On the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic

A pandemic poses particular challenges to decision-making because of the need to continuously adapt decisions to rapidly changing evidence and available data. For example, which countermeasures are appropriate at a particular stage of the pandemic? How can the severity of the pandemic be measured? What is the effect of vaccination in the population and which groups should be vaccinated first? The process of decision-making starts with data collection and modeling and continues to the dissemination of results and the subsequent decisions taken. The goal of this paper is to give an overview of this process and to provide recommendations for the different steps from a statistical perspective. In particular, we discuss a range of modeling techniques including mathematical, statistical and decision-analytic models along with their applications in the COVID-19 context. With this overview, we aim to foster the understanding of the goals of these modeling approaches and the specific data requirements that are essential for the interpretation of results and for successful interdisciplinary collaborations. A special focus is on the role played by data in these different models, and we incorporate into the discussion the importance of statistical literacy, and of effective dissemination and communication of findings

Authors' response: on the role of data, statistics and decisions in a pandemic

"We would like to thank the discussants once more for adding their thoughtful comments.

Light- and temperature-dependent dynamics of chromophore and protein structural changes in bathy phytochrome Agp2

Bacterial phytochromes are sensoric photoreceptors that transform light absorbed by the photosensor core module (PCM) to protein structural changes that eventually lead to the activation of the enzymatic output module. The underlying photoinduced reaction cascade in the PCM starts with the isomerization of the tetrapyrrole chromophore, followed by conformational relaxations, proton transfer steps, and a secondary structure transition of a peptide segment (tongue) that is essential for communicating the signal to the output module. In this work, we employed various static and time-resolved IR and resonance Raman spectroscopic techniques to study the structural and reaction dynamics of the Meta-F intermediate of both the PCM and the full-length (PCM and output module) variant of the bathy phytochrome Agp2 from Agrobacterium fabrum. In both cases, this intermediate represents a branching point of the phototransformation, since it opens an unproductive reaction channel back to the initial state and a productive pathway to the final active state, including the functional protein structural changes. It is shown that the functional quantum yield, i.e. the events of tongue refolding per absorbed photons, is lower by a factor of ca. two than the quantum yield of the primary photochemical process. However, the kinetic data derived from the spectroscopic experiments imply an increased formation of the final active state upon increasing photon flux or elevated temperature under photostationary conditions. Accordingly, the branching mechanism does not only account for the phytochrome's function as a light intensity sensor but may also modulate its temperature sensitivity.DFG, 221545957, SFB 1078: Protonation Dynamics in Protein FunctionTU Berlin, Open-Access-Mittel – 202

Spin asymmetry A_1^d and the spin-dependent structure function g_1^d of the deuteron at low values of x and Q^2

We present a precise measurement of the deuteron longitudinal spin asymmetry A_1^d and of the deuteron spin-dependent structure function g_1^d at Q^2 < 1 GeV^2 and 4*10^-5 < x < 2.5*10^-2 based on the data collected by the COMPASS experiment at CERN during the years 2002 and 2003. The statistical precision is tenfold better than that of the previous measurement in this region. The measured A_1^d and g_1^d are found to be consistent with zero in the whole range of x.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

Observation of a J^PC = 1-+ exotic resonance in diffractive dissociation of 190 GeV/c pi- into pi- pi- pi+

The COMPASS experiment at the CERN SPS has studied the diffractive dissociation of negative pions into the pi- pi- pi+ final state using a 190 GeV/c pion beam hitting a lead target. A partial wave analysis has been performed on a sample of 420000 events taken at values of the squared 4-momentum transfer t' between 0.1 and 1 GeV^2/c^2. The well-known resonances a1(1260), a2(1320), and pi2(1670) are clearly observed. In addition, the data show a significant natural parity exchange production of a resonance with spin-exotic quantum numbers J^PC = 1-+ at 1.66 GeV/c^2 decaying to rho pi. The resonant nature of this wave is evident from the mass-dependent phase differences to the J^PC = 2-+ and 1++ waves. From a mass-dependent fit a resonance mass of 1660 +- 10+0-64 MeV/c^2 and a width of 269+-21+42-64 MeV/c^2 is deduced.Comment: 7 page, 3 figures; version 2 gives some more details, data unchanged; version 3 updated authors, text shortened, data unchange

Gluon polarization in the nucleon from quasi-real photoproduction of high-pT hadron pairs

We present a determination of the gluon polarization Delta G/G in the nucleon, based on the helicity asymmetry of quasi-real photoproduction events, Q^2<1(GeV/c)^2, with a pair of large transverse-momentum hadrons in the final state. The data were obtained by the COMPASS experiment at CERN using a 160 GeV polarized muon beam scattered on a polarized 6-LiD target. The helicity asymmetry for the selected events is = 0.002 +- 0.019(stat.) +- 0.003(syst.). From this value, we obtain in a leading-order QCD analysis Delta G/G=0.024 +- 0.089(stat.) +- 0.057(syst.) at x_g = 0.095 and mu^2 =~ 3 (GeV}/c)^2.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

The Spin-dependent Structure Function of the Proton g_1^p and a Test of the Bjorken Sum Rule

The inclusive double-spin asymmetry, A_1^p, has been measured at COMPASS in deepinelastic polarised muon scattering off a large polarised NH3 target. The data, collected in the year 2007, cover the range Q2 > 1 (GeV/c)^2, 0.004 < x < 0.7 and improve the statistical precision of g_1^p(x) by a factor of two in the region x < 0.02. The new proton asymmetries are combined with those previously published for the deuteron to extract the non-singlet spin-dependent structure function g_1^NS(x,Q2). The isovector quark density, Delta_q_3(x,Q2), is evaluated from a NLO QCD fit of g_1^NS. The first moment of Delta_q3 is in good agreement with the value predicted by the Bjorken sum rule and corresponds to a ratio of the axial and vector coupling constants g_A/g_V = 1.28+-0.07(stat)+-0.10(syst).Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

First Measurement of Chiral Dynamics in \pi^- \gamma -> \pi^- \pi^- \pi^+

The COMPASS collaboration at CERN has investigated the \pi^- \gamma -> \pi^- \pi^- \pi^+ reaction at center-of-momentum energy below five pion masses, sqrt(s) < 5 m(\pi), embedded in the Primakoff reaction of 190 GeV pions impinging on a lead target. Exchange of quasi-real photons is selected by isolating the sharp Coulomb peak observed at smallest momentum transfers, t' < 0.001 (GeV/c)^2. Using partial-wave analysis techniques, the scattering intensity of Coulomb production described in terms of chiral dynamics and its dependence on the 3\pi-invariant mass m(3\pi) = sqrt(s) were extracted. The absolute cross section was determined in seven bins of $\sqrt{s}$ with an overall precision of 20%. At leading order, the result is found to be in good agreement with the prediction of chiral perturbation theory over the whole energy range investigated.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

First Measurement of the Transverse Spin Asymmetries of the Deuteron in Semi-Inclusive Deep Inelastic Scattering

First measurements of the Collins and Sivers asymmetries of charged hadrons produced in deep-inelastic scattering of muons on a transversely polarized 6-LiD target are presented. The data were taken in 2002 with the COMPASS spectrometer using the muon beam of the CERN SPS at 160 GeV/c. The Collins asymmetry turns out to be compatible with zero, as does the measured Sivers asymmetry within the present statistical errors.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figure