Potential impacts of offshore oil spills on polar bears in the Chukchi Sea

Sea ice decline is anticipated to increase human access to the Arctic Ocean allowing for offshore oil and gas development in once inaccessible areas. Given the potential negative consequences of an oil spill on marine wildlife populations in the Arctic, it is important to understand the magnitude of impact a large spill could have on wildlife to inform response planning efforts. In this study we simulated oil spills that released 25,000 barrels of oil for 30 days in autumn originating from two sites in the Chukchi Sea (one in Russia and one in the U.S.) and tracked the distribution of oil for 76 days. We then determined the potential impact such a spill might have on polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and their habitat by overlapping spills with maps of polar bear habitat and movement trajectories. Only a small proportion (1 -10%) of high-value polar bear sea ice habitat was directly affected by oil sufficient to impact bears. However, 27-38% of polar bears in the region were potentially exposed to oil. Oil consistently had the highest probability of reaching Wrangel and Herald islands, important areas of denning and summer terrestrial habitat. Oil did not reach polar bears until approximately 3 weeks after the spills. Our study found the potential for significant impacts to polar bears under a worst case discharge scenario, but suggests that there is a window of time where effective containment efforts could minimize exposure to bears. Our study provides a framework for wildlife managers and planners to assess the level of response that would be required to treat exposed wildlife and where spill response equipment might be best stationed. While the size of spill we simulated has a low probability of occurring, it provides an upper limit for planners to consider when crafting response plans

Photochemical oxidation of oil reduced the effectiveness of aerial dispersants applied in response to the Deepwater Horizon spill

Author Posting. © American Chemical Society, 2018. This is an open access article published under an ACS AuthorChoice License. The definitive version was published in Environmental Science and Technology Letters 5 (2018): 226–231, doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.8b00084.Chemical dispersants are one of many tools used to mitigate the overall environmental impact of oil spills. In principle, dispersants break up floating oil into small droplets that disperse into the water column where they are subject to multiple fate and transport processes. The effectiveness of dispersants typically decreases as oil weathers in the environment. This decrease in effectiveness is often attributed to evaporation and emulsification, with the contribution of photochemical weathering assumed to be negligible. Here, we aim to test this assumption using Macondo well oil released during the Deepwater Horizon spill as a case study. Our results indicate that the effects of photochemical weathering on Deepwater Horizon oil properties and dispersant effectiveness can greatly outweigh the effects of evaporative weathering. The decrease in dispersant effectiveness after light exposure was principally driven by the decreased solubility of photo-oxidized crude oil residues in the solvent system that comprises COREXIT EC9500A. Kinetic modeling combined with geospatial analysis demonstrated that a considerable fraction of aerial applications targeting Deepwater Horizon surface oil had low dispersant effectiveness. Collectively, the results of this study challenge the paradigm that photochemical weathering has a negligible impact on the effectiveness of oil spill response and provide critical insights into the “window of opportunity” to apply chemical dispersants in response to oil spills in sunlit waters.This work was supported, in part, by National Science Foundation Grant OCE-1333148, Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Grants 015, SA 16-30, the DEEP-C consortium, and the Clark Family Foundation, Inc. EPA funding was provided to R.N.C. from the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund

Oil fate and mass balance for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill

Based on oil fate modeling of the Deepwater Horizon spill through August 2010, during June and July 2010, ~89% of the oil surfaced, ~5% entered (by dissolving or as microdroplets) the deep plume (\u3e900 m), and ~6% dissolved and biodegraded between 900 m and 40 m. Subsea dispersant application reduced surfacing oil by ~7% and evaporation of volatiles by ~26%. By July 2011, of the total oil, ~41% evaporated, ~15% was ashore and in nearshore (\u3c10 m) sediments, ~3% was removed by responders, ~38.4% was in the water column (partially degraded; 29% shallower and 9.4% deeper than 40 m), and ~2.6% sedimented in waters \u3e10 m (including 1.5% after August 2010). Volatile and soluble fractions that did not evaporate biodegraded by the end of August 2010, leaving residual oil to disperse and potentially settle. Model estimates were validated by comparison to field observations of floating oil and atmospheric emissions

Scaling restoration of American lobsters: Combined demographic and discounting model for an exploited species

Ecological theory does not currently allow precise predictions of the consequences of ecological restoration. Ecological restoration and species enhancement projects could be profitably used to test theoretically based predictions, but only if theory were first applied to develop quantitative predictions suitable for testing. Here, we review what is known about factors limiting population size and production of the American lobster Homarus americanus, and use that information to construct a demographic life-table model of population dynamics. We then use the model to evaluate alternative options for enhancing lobster population size and production. Because this species represents an example of a population subjected to intense human exploitation as a target of commercial fisheries, which has stimulated much research on its biology, demographic modeling is facilitated. Furthermore, intervention into the fishery provides a viable restoration option available only to exploited species. We apply the economic concept of discounting (of future pay-back in the form of restoration, analogous to being paid interest on a loan) to allow quantification of the scale of restoration needed to compensate for both the magnitude of the estimated loss of American lobsters and the time lags between loss and restoration following a major oil spill. Quantification of benefits is rarely performed for restoration projects to guide compensation for natural resource damages caused by environmental incidents. The methods and approach developed here can help address this past failure in order to provide compensating ecological and human services equal to those lost. The approach represents a significant step forward in conceptually and quantitatively addressing restoration needs. The methods may be applied to other species, especially those that are exploited by humans, but also others that can feasibly be restored to mitigate impacts of adverse environmental events

Restoration that targets function as opposed to structure: replacing lost bivalve production and filtration

ABSTRACT: Abundant suspension-feeding bivalves have a dominant organizing role in shallow aquatic systems by filtering overlying waters, affecting biogeochemical processing, and diverting production from the water column to the benthos. In degraded aquatic systems where bivalve populations have been reduced, successful restoration of ecosystem functions may be achieved by targeting the revival of bivalve populations. The ‘North Cape’ oil spill on the coast of Rhode Island (USA) provides an opportunity to demonstrate the feasibility of scaling bivalve restoration to meet quantitative goals of enhanced production. After this oil spill, mortalities of bivalves were estimated by impact assessment modeling of acute toxicity, and results were confirmed by comparisons with counts of dead and moribund animals on local beaches. Computation of lost bivalve production included future production expected from affected animals, had they lived out their expected life spans. This calculation of production forgone required a demographic model that combined age-specific mortality with individual growth. Application of this modeling approach to surf clams Spisula solidissima, the species that comprised 97% of the total loss of bivalve production from the spill, illustrates the detailed implementation of scaling restoration to match estimates of losses. We consider the factors known to limit abundance and production of surf clams and other marine bivalves (hard clams, American oysters and bay scallops) and review the advantages of hatchery stocking, transplantation, habitat restoration, and reduction of fishing pressure in selecting a reliable and efficient restoration action. Age-specific estimates of the scale of population enhancement required to restore production showed that fewer additional animals were needed when larger (older) animals were added, but at the expense of greater grow-out requirements. Relaxation of fishing was most effective for hard clams. Accurate scaling of restoration was most sensitive to mortality rate, and the most efficient restoration involving seeding of small bivalves would be accomplished using surf clams. Monitoring of the restoration option chosen to compensate for the bivalve loss following the ‘North Cape’ oil spill can serve to test the underlying demographic assumptions and accuracy of the restoration scaling

Validation of Oil Spill Transport and Fate Modeling in Arctic Ice

Reliability of oil spill modeling in Arctic waters for response planning and risk assessments depends on the accuracy of winds, currents, and ice data (cover and drift) used as input. We compared predicted transport in ice, using ice and ocean model results as input, with observed drifter trajectories in the Beaufort Sea and an experimental oil release in the Barents Sea. The ice models varied in ice rheology algorithms used (i.e., Elastic-Viscous-Plastic [EVP], presently used in climate models, versus a new Elasto-Brittle [EB] approach in pack ice) and the time averaging of their outputs, which were provided as input to oil spill models. Evaluations of model performance (skill) against drifters showed improvement using EB instead of EVP rheology. However, model skill was degraded by time-averaging of ocean and ice model vectors before input to the oil spill model. While the accuracy of individual oil model trajectories projected weeks to months into the future is expected to be low, in the event of a spill, forecasts could be updated frequently with satellite and other observations to improve reliability. Comparisons of modeled trajectories with drifters verified that use of the ice-ocean models for ensemble modeling as part of risk assessments is reliable.The accepted manuscript in pdf format is listed with the files at the bottom of this page. The presentation of the authors' names and (or) special characters in the title of the manuscript may differ slightly between what is listed on this page and what is listed in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript; that in the pdf file of the accepted manuscript is what was submitted by the author

Partial Photochemical Oxidation Was a Dominant Fate of <i>Deepwater Horizon</i> Surface Oil

Following the <i>Deepwater Horizon</i> (DWH) blowout in 2010, oil floated on the Gulf of Mexico for over 100 days. In the aftermath of the blowout, substantial accumulation of partially oxidized surface oil was reported, but the pathways that formed these oxidized residues are poorly constrained. Here we provide five quantitative lines of evidence demonstrating that oxidation by sunlight largely accounts for the partially oxidized surface oil. First, residence time on the sunlit sea surface, where photochemical reactions occur, was the strongest predictor of partial oxidation. Second, two-thirds of the partial oxidation from 2010 to 2016 occurred in less than 10 days on the sunlit sea surface, prior to coastal deposition. Third, multiple diagnostic biodegradation indices, including octadecane to phytane, suggest that partial oxidation of oil on the sunlit sea surface was largely driven by an abiotic process. Fourth, in the laboratory, the dominant photochemical oxidation pathway of DWH oil was partial oxidation to oxygenated residues rather than complete oxidation to CO₂. Fifth, estimates of partial photo-oxidation calculated with photochemical rate modeling overlap with observed oxidation. We suggest that photo-oxidation of surface oil has fundamental implications for the response approach, damage assessment, and ecosystem restoration in the aftermath of an oil spill, and that oil fate models for the DWH spill should be modified to accurately reflect the role of sunlight