Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND: The isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures-including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing-might be required to reduce transmission. We aimed to estimate the reduction in transmission under different control measures across settings and how many contacts would be quarantined per day in different strategies for a given level of symptomatic case incidence. METHODS: For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40 162 UK participants. We simulated the effect of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing, and physical distancing scenarios. Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated reduction in the effective reproduction number and the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies. RESULTS: We estimated that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone: mean transmission reduction of 2% for mass random testing of 5% of the population each week, 29% for self-isolation alone of symptomatic cases within the household, 35% for self-isolation alone outside the household, 37% for self-isolation plus household quarantine, 64% for self-isolation and household quarantine with the addition of manual contact tracing of all contacts, 57% with the addition of manual tracing of acquaintances only, and 47% with the addition of app-based tracing only. If limits were placed on gatherings outside of home, school, or work, then manual contact tracing of acquaintances alone could have an effect on transmission reduction similar to that of detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where 1000 new symptomatic cases that met the definition to trigger contact tracing occurred per day, we estimated that, in most contact tracing strategies, 15 000-41 000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day. INTERPRETATION: Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimated that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number lower than 1 in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, European Commission, Royal Society, Medical Research Council

Gastric emptying following Finney pyloroplasty and vagotomy

Gastric emptying was evaluated in a series of unanesthetized dogs in the intact state, following Finney pyloroplasty, and with the addition of vagotomy. Sodium chromate labeled test meals of glucose, trisodium citrate, and trisodium citrate-fat were used. Finney pyloroplasty resulted in a trend for delayed emptying of fat from the stomach. The trisodium citrate test meal increased the levels of gastric secretion after pyloroplasty.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/44373/1/10620_2005_Article_BF02239291.pd

Tissue Localization and Extracellular Matrix Degradation by PI, PII and PIII Snake Venom Metalloproteinases: Clues on the Mechanisms of Venom-Induced Hemorrhage

20 páginas, 4 figuras, 3 tablas y 7 tablas en material suplementario.Snake venom hemorrhagic metalloproteinases (SVMPs) of the PI, PII and PIII classes were compared in terms of tissue localization and their ability to hydrolyze basement membrane components in vivo, as well as by a proteomics analysis of exudates collected in tissue injected with these enzymes. Immunohistochemical analyses of co-localization of these SVMPs with type IV collagen revealed that PII and PIII enzymes co-localized with type IV collagen in capillaries, arterioles and post-capillary venules to a higher extent than PI SVMP, which showed a more widespread distribution in the tissue. The patterns of hydrolysis by these three SVMPs of laminin, type VI collagen and nidogen in vivo greatly differ, whereas the three enzymes showed a similar pattern of degradation of type IV collagen, supporting the concept that hydrolysis of this component is critical for the destabilization of microvessel structure leading to hemorrhage. Proteomic analysis of wound exudate revealed similarities and differences between the action of the three SVMPs. Higher extent of proteolysis was observed for the PI enzyme regarding several extracellular matrix components and fibrinogen, whereas exudates from mice injected with PII and PIII SVMPs had higher amounts of some intracellular proteins. Our results provide novel clues for understanding the mechanisms by which SVMPs induce damage to the microvasculature and generate hemorrhage.This work was performed in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the PhD degree for Cristina Herrera at Universidad de Costa Rica.Peer reviewe

Stable isotope analysis provides new information on winter habitat use of declining avian migrants that is relevant to their conservation

Winter habitat use and the magnitude of migratory connectivity are important parameters when assessing drivers of the marked declines in avian migrants. Such information is unavailable for most species. We use a stable isotope approach to assess these factors for three declining African-Eurasian migrants whose winter ecology is poorly known: wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix, house martin Delichon urbicum and common swift Apus apus. Spatially segregated breeding wood warbler populations (sampled across a 800 km transect), house martins and common swifts (sampled across a 3,500 km transect) exhibited statistically identical intra-specific carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in winter grown feathers. Such patterns are compatible with a high degree of migratory connectivity, but could arise if species use isotopically similar resources at different locations. Wood warbler carbon isotope ratios are more depleted than typical for African-Eurasian migrants and are compatible with use of moist lowland forest. The very limited variance in these ratios indicates specialisation on isotopically restricted resources, which may drive the similarity in wood warbler populations' stable isotope ratios and increase susceptibility to environmental change within its wintering grounds. House martins were previously considered to primarily use moist montane forest during the winter, but this seems unlikely given the enriched nature of their carbon isotope ratios. House martins use a narrower isotopic range of resources than the common swift, indicative of increased specialisation or a relatively limited wintering range; both factors could increase house martins' vulnerability to environmental change. The marked variance in isotope ratios within each common swift population contributes to the lack of population specific signatures and indicates that the species is less vulnerable to environmental change in sub-Saharan Africa than our other focal species. Our findings demonstrate how stable isotope research can contribute to understanding avian migrants' winter ecology and conservation status

Postoperative IOP prophylaxis practice following uncomplicated cataract surgery: a UK-wide consultant survey

BACKGROUND: In order to minimise postoperative intraocular pressure (IOP) rise, after routine uncomplicated cataract surgery, prophylaxis may be adopted. Currently, there are no specific guidelines in this regard resulting in wide variation in practice across the UK. We sought to document these variations through a questionnaire survey. METHODS: A questionnaire was sent to all consultant ophthalmic surgeons in the UK. RESULTS: 62.6% of surgeons did not use any IOP lowering agents. 37.4% surgeons routinely prescribed some form of medication. The majority (86.8%) used oral diamox. 20.6% of surgeons said they based their practice on evidence, 43.3% on personal experience, and 17.6% on unit policy. Surprisingly, among the two groups of surgeons (those who gave routine prophylaxis, and those who did not) the percentages of surgeons quoting personal experience, unit policy, or presence of evidence was strikingly similar. The timing of the first postoperative IOP check varied from the same day to beyond 2 weeks. Only 20.2% of surgeons had ever seen an adverse event related to IOP rise; this complication is thus very rare. CONCLUSION: This survey highlights a wide variation in the practice and postoperative management of phacoemulsification cataract surgery. What is very striking is that there is a similar proportion of surgeons in the diametrically opposite groups (those who give or do not give routine IOP lowering prophylaxis) who believe that there practice is evidence based. The merits of this study suggests that consideration must be given to drafting a uniform guideline in this area of practice

Measuring our universe from galaxy redshift surveys

Galaxy redshift surveys have achieved significant progress over the last couple of decades. Those surveys tell us in the most straightforward way what our local universe looks like. While the galaxy distribution traces the bright side of the universe, detailed quantitative analyses of the data have even revealed the dark side of the universe dominated by non-baryonic dark matter as well as more mysterious dark energy (or Einstein's cosmological constant). We describe several methodologies of using galaxy redshift surveys as cosmological probes, and then summarize the recent results from the existing surveys. Finally we present our views on the future of redshift surveys in the era of Precision Cosmology.Comment: 82 pages, 31 figures, invited review article published in Living Reviews in Relativity, http://www.livingreviews.org/lrr-2004-

Male reproductive health and environmental xenoestrogens

EHP is a publication of the U.S. government. Publication of EHP lies in the public domain and is therefore without copyright. Research articles from EHP may be used freely; however, articles from the News section of EHP may contain photographs or figures copyrighted by other commercial organizations and individuals that may not be used without obtaining prior approval from both the EHP editors and the holder of the copyright. Use of any materials published in EHP should be acknowledged (for example, "Reproduced with permission from Environmental Health Perspectives") and a reference provided for the article from which the material was reproduced.Male reproductive health has deteriorated in many countries during the last few decades. In the 1990s, declining semen quality has been reported from Belgium, Denmark, France, and Great Britain. The incidence of testicular cancer has increased during the same time incidences of hypospadias and cryptorchidism also appear to be increasing. Similar reproductive problems occur in many wildlife species. There are marked geographic differences in the prevalence of male reproductive disorders. While the reasons for these differences are currently unknown, both clinical and laboratory research suggest that the adverse changes may be inter-related and have a common origin in fetal life or childhood. Exposure of the male fetus to supranormal levels of estrogens, such as diethlylstilbestrol, can result in the above-mentioned reproductive defects. The growing number of reports demonstrating that common environmental contaminants and natural factors possess estrogenic activity presents the working hypothesis that the adverse trends in male reproductive health may be, at least in part, associated with exposure to estrogenic or other hormonally active (e.g., antiandrogenic) environmental chemicals during fetal and childhood development. An extensive research program is needed to understand the extent of the problem, its underlying etiology, and the development of a strategy for prevention and intervention.Supported by EU Contract BMH4-CT96-0314

Quantification of the overall contribution of gene-environment interaction for obesity-related traits

The growing sample size of genome-wide association studies has facilitated the discovery of gene-environment interactions (GxE). Here we propose a maximum likelihood method to estimate the contribution of GxE to continuous traits taking into account all interacting environmental variables, without the need to measure any. Extensive simulations demonstrate that our method provides unbiased interaction estimates and excellent coverage. We also offer strategies to distinguish specific GxE from general scale effects. Applying our method to 32 traits in the UK Biobank reveals that while the genetic risk score (GRS) of 376 variants explains 5.2% of body mass index (BMI) variance, GRSxE explains an additional 1.9%. Nevertheless, this interaction holds for any variable with identical correlation to BMI as the GRS, hence may not be GRS-specific. Still, we observe that the global contribution of specific GRSxE to complex traits is substantial for nine obesity-related measures (including leg impedance and trunk fat-free mass).This article is freely available via Open Access. Click on the Publisher URL to access it via the publisher's site.published version, accepted version, submitted versio

Noninvasive, Transient and Selective Blood-Brain Barrier Opening in Non-Human Primates In Vivo

The blood-brain barrier (BBB) is a specialized vascular system that impedes entry of all large and the vast majority of small molecules including the most potent central nervous system (CNS) disease therapeutic agents from entering from the lumen into the brain parenchyma. Microbubble-enhanced, focused ultrasound (ME-FUS) has been previously shown to disrupt noninvasively, selectively, and transiently the BBB in small animals in vivo. For the first time, the feasibility of transcranial ME-FUS BBB opening in non-human primates is demonstrated with subsequent BBB recovery. Sonications were combined with two different types of microbubbles (customized 4–5 µm and Definity®). 3T MRI was used to confirm the BBB disruption and to assess brain damage