specific families of monotone losses, namely the linear, the exponential and the rational losses whose difference consists in the way the sizes of the sets are penalized. Within the standard yet important set-up of a normal model we propose: 1) an optimality analysis, to compare the solutions yielded by the alternative classes of losses; 2) a regret analysis, to evaluate the additional loss of standard non-optimal intervals of fixed credibility. The article uses an application to a clinical trial as an illustrative example

Fluid-structure interaction of a 7-rods bundle : benchmarking numerical simulations with experimental data

Fluid flows through rod bundles are observed in many nuclear applications, such as in the core of Gen IV liquid metal fast breeder nuclear reactors (LMFBR). One of the main features of this configuration is the appearance of flow fluctuations in the rod gaps due to the velocity difference in the sub-channels between the rods. On one side, these pulsations are beneficial as they enhance the heat exchange between the rods and the fluid. On the other side, the fluid pulsations might induce vibrations of the flexible fuel rods, a mechanism generally referred to as Flow Induced Vibrations (FIV). Over time, this might result in mechanical fatigue of the rods and rod fretting, which eventually can compromise their structural integrity. Within the SESAME framework, a joint work between Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Ghent University (UGent), and NRG has been carried out with the aim of performing experimental measurements of FIV in a 7-rods bundle and validate numerical simulations against the obtained experimental data. The experiments performed by TU Delft consisted of a gravity-driven flow through a 7-rods, hexagonal bundle with a pitch-to-diameter ratio P/D = 1.11. A section of 200 mm of the central rod was made out of silicone, of which 100 mm were flexible. Flow measurements have been carried out with Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) whereas a high-speed camera has measured the vibrations induced on the silicone rod. The numerical simulations made use of the Unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations (URANS) approach for the turbulence modelling, and of strongly coupled algorithms for the solution of the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) problems. The measured frequency of the flow pulsations, as well as the mean rod displacement and vibration frequency, have been used to carry out the benchmark

Optimization and validation of a LC-HRMS method for aflatoxins determination in urine samples

Mycotoxins’ exposure by inhalation and/or dermal contact can occur in different branches of industry especially where heavily dusty settings are present and the handling of dusty commodities is performed. This study aims to explore the possible contribution of the occupational exposure to aflatoxins by analysing urine samples for the presence of aflatoxins B1 and M1 and aflatoxin B1-N7-guanine adduct. The study was conducted in 2017 on two groups of volunteers, the workers group, composed by personnel employed in an Italian feed plant (n = 32), and a control group (n = 29), composed by the administrative employees of the same feed plant; a total of 120 urine samples were collected and analysed. A screening method and a quantitative method with high-resolution mass spectrometry determination were developed and fully validated. Limits of detections were 0.8 and 1.5 pg/mLurine for aflatoxin B1 and M1, respectively. No quantitative determination was possible for the adduct aflatoxin B1-N7-guanine. Aflatoxin B1 and its adduct were not detected in the analysed samples, and aflatoxin M1, instead, was found in 14 samples (12%) within the range 1.9–10.5 pg/mLurine. Only one sample showed a value above the limit of quantification (10.5 pg/mLurine). The absence of a statistical difference between the mean values for workers and the control group which were compared suggests that in this specific setting, no professional exposure occurs. Furthermore, considering the very low level of aflatoxin M1 in the collected urine samples, the contribution from the diet to the overall exposure is to be considered negligible

Biomonitoring data for assessing aflatoxins and ochratoxin a exposure by italian feedstuffs workers

Mycotoxins exposure by inhalation and/or dermal contact is possible in different branches of industry especially where heavily dusty settings are present and the handling of dusty commodities is performed. This study aims to explore the validity of the biomonitoring as a tool to investigate the intake of mycotoxins in a population of workers operating in an Italian feed plant. Serum samples were collected for the determination of aflatoxins B1 (AFB1), AFB1-Lysine adduct and ochratoxin A (OTA). A method based on liquid-liquid extraction coupled with high resolution mass spectrometry determination was developed and fully validated. For AFB1, a high number of non-detected samples (90%) was found and no statistical difference was observed comparing workers and control group. None of the analyzed samples showed the presence of AFB1-Lysine adduct. For OTA, the 100% of the analyzed samples was positive with a 33% of the samples showing a concentration higher than the limit of quantification (LOQ), but no statistical difference was highlighted between the average levels of exposed and control groups. In conclusion, the presence of AFB1 and OTA in serum cannot be attributable to occupational exposure

Hemophagocytic inflammatory syndrome in ADA-SCID: report of two cases and literature review

Hemophagocytic inflammatory syndrome (HIS) is a rare form of secondary hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis caused by an impaired equilibrium between natural killer and cytotoxic T-cell activity, evolving in hypercytokinemia and multiorgan failure. In the context of inborn errors of immunity, HIS occurrence has been reported in severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) patients, including two cases of adenosine deaminase deficient-SCID (ADA-SCID). Here we describe two additional pediatric cases of ADA-SCID patients who developed HIS. In the first case, HIS was triggered by infectious complications while the patient was on enzyme replacement therapy; the patient was treated with high-dose corticosteroids and intravenous immunoglobulins with HIS remission. However, the patient required HLA-identical sibling donor hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) for a definitive cure of ADA-SCID, without HIS relapse up to 13 years after HSCT. The second patient presented HIS 2 years after hematopoietic stem cell gene therapy (GT), secondarily to Varicella-Zoster vaccination and despite CD4+ and CD8+ lymphocytes’ reconstitution in line with other ADA SCID patients treated with GT. The child responded to trilinear immunosuppressive therapy (corticosteroids, Cyclosporine A, Anakinra). We observed the persistence of gene-corrected cells up to 5 years post-GT, without HIS relapse. These new cases of children with HIS, together with those reported in the literature, support the hypothesis that a major dysregulation in the immune system can occur in ADA-SCID patients. Our cases show that early identification of the disease is imperative and that a variable degree of immunosuppression could be an effective treatment while allogeneic HSCT is required only in cases of refractoriness. A deeper knowledge of immunologic patterns contributing to HIS pathogenesis in ADA-SCID patients is desirable, to identify new targeted treatments and ensure patients’ long-term recovery

Role of prenatal magnetic resonance imaging in fetuses with isolated mild or moderate ventriculomegaly in the era of neurosonography: international multicenter study

Objectives To assess the role of fetal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in detecting associated anomalies in fetuses presenting with mild or moderate isolated ventriculomegaly (VM) undergoing multiplanar ultrasound evaluation of the fetal brain. Methods This was a multicenter, retrospective, cohort study involving 15 referral fetal medicine centers in Italy, the UK and Spain. Inclusion criteria were fetuses affected by isolated mild (ventricular atrial diameter, 10.0–11.9 mm) or moderate (ventricular atrial diameter, 12.0–14.9 mm) VM on ultrasound, defined as VM with normal karyotype and no other additional central nervous system (CNS) or extra‐CNS anomalies on ultrasound, undergoing detailed assessment of the fetal brain using a multiplanar approach as suggested by the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology guidelines for the fetal neurosonogram, followed by fetal MRI. The primary outcome of the study was to report the incidence of additional CNS anomalies detected exclusively on prenatal MRI and missed on ultrasound, while the secondary aim was to estimate the incidence of additional anomalies detected exclusively after birth and missed on prenatal imaging (ultrasound and MRI). Subgroup analysis according to gestational age at MRI (< 24 vs ≥ 24 weeks), laterality of VM (unilateral vs bilateral) and severity of dilatation (mild vs moderate VM) were also performed. Results Five hundred and fifty‐six fetuses with a prenatal diagnosis of isolated mild or moderate VM on ultrasound were included in the analysis. Additional structural anomalies were detected on prenatal MRI and missed on ultrasound in 5.4% (95% CI, 3.8–7.6%) of cases. When considering the type of anomaly, supratentorial intracranial hemorrhage was detected on MRI in 26.7% of fetuses, while polymicrogyria and lissencephaly were detected in 20.0% and 13.3% of cases, respectively. Hypoplasia of the corpus callosum was detected on MRI in 6.7% of cases, while dysgenesis was detected in 3.3%. Fetuses with an associated anomaly detected only on MRI were more likely to have moderate than mild VM (60.0% vs 17.7%; P < 0.001), while there was no significant difference in the proportion of cases with bilateral VM between the two groups (P = 0.2). Logistic regression analysis showed that lower maternal body mass index (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.85 (95% CI, 0.7–0.99); P = 0.030), the presence of moderate VM (aOR, 5.8 (95% CI, 2.6–13.4); P < 0.001) and gestational age at MRI ≥ 24 weeks (aOR, 4.1 (95% CI, 1.1–15.3); P = 0.038) were associated independently with the probability of detecting an associated anomaly on MRI. Associated anomalies were detected exclusively at birth and missed on prenatal imaging in 3.8% of cases. Conclusions The incidence of an associated fetal anomaly missed on ultrasound and detected only on fetal MRI in fetuses with isolated mild or moderate VM undergoing neurosonography is lower than that reported previously. The large majority of these anomalies are difficult to detect on ultrasound. The findings from this study support the practice of MRI assessment in every fetus with a prenatal diagnosis of VM, although parents can be reassured of the low risk of an associated anomaly when VM is isolated on neurosonography

Neutralizing antibodies to Omicron after the fourth SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine dose in immunocompromised patients highlight the need of additional boosters

IntroductionImmunocompromised patients have been shown to have an impaired immune response to COVID-19 vaccines.MethodsHere we compared the B-cell, T-cell and neutralizing antibody response to WT and Omicron BA.2 SARS-CoV-2 virus after the fourth dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in patients with hematological malignancies (HM, n=71), solid tumors (ST, n=39) and immune-rheumatological (IR, n=25) diseases. The humoral and T-cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination were analyzed by quantifying the anti-RBD antibodies, their neutralization activity and the IFN-γ released after spike specific stimulation.ResultsWe show that the T-cell response is similarly boosted by the fourth dose across the different subgroups, while the antibody response is improved only in patients not receiving B-cell targeted therapies, independent on the pathology. However, 9% of patients with anti-RBD antibodies did not have neutralizing antibodies to either virus variants, while an additional 5.7% did not have neutralizing antibodies to Omicron BA.2, making these patients particularly vulnerable to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The increment of neutralizing antibodies was very similar towards Omicron BA.2 and WT virus after the third or fourth dose of vaccine, suggesting that there is no preferential skewing towards either virus variant with the booster dose. The only limited step is the amount of antibodies that are elicited after vaccination, thus increasing the probability of developing neutralizing antibodies to both variants of virus.DiscussionThese data support the recommendation of additional booster doses in frail patients to enhance the development of a B-cell response directed against Omicron and/or to enhance the T-cell response in patients treated with anti-CD20