Processes controlling the vertical aerosol distribution in marine stratocumulus regions - a sensitivity study using the climate model NorESM1-M

The vertical distribution of aerosols plays an important role in determining the effective radiative forcing from aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. Here, a number of processes controlling the vertical distribution of aerosol in five subtropical marine stratocumulus regions in the climate model NorESM1-M are investigated, with a focus on the total aerosol extinction. A comparison with satellite lidar data (CALIOP, Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) shows that the model underestimates aerosol extinction throughout the troposphere, especially elevated aerosol layers in the two regions where they are seen in observations. It is found that the shape of the vertical aerosol distribution is largely determined by the aerosol emission and removal processes in the model, primarily through the injection height, emitted particle size, and wet scavenging. In addition, the representation of vertical transport related to shallow convection and entrainment is found to be important, whereas alterations in aerosol optical properties and cloud microphysics parameterizations have smaller effects on the vertical aerosol extinction distribution. However, none of the alterations made are sufficient for reproducing the observed vertical distribution of aerosol extinction, neither in magnitude nor in shape. Interpolating the vertical levels of CALIOP to the corresponding model levels leads to better agreement in the boundary layer and highlights the importance of the vertical resolution

Values in climate modelling: testing the practical applicability of the Moral Imagination ideal

There is much debate on how social values should influence scientific research. However, the question of practical applicability of philosophers’ normative proposals has received less attention. Here, we test the attainability of Matthew J. Brown’s (2020) Moral Imagination ideal (MI ideal), which aims to help scientists to make warranted value-judgements through reflecting on goals, options, values, and stakeholders of research. Here, the tools of the MI ideal are applied to a climate modelling setting, where researchers are developing aerosol-cloud interaction (ACI) parametrizations in an Earth System Model with the broader goal of improving climate sensitivity estimation. After the identification of minor obstacles to applying the MI ideal, we propose two ways to increase its applicability. First, its tools should be accompanied with more concrete guidance for identifying how social values enter more technical decisions in scientific research. Second, since research projects can have multiple goals, examining the alignment between broader societal aims of research and more technical goals should be part of the tools of the MI ideal

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks

How do value-judgements enter model-based assessments of climate sensitivity?

Philosophers argue that many choices in science are influenced by values or have value-implications, ranging from the preference for some research method’s qualities to ethical estimation of the consequences of error. Based on the argument that awareness of values in the scientific process is a necessary first step to both avoid bias and attune science best to the needs of society, an analysis of the role of values in the physical climate science production process is provided. Model-based assessment of climate sensitivity is taken as an illustrative example; climate sensitivity is useful here because of its key role in climate science and relevance for policy, by having been the subject of several assessments over the past decades including a recent shift in assessment method, and because it enables insights that apply to numerous other aspects of climate science. It is found that value-judgements are relevant at every step of the model-based assessment process, with a differentiated role of non-epistemic values across the steps, impacting the assessment in various ways. Scrutiny of current philosophical norms for value-management highlights the need for those norms to be re-worked for broader applicability to climate science. Recent development in climate science turning away from direct use of models for climate sensitivity assessment also gives the opportunity to start investigating the role of values in alternative assessment methods, highlighting similarities and differences in terms of the role of values that encourage further study

Machine Learning Approach to Investigating the Relative Importance of Meteorological and Aerosol-Related Parameters in Determining Cloud Microphysical Properties

Aerosol effects on cloud properties are notoriously difficult to disentangle from variations driven by meteorological factors. Here, a machine learning model is trained on reanalysis data and satellite retrievals to predict cloud microphysical properties, as a way to illustrate the relative importance of meteorology and aerosol, respectively, on cloud properties. It is found that cloud droplet effective radius can be predicted with some skill from only meteorological information, including estimated air mass origin and cloud top height. For ten geographical regions the mean coefficient of determination is 0.41 and normalised root-mean square error 24%. The machine learning model thereby performs better than a reference linear regression model, and a model predicting the climatological mean. A gradient boosting regression performs on par with a neural network regression model. Adding aerosol information as input to the model improves its skill somewhat, but the difference is small and the direction of the influence of changing aerosol burden on cloud droplet effective radius is not consistent across regions, and thereby also not always consistent with what is expected from cloud brightening

The tumour suppressor SOX11 is associated with improved survival among high grade epithelial ovarian cancers and is regulated by reversible promoter methylation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The neural transcription factor SOX11 has been described as a prognostic marker in epithelial ovarian cancers (EOC), however its role in individual histological subtypes and tumour grade requires further clarification. Furthermore, methylation-dependent silencing of SOX11 has been reported for B cell lymphomas and indicates that epigenetic drugs may be used to re-express this tumour suppressor, but information on SOX11 promoter methylation in EOC is still lacking.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>SOX11 expression and clinicopathological data was compared using χ²test in a cohort of 154 cases of primary invasive EOC. Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log rank test were applied to evaluate ovarian cancer-specific survival (OCSS) and overall survival (OS) in strata, according to SOX11 expression. Also, the methylation status of the SOX11 promoter was determined by sodium bisulfite sequencing and methylation specific PCR (MSP). Furthermore, the effect of ectopic overexpression of SOX11 on proliferation was studied through [3H]-thymidine incorporation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SOX11 expression was associated with an improved survival of patients with high grade EOC, although not independent of stage. Further analyses of EOC cell lines showed that SOX11 mRNA and protein were expressed in two of five cell lines, correlating with promoter methylation status. Demethylation was successfully performed using 5'-Aza-2'deoxycytidine (5-Aza-dC) resulting in SOX11 mRNA and protein expression in a previously negative EOC cell line. Furthermore, overexpression of SOX11 in EOC cell lines confirmed the growth regulatory role of SOX11.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>SOX11 is a functionally associated protein in EOC with prognostic value for high-grade tumours. Re-expression of SOX11 in EOC indicates a potential use of epigenetic drugs to affect cellular growth in SOX11-negative tumours.</p

Tropical and Boreal Forest Atmosphere Interactions: A Review

This review presents how the boreal and the tropical forests affect the atmosphere, its chemical composition, its function, and further how that affects the climate and, in return, the ecosystems through feedback processes. Observations from key tower sites standing out due to their long-term comprehensive observations: The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory in Central Amazonia, the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory in Siberia, and the Station to Measure Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations at Hyytiala in Finland. The review is complemented by short-term observations from networks and large experiments.The review discusses atmospheric chemistry observations, aerosol formation and processing, physiochemical aerosol, and cloud condensation nuclei properties and finds surprising similarities and important differences in the two ecosystems. The aerosol concentrations and chemistry are similar, particularly concerning the main chemical components, both dominated by an organic fraction, while the boreal ecosystem has generally higher concentrations of inorganics, due to higher influence of long-range transported air pollution. The emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are dominated by isoprene and monoterpene in the tropical and boreal regions, respectively, being the main precursors of the organic aerosol fraction.Observations and modeling studies show that climate change and deforestation affect the ecosystems such that the carbon and hydrological cycles in Amazonia are changing to carbon neutrality and affect precipitation downwind. In Africa, the tropical forests are so far maintaining their carbon sink.It is urgent to better understand the interaction between these major ecosystems, the atmosphere, and climate, which calls for more observation sites, providing long-term data on water, carbon, and other biogeochemical cycles. This is essential in finding a sustainable balance between forest preservation and reforestation versus a potential increase in food production and biofuels, which are critical in maintaining ecosystem services and global climate stability. Reducing global warming and deforestation is vital for tropical forests

Tropical and Boreal Forest Atmosphere Interactions : A Review

This review presents how the boreal and the tropical forests affect the atmosphere, its chemical composition, its function, and further how that affects the climate and, in return, the ecosystems through feedback processes. Observations from key tower sites standing out due to their long-term comprehensive observations: The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory in Central Amazonia, the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory in Siberia, and the Station to Measure Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations at Hyytiala in Finland. The review is complemented by short-term observations from networks and large experiments. The review discusses atmospheric chemistry observations, aerosol formation and processing, physiochemical aerosol, and cloud condensation nuclei properties and finds surprising similarities and important differences in the two ecosystems. The aerosol concentrations and chemistry are similar, particularly concerning the main chemical components, both dominated by an organic fraction, while the boreal ecosystem has generally higher concentrations of inorganics, due to higher influence of long-range transported air pollution. The emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are dominated by isoprene and monoterpene in the tropical and boreal regions, respectively, being the main precursors of the organic aerosol fraction. Observations and modeling studies show that climate change and deforestation affect the ecosystems such that the carbon and hydrological cycles in Amazonia are changing to carbon neutrality and affect precipitation downwind. In Africa, the tropical forests are so far maintaining their carbon sink. It is urgent to better understand the interaction between these major ecosystems, the atmosphere, and climate, which calls for more observation sites, providing long-term data on water, carbon, and other biogeochemical cycles. This is essential in finding a sustainable balance between forest preservation and reforestation versus a potential increase in food production and biofuels, which are critical in maintaining ecosystem services and global climate stability. Reducing global warming and deforestation is vital for tropical forests.Peer reviewe

Tropical and Boreal Forest Atmosphere Interactions : A Review

This review presents how the boreal and the tropical forests affect the atmosphere, its chemical composition, its function, and further how that affects the climate and, in return, the ecosystems through feedback processes. Observations from key tower sites standing out due to their long-term comprehensive observations: The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory in Central Amazonia, the Zotino Tall Tower Observatory in Siberia, and the Station to Measure Ecosystem-Atmosphere Relations at Hyytiala in Finland. The review is complemented by short-term observations from networks and large experiments. The review discusses atmospheric chemistry observations, aerosol formation and processing, physiochemical aerosol, and cloud condensation nuclei properties and finds surprising similarities and important differences in the two ecosystems. The aerosol concentrations and chemistry are similar, particularly concerning the main chemical components, both dominated by an organic fraction, while the boreal ecosystem has generally higher concentrations of inorganics, due to higher influence of long-range transported air pollution. The emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are dominated by isoprene and monoterpene in the tropical and boreal regions, respectively, being the main precursors of the organic aerosol fraction. Observations and modeling studies show that climate change and deforestation affect the ecosystems such that the carbon and hydrological cycles in Amazonia are changing to carbon neutrality and affect precipitation downwind. In Africa, the tropical forests are so far maintaining their carbon sink. It is urgent to better understand the interaction between these major ecosystems, the atmosphere, and climate, which calls for more observation sites, providing long-term data on water, carbon, and other biogeochemical cycles. This is essential in finding a sustainable balance between forest preservation and reforestation versus a potential increase in food production and biofuels, which are critical in maintaining ecosystem services and global climate stability. Reducing global warming and deforestation is vital for tropical forests.Peer reviewe