Predicting the start week of respiratory syncytial virus outbreaks using real time weather variables

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a major cause of bronchiolitis, has a large impact on the census of pediatric hospitals during outbreak seasons. Reliable prediction of the week these outbreaks will start, based on readily available data, could help pediatric hospitals better prepare for large outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models were constructed using weather data from 1985-2008 considering only variables that are available in real time and that could be used to forecast the week in which an RSV outbreak will occur in Salt Lake County, Utah. Outbreak start dates were determined by a panel of experts using 32,509 records with ICD-9 coded RSV and bronchiolitis diagnoses from Intermountain Healthcare hospitals and clinics for the RSV seasons from 1985 to 2008.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NB models predicted RSV outbreaks up to 3 weeks in advance with an estimated sensitivity of up to 67% and estimated specificities as high as 94% to 100%. Temperature and wind speed were the best overall predictors, but other weather variables also showed relevance depending on how far in advance the predictions were made. The weather conditions predictive of an RSV outbreak in our study were similar to those that lead to temperature inversions in the Salt Lake Valley.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We demonstrate that Naïve Bayes (NB) classifier models based on weather data available in real time have the potential to be used as effective predictive models. These models may be able to predict the week that an RSV outbreak will occur with clinical relevance. Their clinical usefulness will be field tested during the next five years.</p

Pre- and postnatal exposure to tobacco smoke and respiratory outcomes during the first year

The different role of prenatal and postnatal exposure to tobaccosmoke in respiratory outcomes in infants has not yet been clearly established.Our objective is to assess the effects of these exposures on the risk ofrespiratory outcomes during the first year of life of infants from a Spanishmulticenter cohort study. A total of 2506 wom en were monitored untildelivery. About 2039 infants made up the final population. The outcomes werecaused by the occurrence of the following: otitis, cough persisting for morethan 3 weeks, lower respiratory tract symptoms (wheezing or chestiness), andlower respiratory tract infections (bronchitis, bron chiolitis, or pneumonia).The relationship between prenatal and postnatal exposure and healthoutcomes was explored using logistic regression analys is. Maternal smokingduring pregnancy increased the odds for wheezing (OR: 1.41, 95% CI: 0.99 –2.01) and chestiness (OR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03–2.01). Postnatal exposure fromfathers was associated with otitis (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.01–1.54). Passiveexposure at work of non-smoking mothers during pregnancy was related tocough (OR: 1.62, 95% CI: 1.05–2.51). Exposu re to tobacco smoke was relatedto a higher risk of experiencing respiratory outcomes in young infants.Prenatal exposure was that most clearly associated with the respiratory outcomes analyzed

Prenatal exposure to cooking gas and respiratory health in infants is modified by tobacco smoke exposure and diet in the INMA birth cohort study

BACKGROUND: Studies that have evaluated the association between exposure to gas appliances emissions at home with respiratory health in children obtained heterogeneous and limited results. The aim of this study is to analyze the association between the use of gas cooking at home during pregnancy and respiratory problems in children during their first year of life. METHODS: In the years 2003 through 2008 pregnant women were enrolled in 4 Spanish areas and visited in different age-points following a common protocol. Outcomes studied (from a questionnaire) were any episode of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI), wheezing, persistent cough, chestiness and otitis. The association between exposure to gas cooking at home and respiratory outcomes was assessed using logistic regression and adjusting by confounding variables. Some potential effect modifiers (i.e. smoking, fruit and vegetables consumption) were examined. RESULTS: Among the 2003 children included in the study, a total of 731 (36.6%) had a LRTI episode, 693 (34.6%) experienced wheezing, 302 (15.5%) a persistent cough, 939 (47.4%) chestiness and 620 (31.2%) had an episode of otitis during their first year of life. Gas cookers were present in 45.5% of homes. Exposure to gas cooking in homes was not associated with respiratory outcomes Odds Ratios (OR) were close to 1 and not statistically significant. However, a positive association was found for otitis among infants whose mothers reported low intakes of fruit and vegetables during pregnancy [OR (95% CI) = 1.38 (1.01-1.9)] and also wheezing and chestiness were associated with gas cookers among those children whose mothers smoked during pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: In susceptible subjects (those whose mothers smoke and consumed below average fruit and vegetables) we found an association between exposure to gas cooking during pregnancy and risk of wheezing, chestiness and otitis during the first year of life. But more research is needed regarding not only gas cooking and respiratory health but also the possible effect modifier role of diet and tobacco

Domestic exposure to volatile organic compounds in relation to asthma and allergy in children and adults

Over the past decades, the prevalence of asthma, allergic disease and atopy has increased significantly and in parallel with the increased use of products and materials emitting volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the indoor environment. The purpose of this review is to examine the evidence of the relationship between quantitatively measured domestic exposure to VOCs and allergic diseases and allergy in children and adults. Sources, potential immune-inflammatory mechanisms and risks for development and severity of asthma and allergy have been addressed. Available evidence is based on studies that have mainly used observational designs of variable quality. Total, aromatic, aliphatic, microbial VOCs and aldehydes have been the most widely investigated VOC classes, with formaldehyde being the most commonly examined single compound. Overall, the evidence is inadequate to draw any firm conclusions. However, given indicative evidence from a few high-quality studies and significant potential for improvements in asthma outcomes in those with established disease, there is a need to consider undertaking further investigation of the relationship between domestic VOC exposure and asthma/allergy outcomes that should encompass both high-quality, robust observational studies and ultimately clinical trials assessing the impact of interventions that aim to reduce VOC exposure in children and adults with asthma